The College Football Playoff Championship kicks off on Monday, 7:30 p.m. ET, between the Miami Hurricanes (13-2) and Indiana Hoosiers (15-0). It can be seen on ESPN, Fubo, Sling TV, and YouTube TV — and with four networks on the game, you basically have no excuse if you miss it.
Nine-seed Miami has won two of three playoff games as underdogs. The field's top seed has looked the part, as Indiana boasts a +34.5 average margin of victory in the CFP.
Below, we’ll make an Indiana vs. Miami CFP Championship preview, highlighting position vs. position matchups. What could be the top picks among player projections on PrizePicks?
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National Championship Game Preview: Miami vs. Indiana, Position vs. Position
Let’s take an in-depth look at the final college football matchup of the season. Which positional matchups could help us make us Miami vs. Indiana picks on PrizePicks?
Miami QB vs. Indiana Pass Defense Matchup
According to Game On Paper, Miami has been most efficient through the air, posting 0.17 expected points added (EPA) per dropback (17th) compared to -0.04 EPA per rushing attempt (98th).
Indiana gives up 6.3 yards per passing attempt (23rd) and -0.08 EPA per dropback (29th). The Hoosiers’ pass defense has continued to perform well in the CFP, allowing only 6.2 yards per passing attempt.
For the Canes, they’re totaling only 6.1 yards per passing attempt in the CFP, falling from 8.1 on the season (24th). After recording only 169.7 passing yards per game over the last three games, Miami QB Carson Beck is projected to have 198.5 passing yards by PrizePicks.
Considering Beck has been under 140 passing yards in two of three playoff clashes, IU’s pass defense could cause problems for the veteran QB.
Indiana QB vs. Miami Pass Defense Matchup
The reigning Heisman Trophy winner, Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza, is perhaps the most notable player of the CFP Championship, so it's little surprised that PrizePicks Team Picks lists Mendoza as the favorite to be the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft (1.04x payout).
He’s passed the eye test by logging 184.5 passing yards per game and 10.3 yards per passing attempt in the CFP. Furthermore, Mendoza has compiled 8 pass TDs and 0 INTs in the postseason.
The Hurricanes have surrendered 282.0 passing yards per game and 7.6 yards per passing attempt over the last two. Mendoza excelles in pushing the ball downfield in the CFP, emphasizing his favorable matchup against the Canes’ secondary.
Miami RB vs. Indiana Run Defense Matchup
While Miami’s passing attack hasn’t been as productive of late, the run game has picked up the slack. The Hurricanes’ strides on the ground have played a crucial part in this run, as they’ve totaled 173.0 rushing yards per contest and 4.5 yards per rushing attempt.
Miami RB Mark Fletcher Jr. has feasted with a large workload in the playoffs, racking up 19.3 carries and 131.7 rushing yards per contest (6.8 yards per carry). His 67.5 rushing yard projection on PrizePicks is far below his recent averages.
Indiana dominates the ground game on both sides of the ball, ceding only 3.0 yards per rushing attempt (10th) and 77.6 rushing yards per game (third). Opponents are averaging a measly 24.5 rushing yards per contest against IU in the CFP, in large part thanks to negative game scripts.
The Hurricanes’ ability to compete in the run game could be their biggest key on Monday.
Indiana RB vs. Miami Run Defense Matchup
Indiana has only three one-score wins on the season. In this split, it recorded 110.0 rushing yards per game and 3.5 yards per rushing attempt. For context, the Hoosiers feature one of the nation’s top rushing attacks with 212.7 rushing yards per contest (11th) and 5.2 yards per carry (19th).
If Miami is to pull off an upset as 7.5-point underdogs, it likely must contend on the ground. This includes slowing the run game, and the Canes surrender only 3.0 yards per rushing attempt (eighth) and 86.1 rushing yards per contest (fifth). They’ve remained stingy by giving up 85.0 rushing yards per game and 3.2 yards per carry in the playoffs.
Indiana RB Kaelon Black and RB Roman Hemby are each projected to have 59.5 rushing yards on PrizePicks. Black has been the most productive back of the CFP, logging 77.0 rushing yards per game.
Miami OL vs. Indiana DL Matchup
If Miami has an advantage for the CFP Championship, it’s in the trenches. There’s a clear talent difference, as NFL Mock Draft Database’s 2026 Consensus Big Board ranks two Hoosier linemen in the top 160 prospects compared to the Hurricanes boasting four.
In fact, Mel Kiper of ESPN ranks Miami OT Francis Mauigoa as the fourth-best prospect and top offensive linemen for the 2026 NFL Draft. Miami OG Anez Cooper (Second Team) and OT Markel Bell (Third Team) earned All-ACC honors, as well.
PFF ranks the Hurricanes first in pass block grade and 12th in run block grade. Indiana sits fourth in run defense grade, but it’s 31st in pass rush grade.
Following the Big Ten Championship Game, Indiana DE Stephen Daley (78.2 PFF player grade) suffered a season-ending injury. Hoosiers DE Mikail Kamara (160th on the 2026 big board) stands out as IU’s top defensive line talent. Indiana has dominated without Daley, but that absence could finally be evident on Monday.
Indiana OL vs. Miami DL Matchup
Miami could be even more impressive on the defensive line, with Hurricanes DE Rueben Bain Jr. (13th) and Akheem Mesidor (16th) carrying first-round grades on Kiper’s 2026 big board.
Bain’s recorded 4 sacks and 21 pressures in the postseason, and Mesidor sports 3 sacks and 19 pressures during the CFP. This is gearing up to be Miami’s biggest advantage, as Indiana ranks 72nd in sack rate allowed.
Indiana OT Carter Smith is 76th on the 2026 big board and has allowed just 1 pressure since the Big Ten Championship Game. Hoosiers OT Kahlil Benson has been far more vulnerable, though, giving up 4 pressures in the CFP semifinal.
If Miami can limit the run game, forcing Indiana to dropback more often, this defensive line’s pass rush is capable of taking over.
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Make Miami vs. Indiana Predictions on PrizePicks
Ultimately, the run game could be the biggest key among Indiana vs. Miami position-by-position matchups. The Hoosiers have thoroughly dominated all season when rushing efficiently, but Miami features a strong defensive front seven capable of limiting the strength.
Miami RB Mark Fletcher and Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza are a pair of enticing targets for player projections.
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