The Saturday college basketball slate tips off with an absolute heater of a matchup at Cameron Indoor Stadium, as the No. 11 Virginia Cavaliers take on the No. 1 Duke Blue Devils at 12:00 p.m. ET on ESPN.
With the ACC race nearing its breaking point and teams also jockeying for NCAA Tournament positioning, the stakes don’t get much higher for a February clash.
Below, we’ll break down our Virginia vs. Duke prediction and picks for Saturday’s game. Make your college basketball picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
Statistical rankings used in this article are accurate entering Friday's play.
{{nba_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Virginia vs. Duke Prediction, Spread
Head coach Ryan Odom’s first year with the Cavaliers couldn’t be going much better. His team is 25-3, good for their best run since 2018-19’s 35-3 campaign. Thanks to a 13-2 conference record, UVA sits just one game back of Duke in the ACC.
Under Jon Scheyer, the Blue Devils just keep on producing. They’re 26-2 overall on the year, also boasting a 14-1 record in ACC play. The nation’s top-ranked program essentially controls its own destiny the rest of the way.
Saturday marks the 149th meeting between Virginia and Duke dating back to 1949. The Blue Devils own a commanding 108-40 series lead, including a +9.5 average scoring margin.
Virginia vs. Duke Spread
Virginia enters Saturday’s game as 9.5-point road underdogs, returning a 5.55x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
Duke is a home favorite with a 1.13x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 34 states.
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils -9.5
- Game Winner Payout: Cavaliers 5.55x | Blue Devils 1.13x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Virginia vs. Duke Prediction on Spread
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your Virginia vs. Duke prediction on spread for Saturday, February 28 on PrizePicks.
- This year’s Virginia team hasn’t been road underdogs too often, but they’ve capitalized each time, sitting 3-0 against the spread. Duke is just 6-7 ATS as a home favorite.
- UVA owns a top-50 offense, ranking 41st in scoring (82.3 PPG), 42nd in effective field goal clip (55.1%), and 49th in 3-point efficiency (36.3%).
- It’s the other end of the floor where the Cavs thrive, ranking fourth in eFG% (44.8), fifth in 2-point percentage (44.8), and eighth in points per shot (0.991).
- Duke may not be a sharp-shooting team from deep (34.9%, 126th), but their work inside the arc (61.5%, fourth) is some of the best in the country.
- Scheyer’s crew is dominant on defense, holding foes to just 22.8 made shots per game (16th) and 0.981 points per look (sixth).
Virginia vs. Duke Picks for PrizePicks Today: 2/28/26
Here are three top Virginia vs. Duke picks to target for Saturday, February 28 on PrizePicks. Player stat projections via PrizePicks are headlined by F Thijs De Ridder, F Cameron Boozer, and G-F Isaiah Evans.
Virginia F Thijs De Ridder vs. Duke Projection: 19.5 Pts + Rebs
- On the year, De Ridder puts up 22.3 combined points and rebounds per game. That number is up to 23.0 in conference play.
- The true freshman cans shots to the tune of a 59.6 true shooting percentage and snags boards at a 12.6% rate.
- In his first 14 games, De Ridder averages 16.4 PPG on 40% from deep. Although the latter efficiency has fallen to an ugly 22.9% in his last 14, he’s still poured in 15.6 points each night.
- Per Bart Torvik, against top-50 programs, De Ridder holds a 27.8% usage rate. That split is 26.7% versus all opponents.
{{nba_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Duke F Cameron Boozer vs. Virginia Projection: 32.5 Pts + Rebs
- Entering the weekend, Boozer brings home 32.8 points and rebounds per game. Against ACC foes, his average holds steady at 32.6.
- The projected top NBA Draft pick owns a 67.0 TS% on the year. In conference play, it rises to an otherworldly 68.5.
- Boozer leads all Division I players in adjusted points over replacement per game (7.5) and BPM (18.8).
- A whopping 221 players are 6-foot-9 or shorter and have logged as much of their team’s minutes (81.2%) as Boozer. In that group, he ranks seventh in defensive rebounding rate at 22.4%.
Duke G-F Isaiah Evans vs. Virginia Projection: 14.5 Pts + Asts
- In 28 games, Evans averages 15.7 points and assists. Even with a 0.9 assist average in ACC play, his combined ledger increases to 17.6.
- From non-conference to conference action, Evans’ TS% improves from 58.5 to 61.4.
- Keep an eye on 3-pointers from the top of the key. Per CBB Shot Charts, Evans shoots 32% on such hoists, and UVA’s defense allows a 36% conversion rate on 176 attempts.
- While Evans isn’t much of an assist maestro, he does take care of the rock. Sixty ACC players have a usage rate of at least 20%, and his 10.9% turnover clip is sixth-lowest.
Make #11 Virginia vs. #1 Duke Picks on PrizePicks
Virginia vs. Duke Saturday ACC picks are just one of many ways hoops fans can get in on the daily college basketball action.
You can make your picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 34 states.
Stick around with the Playbook for continued CBB predictions, picks, and news.
