Reigning MLS Champions Inter Miami seek their first win of the Major League Soccer season when they visit Orlando City on Sunday on Apple TV at 7:00 p.m. ET.
The latest edition of the Florida Derby sees both Inter Miami (0-0-1) and Orlando City (0-0-1) coming off Matchday 1 defeats. The Herons were thoroughly dominated on the road by LAFC, while the Lions felt unfortunate not to secure a draw after a strong second-half showing at home against the New York Red Bulls.
Below, we’ll break down our Orlando City vs. Inter Miami prediction and picks for Sunday's game. Make your picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
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Orlando City vs. Inter Miami Prediction, Picks for Sunday, March 1
There is never any love lost between these two clubs. The last meeting on Aug. 27, 2025, saw Lionel Messi’s side eliminate Orlando City from the Leagues Cup semifinal with a 3-1 victory in Miami.
Neither team likely comes into this match feeling great about their opening performances. LAFC allowed Inter Miami to hold 68% possession last weekend, then simply ripped them to shreds on the counterattack in a 3-0 victory.
Messi failed to put a single one of his 4 shots on target, and there were signs of incohesion between him and some of his new teammates. His frustrations boiled over after the final whistle, when he was caught on camera chasing the referee down the tunnel.
Inter Miami played the majority of their roster in a 2-1 friendly win in Puerto Rico on Thursday night. Two players they did not feature were ST Luis Suarez or LB Sergio Reguilon. Both have officially been ruled out of today’s match.
That’s to be expected, given the loss of both MF Sergio Busquets and LB Jordi Alba. With that said, it was still concerning seeing the ease with which LAFC — who were out-passed 682 to 281, according to FotMob — were able to slice through the Miami midfield and defense.
Orlando City could seek to do the same. It was their game plan last season, although it led to just one victory in three competitive meetings. The triumph was a 4-1 win in their only home showdown on Aug. 10, 2025 — a match that Messi missed completely.
The Lions are also jelling with some key new signings but looked much improved after halftime adjustments against New York. After managing just 0.05 xG from 2 first-half shots, they registered 2.36 xG after the break.
New MF Luis Otavio missed the opener, and MF Wilder Cartagena was removed after just 14 minutes against the Red Bulls and is a doubt for today’s match. They’re also still missing starting CB Robin Jansson as he rehabs a broken foot.
The threat shown after the interval last week may give the home side hope they can punish Inter Miami on the counter. MF Martin Ojeda could look to get more open-play touches than the 37 he had in the opening match, from which he managed 3 shots and created 3 chances.
The back line should also aim to provide more help than they did. The Red Bulls managed 4.64 xG on the day but were held at bay by GK Maxime Crepeau’s Man of the Match performance; he stopped 11 shots.
Orlando City vs. Inter Miami Spread, Total Goals, Payouts
Orlando City enters Sunday’s game as home underdogs, returning a 3.33x payout ($100 entry pays out $333) on PrizePicks Team Picks if the Lions win outright.
Inter Miami are road favorites with a 1.92x ($192 payout on a $100 entry) payout if the Herons win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 34 states.
- Winner Payout: Orlando City 3.33x | Tie 3.84x | Inter Miami 1.92x
- Spread: Orlando City +1.5 (1.33x Payout) | Inter Miami -1.5 (3.33x Payout)
- Total Goals: 3.5 (Over – 2.17x)
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Orlando City vs. Inter Miami Prediction on Total Goals
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your Orlando City vs. Inter Miami prediction on total goals for Sunday, March 1, on PrizePicks.
- Inter Miami led all of MLS last season by scoring 81. Orlando City scored 63, third-most in the Eastern Conference.
- The 26 goals Orlando City conceded at home were tied for ninth-most in MLS.
- Only two teams in MLS had more goals scored on the road last season than Inter Miami, who found the back of the net 37 times in 17 matches. Inter Miami's road matches saw an average of 3.88 goals scored.
- There were an average of 3.64 goals scored in Orlando City’s 17 home matches in 2025.
- Orlando City lost 2-1 at home last week to NYRB, but the two teams combined for 6.85 expected goals, according to FotMob.
- LAFC defeated Inter Miami 3-0 in Los Angeles last weekend in a match that featured a combined 4.11 xG between the two sides.
- There were 12 total goals in the three competitive Orlando City vs. Inter Miami matches last season.
Orlando City vs. Inter Miami Projected Lineups
Here are the projected Orlando City vs. Inter Miami lineups for today's MLS match. Lineups are not official.
Orlando City Lineup vs. Inter Miami: Projected 4-2-3-1
- Goalkeeper: Maxime Crepeau
- Defense: Griffin Dorsey, David Brekalo, Iago, Adrian Marin
- Midfield: Braian Ojeda, Wilder Cartagena, Marco Pasalic, Martin Ojeda, Tyrese Spicer
- Forwards: Duncan McGuire
Inter Miami Lineup vs. Orlando City: Projected 4-2-3-1
- Goalkeeper: Dayne St. Clair
- Defense: Ian Fray, Maximiliano Falcon, Micael, Noah Allen
- Midfield: Rodrigo De Paul, Yannick Bright, Mateo Silvetti, Lionel Messi, Telasco Segovia
- Forwards: German Berterame
Orlando City vs. Inter Miami Picks for MLS: Sunday, March 1
Here are three top Orlando City vs. Inter Miami picks to target on players for Sunday, March 1 for PrizePicks. Player stat projections via PrizePicks are headlined by Lionel Messi and Maxime Crepeau.
Inter Miami MF Lionel Messi vs. Orlando City: 50.5 Passes Attempted
- Messi attempted 49 passes in 90 minutes against LAFC last weekend, with the Herons holding 68% of possession.
- Messi started twice against Orlando City last season in his new role as Inter Miami’s number 10, and he had 55+ passes in both matches.
- Last season, the Argentinian averaged 46.92 passes per 90 in MLS play.
- Inter Miami averaged 56.8% possession last season, per WhoScored, but that number went up to 58.7% in three matches vs. Orlando City.
- The 47.7% average possession in MLS last season by Orlando City was the eighth-lowest of any club.
- Inter Miami attempted 682 passes in the opening match against LAFC.
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Orlando City GK Maxime Crepeau vs. Inter Miami: 3 Goalie Saves
- Crepeau made 11 saves in his club debut vs. New York Red Bulls last weekend.
- Inter Miami have averaged 6 shots on target over the last four competitive meetings vs. Orlando City.
- In 15 starts last season with the Portland Timbers, the Canadian GK posted a 70.3% save percentage while averaging 3.47 saves per match.
- The Herons took 12 shots against LAFC last weekend, putting 3 SOT without scoring a goal.
Inter Miami MF Rodrigo De Paul vs. Orlando City
Rodrigo De Paul Projections via PrizePicks: 1.5 Fouls (Goblin), 0.5 Shots (Goblin)
- De Paul committed an average of 1.64 fouls per 90 minutes in 17 matches, according to FotMob.
- The Argentine midfielder had one foul last week against LAFC.
- De Paul averaged 1.75 fouls in his final four matches last season, committing multiple fouls in three of those outings.
- In 17 MLS matches, De Paul attempted 15 shots.
- De Paul tried a season-high three shots in his Inter Miami debut vs. Orlando City on Aug. 10, 2025, playing in place of Messi as the number 10 for Inter Miami.
Make Your Orlando City vs. Inter Miami Picks on PrizePicks
Anytime Orlando City and Inter Miami get together, we may see fireworks. This has been one of the most contentious rivalries in MLS the past few seasons, and both sides want their first victory at the expense of their bitter foes.
While the Florida Derby headlines the Major League Soccer slate today, Orlando City vs. Inter Miami is just one of the matches where fans can get in on the real-money action on PrizePicks today.
You can make your MLS picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats like shots or goals, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 34 states.
Stick around with the Playbook for continued MLS predictions, picks, and analysis until a champion is crowned.
