Behind Arizona’s 13-2 mark, four Big 12 teams are knotted with 11-4 conference records. Two Big 12 matchups feature teams in the top five of conference standings clashing, including the No. 16 Texas Tech Red Raiders (21-7) against the No. 4 Iowa State Cyclones (24-4).
Despite a recent season-shifting injury, Texas Tech is 5-1 in its last six games. Iowa State, meanwhile, has been shaky with a 3-2 record over its past five outings.
Let’s break down Saturday’s 4:00 p.m. ET bout on CBS, led by a Texas Tech vs. Iowa State prediction and picks. Make your NCAAB picks on PrizePicks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
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Texas Tech vs. Iowa State Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Texas Tech is 6-4 in the last 10 head-to-head matchups, but Iowa State has enjoyed 3-1 outright and against the spread (ATS) records in the last four battles. The over is a clear trend, with a 7-3 mark over the past 10 bouts.
Both squads boast 7-3 ATS records in the last 10 games. Furthermore, the Cyclones’ strong defense has dominated, resulting in a 7-3 under-trend since January 20.
Texas Tech vs. Iowa State Spread, Over/Under
Following a season-ending injury to Texas Tech’s leading piece, Iowa State is a notable 9.5-point favorite on Saturday on PrizePicks Team Picks. Each team leans on a slow pace, impacting today’s 144.5 over/under.
The Cyclones are home favorites with a 1.17x payout to win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 34 states.
- Spread: Iowa State Cyclones -9.5
- Over/Under: 144.5
- Game Winner Payout: Texas Tech 5x | Iowa State 1.17x
Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
Texas Tech vs. Iowa State Prediction on Spread
On February 17, Texas Tech F JT Toppin, who led the team with 21.8 points per game (PPG) and 10.8 rebounds per game (RPG), suffered a season-ending knee injury.
The Red Raiders have appeared in two games since the injury, impressing with an average margin of +20, paired with a 2-0 ATS record. TTU’s scoring did not fall off, posting 90.0 PPG in the two-game split.
TTU was hot from 3-point land in both games, shooting 43.4% while converting 11.5 made treys per game. The Red Raiders shoot 39.2% from deep (98th percentile) and post 11.4 made triples per game (99th percentile) on the season.
Furthermore, Iowa State is in the 22nd percentile in 3-point shot distribution allowed and surrenders 23.7 3-point shots per game.
According to Bart Torvik, the Cyclones rank eighth in adjusted defensive efficiency. The unit creates chaos by forcing 15.0 turnovers per game (98th percentile), but Texas Tech takes care of the ball with only 10.6 turnovers per contest.
Toppin’s injury hurts the Red Raiders’ postseason aspirations, such as carrying a 16.66x payout to appear in the NCAA Tournament semifinals, per PrizePicks Team Picks. However, this remains a quality team that potentially sports advantages to stay competitive against ISU.
Texas Tech vs. Iowa State Picks for PrizePicks Today: 2/28/26
For PrizePicks college basketball picks, Texas Tech G Christian Anderson has improved his play, and G Tamin Lipsey could expose a new Red Raiders weakness.
Texas Tech G Christian Anderson vs. Iowa State Projection: 20.5 Points
- Anderson has immediately stepped up in Toppin’s absence, logging 26.0 PPG compared to his 19.6 season average.
- He’s cashed in at least 3 triples in seven consecutive games and shot 43.9% from deep in the split. Saturday brings a favorable matchup against Iowa State’s suspect perimeter defense.
- The sophomore guard recorded a healthy 16.0 field goal attempts per game in his past two outings, well above his 13.2 season-long average.
- After averaging 22.3 PPG while shooting 51.7% from the field in his last four appearances, Anderson could continue to carry the water today.
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Iowa State G Tamin Lipsey vs. Texas Tech Projection: 12.5 Points
- Toppin was also a significant piece on defense, leading TTU with a 4.07 Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating (DBPR), per EvanMiya.
- Without the 6’9” forward’s 1.7 blocks per game, the Red Raiders’ interior defense could slide.
- Lipsey shoots only 28.6% on triples, but he’s efficient with a 56.3% mark on 2-pointers.
- Texas Tech G Jaylen Petty could be his primary defender; he carries a mediocre 1.60 DBPR.
- The Cyclones’ floor general is averaging 12.8 PPG in his last nine games and 13.0 PPG for the year.
Make #16 Texas Tech vs. #4 Iowa State Picks on PrizePicks
A part of Saturday’s loaded college basketball slate with five top-25 matchups, Texas Tech vs. Iowa State is one way to get in on the action.
Make your Texas Tech vs. Iowa State picks at PrizePicks, where you can earn real-money rewards for your predictions if you’re right. Just choose players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and follow the hoops action to see if your picks hit. You can make picks on winners, spreads, and over/unders on Team Picks, now available in 34 states.
Keep tabs on the Playbook for continued college basketball predictions, picks, and news.
