A rematch of last year’s thrilling Western Conference semifinals takes place tonight when the Denver Nuggets (37-22) travel to the Paycom Center to take on the Oklahoma City Thunder (45-15). This is only the second of four meetings between these two teams this season, with OKC winning the first 121-111 in Denver.
Nuggets vs. Thunder tips off at 9:30 p.m. ET on Friday from Oklahoma City, OK, live on ESPN.
Below, we’ll break down our Nuggets vs. Thunder prediction and Friday NBA picks for PrizePicks. Use PrizePicks NBA to make picks on player projections and earn real money if you’re right.
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Nuggets vs. Thunder Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
It’s been an unfortunate season of injuries for Denver this year. Every time they get a body back, it seems two more go down. Four of the Nuggets' five starters have missed at least 16 games, and the one who hasn’t, PG Jamal Murray, is listed as questionable tonight.
Despite all this, the Nuggets sit at 37-22 and are just half a game back of the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference. With C Nikola Jokic surrounded by perhaps the most talented roster he's ever had, this is not a team anyone wants to run into in the playoffs.
Denver to win this year’s NBA Finals is currently returning a 6.25x payout for "Yes" on PrizePicks Team Picks, the third-shortest return for a team to win it all.
The road to the Larry O’Brien Trophy, deservedly, runs through Oklahoma City. The reigning champs haven’t been the model of consistency health-wise either, but all they do is continue to perform no matter who dons their jersey. Four of the Thunder’s five starters have missed at least 11 games, but a key one makes his return tonight.
Reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been cleared to return from his abdominal injury. Having missed 11 games so far, he can still technically miss 6 more while remaining eligible for regular-season awards.
“Yes” on SGA to be the back-to-back NBA MVP is currently returning a 1.42x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks.
Nuggets vs. Thunder Spread, Over/Under
The Thunder enter Friday’s game as 6.5-point home favorites, returning a 1.31x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Nuggets are road underdogs with a 3.22x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 34 states.
- Spread: Oklahoma City Thunder -6.5 (1.66x payout)
- Over/Under: 233.5 (1.81x payout on over)
- Game Winner Payout: Nuggets 3.22x | Thunder 1.31x
Team Picks payouts are live as of writing and are subject to change.
Nuggets vs. Thunder Injury Report
Let’s dive into the full Nuggets vs. Thunder injury report for Friday, via NBA.com.
Denver Nuggets Injury Report
- F Aaron Gordon (hamstring): OUT
- F Peyton Watson (hamstring): OUT
- F Spencer Jones (shoulder): Questionable
- PG Jamal Murray (illness): Questionable
- G Jalen Pickett (knee): Questionable
- SG Julian Strawther (toe): Probable
Oklahoma City Thunder Injury Report
- SG Ajay Mitchell (abdomen/ankle): OUT
- F-G Jalen Williams (hamstring): OUT
Nuggets vs. Thunder Prediction on Over/Under
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your Nuggets vs. Thunder prediction on the over/under for Friday, February 27, on PrizePicks.
- Nuggets games are 37-22-0 (62.7%) to the over. On the road, that number improves to 22-10-0 (68.8%). Both of those are the best covering percentages in the league.
- The Thunder are no slouches at scoring, either. They have gone 32-28-0 (53.3%) to the over, the sixth-best mark in the league.
- Despite their injury-riddled season, the Nuggets have consistently brought an elite offense. They lead the entire league in offensive rating (120.7), true shooting percentage (61.3%), and effective field goal percentage (57.3%).
- The Thunder, meanwhile, rank sixth in offensive rating (117.6), third in TS% (60.1%), and fifth in eFG% (56.1%).
- Neither team plays a particularly speedy brand of basketball, with OKC ranking 15th in pace and Denver sitting 22nd.
Nuggets vs. Thunder Picks for PrizePicks Today: 2/27/26
Here are two of the top Nuggets vs. Thunder picks to consider for Friday, February 27th, on PrizePicks. Today’s NBA player projections for PrizePicks are headlined by C Nikola Jokic and PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Nuggets C Nikola Jokic vs. Thunder Projection: 50.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts
- Jokic is averaging 51.7 points, rebounds, and assists (PRA) per game.
- He has been slightly more efficient offensively on the road, shooting 0.8% better from the field and 2.4% better from deep. This has led to him averaging 0.4 more PPG away from Ball Arena.
- The Thunder allow opponents to shoot the seventh-most 3-point attempts per game (38.7) and convert them at the fifth-highest rate in the league (36.8%).
- On the road, Jokic is shooting a career-high 5.1 3-pointers per game at a personal-best 42.4% clip.
- Oklahoma City gives up the eighth-most rebounds per game (45.3).
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Thunder PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander vs. Nuggets Projection: 38.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts
- Keep your eyes peeled closer to tip-off for a potential minutes restriction. As of now, there is nothing that specifies Gilgeous-Alexander, who produces 42.6 PRA per game, will be limited.
- The Nuggets rank 20th in the NBA in defensive rating (115.8).
- Over their last 10 games, the Nuggets' defense has allowed opponents to shoot 43.7 3-point attempts per game, by far the most in the league.
- SGA is shooting 4.6 3-point attempts per game at a 39% clip, the second-best 3-point percentage of his career.
- Shai went for 34-5-13 (52 PRA) in his only outing vs. Denver this year and had More than this projection in five of his seven games against the Nuggets in last year’s playoffs.
Make Nuggets vs. Thunder Picks on PrizePicks
We have a potential Western Conference Finals preview tonight, and you can get all your action for it and every other game this Friday on PrizePicks.
You can make your Nuggets vs. Thunder picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 34 states.
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