The bittersweet ending of yet another phenomenal college football season is here. The Indiana Hoosiers (15-0) look to complete their perfect season against the Miami Hurricanes (13-2) in the College Football Playoff National Championship.
The Hoosiers have been the best story in football — perhaps even the best in sports. With a win, they’ll cement themselves in the history books, especially given where this team was just two seasons ago (3-9).
The Hurricanes aim to keep their own Cinderella story going by winning their sixth national title and first since 2001. Monday's game kicks off at 7:30 p.m. ET from Miami, FL, live on ESPN.
Below, we’ll break down our Miami vs. Indiana prediction and picks for the CFP National Championship. Use PrizePicks CFB to make picks on player projections and earn real money if you’re right.
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Miami vs. Indiana Prediction, Spread, Over/Under, Injuries
Both teams enter the National Championship relatively healthy, but there are a few key absences on both sides.
Indiana will be missing two of its starting defensive linemen, Stephen Daley and Kellan Wyatt. Daley is Indiana's highest PFF-graded EDGE defender at 79.3. He has an elite 87 grade as a run defender. Wyatt is also graded highly as a run defender (76.3).
On an Indiana front that is very talented but also relatively thin, these two absences could prove massive.
Miami is without starting TE Elija Lofton. He doesn’t have a massive role but does lead the TE group with 23 receptions, 218 yards, and 3 TDs. The Canes are also missing CB Xavier Lucas for the first half as he serves a suspension for a targeting penalty last week.
Miami vs. Indiana Over/Under, Spread
Indiana enters Monday’s game as 7.5-point favorites, returning a 1.29x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
Miami is the underdogs with a 3.33x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Indiana Hoosiers -7.5 (1.88x payout)
- Over/Under: 48.5 (2.04x payout on over)
- Game Winner Payout: Indiana 1.29x | Miami 3.33x
Team Picks data is live as of writing and are subject to change.
Miami vs. Indiana Prediction on Over/Under for National Championship
Below, we dive into a Miami vs. Indiana pick on the over/under from PrizePicks Team Picks in the National Championship.
- Both teams rank in the bottom 10 in CFB in seconds per play. Limited possessions could mean limited opportunities to score points.
- When they do have the ball, both teams are content to run and keep the clock moving. Miami and Indiana rank 45th and 21st, respectively, in carries per contest.
- The Canes may be set up to find success on the ground, with Indiana missing two of its best run defenders in Daley and Wyatt.
- Indiana has only faced two other defenses ranked in the top 10 nationally this season: Iowa and Ohio State. They scored 20 and 13 points in those two games.
- Miami QB Carson Beck has been dreadful under duress, ranking 91st out of 137 QBs when faced with pressure.
- Indiana is 16th out of 136 teams in sack percentage (8.42%).
Miami vs. Indiana Picks for National Championship
Here are the top Miami vs. Indiana player picks for the CFP National Championship on PrizePicks.
Miami QB Carson Beck vs. Indiana Projection: 201.5 Pass Yards
- Carson Beck has finished with Less than this projection in two of his three starts in the CFP. Texas Tech and Ohio State are more on par to this Indiana defense; Beck had 103 and 138 yards in those two games.
- Per PFF, Beck's passer rating drops from 115.1 when clean to an abysmal 65.6 when under pressure.
- Indiana being down some critical run stoppers could let Miami lean on the run even more than usual.
- Per NCAA Stats, Indiana ranks 12th in pass defense efficiency at 112.30.
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Indiana RB Roman Hemby vs. Miami Projection: 61.5 Rush Yards
- Indiana has the third-most rushes of 20+ yards (33). Miami’s defense ranks in the bottom 10 in explosive rush rate allowed (10.5%). They also sit 88th in rush explosives yielded.
- Indiana’s go-to game plan is to run the ball. They average 39 rushing attempts, 21st in college football.
- The strength of Miami’s defense is its ferocious pass rush, keyed by DEs Ruben Bain Jr and Akheem Mesidor. The best way to mitigate an elite pass rush is to run the ball early and often.
- According to Game on Paper, Miami’s defense profiles as a run-funnel, slotting in at 14th in EPA per play against the pass (-0.15) but 79th in the same stat versus the run (0.04).
Make Miami vs. Indiana CFP National Championship Picks on PrizePicks
This could shape up to be one of the most entertaining CFP National Championship in some time.
In the span of two years, Indiana HC Curt Cignetti turned his group into one of the best college football teams of all time. Miami, meanwhile, has a chance to win a National Championship in their home stadium — a feat that has never been done before.
You can make Miami vs. Indiana picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 30 states.
Keep it here with the Playbook for continued CFB picks, predictions, and news all season long.
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