New Mexico State vs. Florida State Prediction, Spread, Picks for Week 0

The 2026 college football season is finally here, and we have some great games on Saturday, August 29. One of the more lopsided games on the slate sees the Florida State Seminoles host the New Mexico State Aggies. FSU is an overwhelming favorite, entering as 31.5-point favorites on the spread, per PrizePicks Team Picks.

This is the first meeting between these two teams since 1964, when FSU won 36-0. Is another beatdown ahead, or will NMSU pull off what would likely be the upset of the season in Tallahassee?

Below, we’ll break down our New Mexico State vs. Florida State prediction and picks for Saturday’s CFB game in Week 0, including the spread for PrizePicks.

Make your New Mexico State vs. Florida State picks on PrizePicks now!

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New Mexico State vs. Florida State Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for Week 0

NMSU HC Tony Sanchez will be entering his third season with the Las Cruces, and he will surely be looking for some improvement following a 4-8 finish last year. Simply keeping tonight’s game competitive could prove a big morale boost for his Aggies.

If they are to take a step forward, they may need to field a better run game, as they ranked dead last nationally with 77.3 rushing yards per game on a dismal 2.6 yards per carry last season.

Furman transfer QB Trey Hedden will start for NMSU. Hedden will likely have to deal with the Seminoles living in his backfield this evening, but fortunately, the junior signal-caller has some experience with that. He faced 119 pressures over 419 passing attempts for the Paladins last season.

After improving 2024’s 2-10 season to 5-7 in 2025, the hot seat is firmly under FSU HC Mike Norvell. He will navigate a brand-new offensive line and an offensive coordinator who has never called plays at the college level.

A potentially strong wide receiver core could work in Norvell's favor, headlined by last year's breakout WR Duce Robinson. Plus, a havoc-minded defense tracking to be a top-40 unit in college football further helps.

Auburn transfer QB Ashton Daniels leads the Seminoles this season. It's been a bumpy two years for Daniels, who recorded just 13 TDs to 14 INTs in his final two seasons with the Tigers.

He will likely rely heavily on his wide receivers to bail him out of some turnover-worthy throws, paired with a defense that can provide favorable field position.

New Mexico State vs. Florida State Spread, Over/Under for Week 0 – Saturday, August 29

FSU enters Saturday’s game as 31.5-point favorites against the Aggies via PrizePicks Team Picks.

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Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

New Mexico State vs. Florida State Prediction on Spread for Week 0 – 8/29/26

Here are the key stats and trends behind our New Mexico State vs. Florida State prediction on the spread for Saturday, August 29.

• NMSU may have an incredibly difficult time scoring points tonight. It was the worst rushing team in FBS last season, while the FSU defense allowed just 3.6 YPC (27th).
• When they take to the air, the Aggies will be trusting an incredibly green offensive line to hold off what is shaping up to be a havoc-oriented defense—a staple under FSU DC Tony White.
• QB Trey Hedden has thrown 22 INTs in 20 starts at the FCS level. He could easily give a couple to the Seminoles.
• Meanwhile, FSU should be able to move the ball at will against a depleted and undersized Aggies defensive front.
• FSU has a ton of RB depth that can attack in waves against an NMSU run defense that ranked 90th last year, giving up 165.0 rushing yards per game.
• Lastly, there is a distinct motivation edge in FSU’s favor. Mike Norvell will be itching to prove that the last two seasons' poor results are a thing of the past, while QB Ashton Daniels seeks to make a name for himself following what can only be described as a disappointing tenure with the Auburn Tigers. 

Lock in your New Mexico State vs. Florida State prediction on PrizePicks before Saturday’s CFB game.

New Mexico State vs. Florida State Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks – 8/29/26

Here are the top New Mexico State vs. Florida State picks to target on PrizePicks for Saturday, August 29. Today’s CFB picks for PrizePicks include QB Trey Hedden and RB Ousmane Kromah.

New Mexico State QB Trey Hedden vs. Florida State: 165.5 Pass Yards

• NMSU could have little to no success running the ball against this Florida State defensive line.
• That leaves the path of “least” resistance on the right arm of QB Trey Hedden, who may throw early and often tonight.
• As 31.5-point underdogs, it seems likely that the Aggies will be forced to abandon the run sometime around the mid-second quarter, which could lead to increased opportunity for Hedden to rack up some yardage in garbage time.
• It came against much worse competition, but it is worth noting that Hedden cleared this projection in 11 of his 12 starts last season.

Add Trey Hedden to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

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Florida State RB Ousmane Kromah vs. New Mexico State: 75.5 Rush Yards

• Ousmane Kromah is a legit RB talent. He was the third-rated RB prospect in the 2025 class, stands at 6’1" and 220 pounds, and runs a 4.40 40-yard dash.
• There has been a ton of chatter from Tallahassee that Kromah has been the leader of this RB room and will get ample opportunity to solidify himself as one of the top backs in college football.
• He gets a fantastic matchup to start, as NMSU has a small and depleted defensive line that allowed 165.0 rushing yards per game last season.
• As 31.5-point favorites, the game script should work in Kromah’s favor; there's a good chance the Seminoles build a big lead by halftime and are running the ball upwards of 70% of the time in the second half.

Add Ousmane Kromah to your PrizePicks Lineup now.

Make New Mexico State vs. Florida State Picks on PrizePicks

Florida State will aim to put the stink of the last two seasons behind them with a dominant win over the New Mexico State Aggies on Saturday night. RB Ousmane Kromah seeks to become one of college football’s breakout stars this season after displaying oodles of promise in 2025. 

Will NMSU QB Trey Hedden be able to keep his team hanging around? Or will the Seminoles send the Aggies back to New Mexico with their tails between their legs?

Don't wait until kickoff—make your New Mexico State vs. Florida State pick on PrizePicks Team Picks. There is a wide variety of player stat projections on the CFB board, so you can make predictions on yards, field goals, and more! Just pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in on your predictions if you're right.

With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 36 states.

Keep it here with the Playbook for continued CFB picks, predictions, futures, and more as we jump into 2026.