Arsenal lead the Premier League table with just 10 matches remaining. They can claim three important points with a win over Chelsea in the London Derby on Sunday, with the match airing on Peacock at 11:30 a.m. ET.
The Gunners (18-7-3) enter the weekend sitting five points clear of Manchester City, and Mikel Arteta’s side may need to pick up every point possible. The Blues (12-9-6) are battling to claim a Champions League position and are unbeaten in their last six matches in the league.
Below, we’ll break down our Arsenal vs. Chelsea prediction and picks for Sunday's London Derby. Make your picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
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Arsenal vs. Chelsea Prediction, Preview for London Derby on Sunday, March 1
Arsenal have allowed Manchester City back in the title race after inexplicably dropping points to Wolves and Brentford in recent matches, but they’re still unbeaten in their last eight across all competitions.
More importantly, the Gunners haven’t lost to Chelsea since 2021, a span of 10 matches. They’ve won seven of those meetings, with the last two meetings coming in the EFL Cup semifinal this winter.
The Gunners are without MF Mikel Merino and FW Kai Havertz, with LB Ben White also missing. They’re quite deep, still, and are bolstered by a back line that has allowed just 19.2 xG against and 21 goals.
Arsenal also have a front line led by ST Viktor Gyokeres, who has 5 goals scored over his last five Premier League outings. Declan Rice and Martin Zubimendi are pulling the strings as the holding midfielders and could give the Blues issues in the center of the park.
For Chelsea, red cards have been a serious problem. They’ve picked up six so far, two more than any other Premier League side. Wesley Fofana was the latest victim, with the CB suspended after being sent off against Burnley.
His absence adds to depth concerns for the Chelsea back line. LB Marc Cucurella’s hamstring has him out, with CB Levi Colwill still a long-term absence.
Defense has been an issue for the Blues. Only West Ham have dropped more points from winning positions, as Chelsea have given away 19 points despite ranking fourth in the Premier League in minutes spent in the lead.
That said, only two of those points have been dropped away from Stamford Bridge. Chelsea have taken the third-most points away from home of anyone in the league, and manager Liam Rosenior has claimed victory in both away outings under his charge.
Chelsea have just one victory over Arsenal in their last 15 meetings. If that’s to change, they may need MF Cole Palmer and ST Joao Pedro to continue their strong run of form. Pedro has 5 goals and 1 assist in his last six league fixtures, while Palmer’s last three matches have seen him score 4 goals while adding an assist.
Arsenal vs. Chelsea Spread, Total Goals, Payouts
Arsenal enters Sunday’s game as overwhelming home favorites, returning a 1.58x payout ($100 entry pays out $158) on PrizePicks Team Picks if the Gunners win outright.
Chelsea are big road underdogs with a 5.26x ($526 payout on a $100 entry) payout if the Blues win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 34 states.
- Winner Payout: Arsenal 1.58x | Tie 4.00x | Chelsea 5.26x
- Spread: Arsenal -1.5 (2.56x Payout) | Chelsea +1.5 (1.49x Payout)
- Total Goals: 2.5 (Over – 1.69x)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes 1.75x | No 2.04x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Arsenal vs. Chelsea Prediction on Total Goals
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your Arsenal vs. Chelsea prediction on total goals for Sunday, March 1, on PrizePicks.
- Four of the last five matches between Arsenal and Chelsea have seen less than three goals scored.
- Chelsea have conceded just 15 goals in 13 away Premier League fixtures this season, the fourth-fewest of any club.
- Only 8 goals have been scored against Arsenal in 13 Premier League matches at the Emirates this season.
- The 25 away goals by the Blues are tied with Arsenal for the most of any club in the league.
- Only Manchester City have scored more goals in home matches this campaign than Arsenal (31 in 13 matches).
- Arsenal allow only 2.25 shots on target per match, the fewest in the league.
- Chelsea allow just 3.81 shots on target per match, the fifth-fewest in the league.
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Arsenal vs. Chelsea Projected Lineups for March 1, 2026
Here are the projected Arsenal vs. Chelsea lineups for today's Premier League London Derby match. Lineups are not official.
Arsenal Lineup vs. Chelsea: Projected 4-2-3-1
- Goalkeeper: Robert Sanchez
- Defense: Reece James, Tosin Adarabioyo, Trevoh Chalobah, Malo Gusto
- Midfield: Moises Caicedo, Andrey Santos, Cole Palmer, Enzo Fernandez, Pedro Neto
- Forwards: Joao Pedro
Chelsea Lineup vs. Arsenal: Projected 4-2-3-1
- Goalkeeper: David Raya
- Defense: Jurrien Timber, William Saliba, Gabriel, Piero Hincapie
- Midfield: Martin Zubamendi, Declan Rice, Bukayo Saka, Eberechi Eze, Leandro Trossard
- Forwards: Viktor Gyokeres
Arsenal vs. Chelsea Picks for Premier League: Sunday, March 1
Here are two top Arsenal vs. Chelsea picks to target for Sunday, March 1, on PrizePicks. Today’s soccer picks for PrizePicks are headlined by Declan Rice and Cole Palmer.
Arsenal MF Declan Rice vs. Chelsea
Declan Rice Projection via PrizePicks: 55.5 Passes Attempted
- Rice averages 62.76 passes per 90 minutes in Premier League play and has attempted more than 55 passes in six consecutive matches (and 63+ in four of his last six).
- He’s rarely subbed off early, having played a full 90 minutes in 17 of his last 18 Premier League appearances, according to WhoScored.
- The Gunners rank third in the Premier League in possession at 57.6% per match.
- Rice has averaged 62 passes per match in the three meetings with Chelsea across all competitions this campaign.
Chelsea MF Cole Palmer vs. Arsenal
Cole Palmer Projection via PrizePicks: 0.5 Shots on Target
- Palmer has put at least 1 shot on target in six consecutive Premier League matches and has at least 1 shot on target in 12 of 16 matches in league.
- Palmer’s 1.34 shots on target per 90 minutes ranks 10th among all eligible players in the Premier League. He's averaging 3.18 shots per 90 minutes, putting 42.14% of efforts on frame.
- Arsenal allow just 7.61 shots and 2.25 shots on target per 90 minutes, by far the fewest in the Premier League.
- Palmer is Chelsea’s primary free-kick and penalty taker.
- Chelsea have drawn the second-most fouls of any team in the Premier League, according to FBRef.
Make Your Arsenal vs. Chelsea Picks on PrizePicks
Arsenal take the pitch on Sunday vs. rival Chelsea with more than just bragging rights on the line. Failure to win could see their lead atop the Premier League table cut to as few as two points, and once again put pressure on Mikel Arteta’s side.
While the London Derby is the marquee match of the Premier League slate, Arsenal vs. Chelsea is just one of the matches where fans can get in on the real-money action on PrizePicks this weekend.
You can make your Premier League picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats like shots or goals, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 34 states.
Stick around with the Playbook for continued Premier League predictions, picks, and analysis.
