NASCAR Texas Grand Prix Prediction, Picks, Favorites to Win for Sunday

The NASCAR circuit heads to Austin, TX for the third race of the 2026 season on Sunday afternoon: the DuraMAX Texas Grand Prix.

Tyler Reddick won each of the first two events, capturing the checkered flag at the Daytona 500, followed by the Autotrader 400 in Atlanta last Sunday. 

Christopher Bell looks to win in Austin for a second straight season after finishing ahead of William Byron and Reddick last March.

Ahead of Sunday's race, let's dive into a Texas Grand Prix prediction for the event at Circuit of the Americas (COTA), starting at 3:30 p.m. ET on FOX. We'll also list some picks to win and driver picks for PrizePicks, where you can earn real money with your NASCAR Cup Series predictions if you're right.

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Texas Grand Prix Picks, Payouts, Favorites for PrizePicks

Shane van Gisbergen is the current favorite to win the Texas Grand Prix, returning a 2.17x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if he wins outright.

Connor Zilisch is right behind van Gisbergen with a 3.84x payout if he wins, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 34 states.

• Shane van Gisbergen 2.17x
• Connor Zilisch 3.84x
• Christopher Bell 9.09x
• Tyler Reddick 10x
• William Byron 11.11x
• Kyle Larson 16.66x
• Chase Elliott 16.66x

Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.

Texas Grand Prix Trends, Race Stats

Here are the key stats to know before locking in your Texas Grand Prix prediction for Sunday, March 1 on PrizePicks.

• This is the first road course race of the season, which is 95 laps, compared to 200 laps at Daytona and 271 laps in Atlanta.  
• The driver to watch on Sunday may be Shane van Gisbergen, who won the final five road course races last season.
• The lone road course event the native New Zealander lost was in Austin, where he closed sixth despite leading for 23 laps.
• Chris Buescher posted three top-seven finishes at road courses in 2025, including third at Watkins Glen and fourth at the Charlotte Roval. 
• Can Reddick pull off the trio of wins to start the season? The Toyota driver closed top-10 in five of six road course races in 2025, also winning in Austin back in 2023.
• Chase Elliott grabbed six victories on road courses from 2019-2021 but has not won in the past 25 road course events.
• Denny Hamlin last won a road course event in 2016 at Watkins Glen. In the final three road races last season, he closed 20th or lower.

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2026 DuraMAX Texas Grand Prix Picks & Driver Predictions

Here are four top DuraMAX Texas Grand Prix picks to target in Sunday's NASCAR race. Key PrizePicks player projections are headlined by four drivers: Shane van Gisbergen, Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick, and Chris Buescher.

To calculate NASCAR points, 1 point is received for a stage win, while the race winner picks up 40 points. Second place grabs 39 points, and that number decreases by one for each descending finish.

Shane van Gisbergen – 39.5 NASCAR Points, 2.17x to Win

• After finishing 30th at the Daytona 500, van Gisbergen closed sixth in Atlanta last week.
• Last season, SVG finished with five wins (all on road or street courses), tied for second-most behind Denny Hamlin with six.
• In the five races he won, van Gisbergen picked up three stage victories.
• SVG finished sixth in the 2025 race at Austin, placing third after the first stage and fifth following the second stage.

Christopher Bell – 35.5 NASCAR Points, 9.09x to Win

• Bell has struggled through the first two races, crashing at Daytona and placing 21st at Atlanta.
• In five career races in Austin, Bell owns a trio of top-three finishes, capped off by last March’s victory. 
• Bell compiled five top-five finishes at road courses in 2025, all good for 36 or more NASCAR points.
• In 32 career road races, the Toyota driver racked up three wins and 12 finishes inside the top five.

Tyler Reddick – 35.5 NASCAR Points, 10x to Win

• Reddick has seen plenty of success in Austin, finishing in the top five in each of the last four years.
• Since 2021, only two drivers have won three straight races: Bell and Kyle Larson. No one has ever won the first three events of a season.
• In six road course races last year, Reddick posted a pair of top-five finishes, including third in Austin.
• He has failed to win at a road course in the past 16 tries, with the last triumph coming at COTA in 2023.

Chris Buescher – 30.5 NASCAR Points, 22.22x to Win

• Buescher has put together a pair of respectable finishes so far, closing seventh at Daytona and 15th in Atlanta.
• Reaching 31 NASCAR points means a top-10 finish, which he accomplished four times in six road races in 2025.
• In the last three events in Austin, Buescher closed in the top eight each time.
• Buescher's lone victory in 43 road course events came at Watkins Glen in 2024.

Make NASCAR Texas Grand Prix Picks on PrizePicks

The Texas Grand Prix is a change from the first two races, moving to a road course. Can Reddick make history with a third straight win to lead off the season, or might van Gisbergen continue his road course domination?

You can make your NASCAR Texas Grand Prix picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick drivers, predict More or Less on at least two projections, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on race winners and more, now available in 34 states. 

Check out the Playbook throughout the season for more NASCAR picks, predictions, and news.