Most high-major programs have three games remaining in the college basketball regular season. With that said, conference titles are on the line in the upcoming week.
For Saturday’s collision between the No. 20 Arkansas Razorbacks (20-7) and the No. 7 Florida Gators (22-6), Florida would clinch at least a share of the SEC regular-season title with a win. Arkansas is close on the Gators’ tail, though, with an 11-4 conference record — two games behind UF’s 13-2 mark.
Below, we’ll analyze Saturday’s 8:30 p.m. ET prime-time clash on ESPN and make an Arkansas vs. Florida prediction. Make your NCAAB picks on PrizePicks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
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Arkansas vs. Florida Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Florida is 6-4 in the last 10 head-to-head matchups, but Arkansas holds a 6-4 against the spread (ATS) mark in the split. The Razorbacks haven't won in Gainesville since 2022. Can that change tonight?
Arkansas is 3-1 in its last four road games — a part of its 7-3 stretch over the previous 10. The Gators have been one of college basketball’s best thanks to a 9-1 record in their past 10, while an elite defense has led to an 8-2 under mark in the split.
Arkansas vs. Florida Spread, Over/Under
Backed by a 12-1 home record, Florida is favored by 9.5 points and has a 1.17x payout to win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
The SEC clash’s 170.5 over/under is one of the highest marks for high-major matchups on Saturday, per PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 34 states.
- Spread: Florida Gators -9.5
- Over/Under: 170.5
- Game Winner Payout: Arkansas 5x | Florida 1.17x
Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
Arkansas vs. Florida Prediction on Spread
Bart Torvik emphasizes a significant gap, with Arkansas 20th in efficiency and Florida fourth. KenPom’s metrics have the Razorbacks 17th, while the Gators rank fourth.
Arkansas is 55th in adjusted defensive efficiency, the weakest unit of this matchup by a landslide. It leans on an elite offense (fifth in adjusted efficiency) that logs 90.3 points per game.
Florida could have the answer, sitting fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency. Opponents have a measly 45.9% effective field goal percentage against the Gators. They boast one of the best interior defenses, as C Rueben Chinyelu (5.10) and F Alex Condon (4.39) feature elite Defensive Bayesian Performance Ratings (DBPR), per EvanMiya.
The Razorbacks are in the 99th percentile of dunk shot distribution and the 76th percentile for close-2s. If Arkansas can't live in the painted area, it could struggle to put points on the scoreboard.
Interior advantages continue, as the Gators rank in the 99th and 98th percentiles for offensive and defensive rebounding percentages, respectively. Arkansas, meanwhile, sits in the 72nd and 28th percentiles of the categories.
Arkansas vs. Florida Picks for PrizePicks Today: 2/28/26
Arkansas G Darius Acuff Jr. and Florida F Thomas Haugh are in the top 12 of Jeremy Woo of ESPN’s 2026 NBA Draft Big Board. Could the NBA prospects shine and add intrigue to some Saturday PrizePicks college basketball picks?
Arkansas G Darius Acuff Jr. vs. Florida Projection: 22.5 Points
- Florida allows 20.8 free throw attempts per game and is in the 48th percentile for personal fouls per game.
- Acuff leads Arkansas with 5.1 free throw shots per night, and that’s increased to 11.3 over his last three games.
- There’s little reason to count out the freshman phenom right now, as he’s posted an absurd 27.6 PPG in his last nine appearances.
- Acuff’s 18.7 shots per game in the past nine games may provide enough volume to keep 22.5 points within reach.
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Florida F Thomas Haugh vs. Arkansas Projection: 17.5 Points
- Arkansas is in the fourth and 54th percentiles of dunk and close-2 shot distributions allowed. UF’s offense is in the 99th and 93rd percentiles in the two metrics.
- Haugh stands at 6’9” and could be defended by Arkansas G Billy Richmond III (6’6”) and G Meleek Thomas (6’5”).
- Led by a height advantage, the Gator forward — who has a 6’11” wingspan — shoots 57.2% on 2-pointers.
- The Razorbacks cede 25.3 3-point attempts per game; Haugh has drained at least 2 triples in two of his last three games.
Make #20 Arkansas vs. #7 Florida Picks on PrizePicks
According to PrizePicks Team Picks, Florida (1.09x) is the favorite to win the SEC regular-season championship, and Arkansas features the second-lowest payout (5x). How will the SEC race shift in Saturday’s action?
Make your Arkansas vs. Florida picks at PrizePicks, where you can earn real-money rewards for your predictions if you’re right. Just choose players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and follow the hoops action to see if your picks hit. You can make picks on winners, spreads, and over/unders on Team Picks, now available in 34 states.
Keep tabs on the Playbook for continued college basketball predictions, picks, and news.
