With conference tournaments approaching, races for seeding are heating up in a major way. Before the calendar turns to March, the No. 25 Vanderbilt Commodores are paying a visit to the Kentucky Wildcats.
Saturday’s bout at Rupp Arena in Lexington, KY, tips off at 2:00 p.m. ET on ESPN. Although both teams are out of the conference champion picture, there’s still plenty to play for this weekend.
Below, we’ll break down our Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky prediction and picks for Saturday’s game. Make your college basketball picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
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Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
In year No. 2 under head coach Mark Byington, the Commodores will head back to the NCAA Tournament. They’ve already won two more games than last year’s 20-victory output, marking the second consecutive season of improvement after 2023-24’s dismal 9-23 campaign.
Kentucky, meanwhile, seems to have fallen off a bit in head coach Mark Pope’s second season. Their win percentage is down from .667 to .643, and BBN has lost three of its last four games heading into Saturday.
This weekend marks the 160th meeting between the two squads since 1949. Kentucky owns a commanding 118-41 series lead, winning each contest by an average margin of 8.0 points.
Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky Spread, Over/Under
Vanderbilt enters Saturday’s game as 1.5-point road favorites, returning a 1.96x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
Kentucky is a home underdog with a 1.81x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 34 states.
- Spread: Vanderbilt Commodores -1.5
- Over/Under: 155.5
- Game Winner Payout: Commodores 1.96x | Wildcats 1.81x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky Prediction on Spread
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky prediction on spread for Saturday, February 28 on PrizePicks.
- Kentucky is just 0-1 against the spread in its only opportunity to cover as home underdogs. Vanderbilt, on the other hand, is 4-3 ATS as road favorites.
- Not many offenses in Division I are more potent than Vanderbilt’s. They sit ninth in per-game scoring (87.3 points) and 29th in effective field goal percentage (56.0).
- It’s the other end of the floor where the Commodores show some weakness. They’re 160th in scoring (73.9 PPG), but with that said, their 47.7 eFG% and 41.8% opponent shooting clip rank 34th and 45th, respectively.
- Kentucky sits 99th in points per shot (1.134), largely stemming from being the 148th-ranked 3-point shooting team (34.5%).
- Similar to Vanderbilt, UK’s defense is top-50 in eFG% (48.0) and shooting rate (41.6%).
Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky Picks for PrizePicks Today: 2/28/26
Here are three top Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky picks to target for Saturday, February 28 on PrizePicks. Player stat projections via PrizePicks are headlined by G Tyler Tanner, G Otega Oweh, and G Denzel Aberdeen.
Vanderbilt G Tyler Tanner vs. Kentucky Projection: 23.5 Pts + Asts
- On the year, Tanner pours in an average of 23.7 points and assists each night. In conference play, that increases to 26.1.
- In his last nine outings, Tanner produced 5.1 nightly assists to just 2.1 turnovers while netting 21.4 PPG. In January 27’s clash with Kentucky, he had 19 points and 5 assists.
- Per Bart Torvik, Tanner is 15th out of 434 sophomores with a 29.4% assist rate.
- Kentucky’s defense ranks 244th in assist-to-turnover ratio (1.271) and 282nd in assists per made shot (0.563).
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Kentucky G Otega Oweh vs. Vanderbilt Projection: 27.5 Pts + Rebs + Asts
- In 28 games, Oweh averages 24.6 combined points, rebounds, and assists. In his last 10 contests, that PRA mark is exactly 27.5.
- The senior guard owns a 56.2 true shooting percentage on the season. In SEC play, it falls ever so slightly to 56.0%.
- Oweh’s 7.9% rebounding clip is the lowest of his collegiate career, marking the first time he’s below 10.0%.
- The Commodores cede just 10.9 assists each night, ranking 16th in the nation entering Saturday’s play.
Kentucky G Denzel Aberdeen vs. Vanderbilt Projection: 18.5 Pts + Asts
- Another senior Wildcats guard, Aberdeen’s average of 16.2 points and assists rises to 17.3 in conference play, albeit still below Saturday’s projection.
- On January 27, Aberdeen logged a 27.7% usage rate but mustered only 17 combined points and assists while going 6-of-15 from the field and turning the ball over twice.
- Trey-balls from the top of the key are Aberdeen’s bread and butter. Per CBB Shot Charts, he’s 18-for-40 (45%) on those attempts, but Vanderbilt allows just a 25% make rate (52-of-204) on them.
- A staggering 491 seniors have a usage rate of 20% or higher. Aberdeen is 137th with an assist clip of 20.3%.
Make #25 Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky Picks on PrizePicks
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