The Houston Rockets and Miami Heat meet for the first of their two matchups this season on Saturday night in Miami, with both teams in the thick of their respective conference playoff races. The Saturday bout tips at 3:30 p.m. ET on Prime Video.
The Heat are 2-2 since the All-Star break and now start a three-game homestand. Miami sits in eighth place in the Eastern Conference, a game behind the Orlando Magic and 2.5 games behind the Philadelphia 76ers for an automatic playoff spot.
Houston is 4-1 since the break and started a two-game Florida trip with a win at Orlando on Thursday night. The Rockets sit in third place in the Western Conference.
Below, we’ll break down our Rockets vs. Heat prediction and picks for Saturday afternoon’s game. Make your NBA picks on PrizePicks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
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Rockets vs. Heat Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
The Heat hold a 42-34 all-time advantage in the regular season vs. the Rockets, including wins in nine of the past 10 meetings.
Rockets vs. Heat Spread, Over/Under
The Rockets enter Saturday afternoon’s game as 3.5-point favorites, returning a 1.56x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Heat are underdogs with a 2.32x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 34 states.
- Spread: Houston Rockets -3.5
- Over/Under: 225.5
- Game Winner Payout: Heat 2.32x | Rockets 1.56x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Rockets vs. Heat Prediction on Spread
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your Rockets vs. Heat prediction on the spread for Saturday, February 28 on PrizePicks.
- Houston has failed to cover in 30 of 51 games as a favorite and in 14 of 25 games as a road favorite. Both are the most in the NBA.
- It’s a matchup of the top two rebounding teams in the NBA, as the Rockets lead the league with 48.3 per game and the Heat are next, averaging 47.3 boards.
- The Rockets are third in blocks with 6.0 per night, as well as fourth in defensive rating at 111.6.
- Miami leads the NBA in pace (104.89) and is second in scoring at 119.9 PPG. Miami is tied with the Rockets in defensive rating at 111.6.
- The Heat are 34-26 ATS (56.7%), the fifth-best cover percentage of all teams. They're also fifth with a 5-2 ATS record as home underdogs.
Rockets vs. Heat Injury Report
Let’s dive into the full Rockets vs. Heat injury report for Saturday, via NBA.com.
Houston Rockets Injury Report
- F Jabari Smith Jr. (ankle): OUT
- F Jae’Sean Tate (knee): OUT
Miami Heat Injury Report
- G Tyler Herro (ribs): Available
- F Keshad Johnson (knee): Available
- F Nikola Jovic (back): OUT
- G Pelle Larsson (finger): Available
- G Davion Mitchell (head): Available
- G Norman Powell (groin): OUT
Rockets vs. Heat Picks for PrizePicks Today: 2/28/26
Here are top Rockets vs. Heat picks to target for Saturday, February 28 on PrizePicks. Today’s NBA picks for PrizePicks are headlined by Rockets C Alperen Sengun and Heat C-PF Bam Adebayo.
Rockets C Alperen Sengun Projection vs. Heat: 4.5 Assists
- Sengun has gone over his assists projection in six of the last eight games.
- In five of those games in which Sengun went over his projection, the Rockets shot greater than 46% from the field. They didn't reach 46% in the previous nine, and Sengun hit his assist projection only twice in that time.
- Sengun’s 6.4 assists per game are 21st in the NBA and second among all centers, only trailing Denver Nuggets star Nikola Jokic.
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Heat C-PF Bam Adebayo Projection vs. Rockets: 9.5 Rebounds
- Adebayo has failed to hit his rebound projection in three straight and five of the last seven games.
- In the five games where he didn’t reach 35 minutes of action, he did not reach the projection. In the two games he played 35+ minutes, Adebayo recorded 14 and 11 boards, respectively.
- The Kentucky product is averaging 9.8 rebounds per game, 15th in the NBA.
- In 13 career games (10 starts) vs. the Rockets, Adebayo notches just 8.5 rebounds per game.
Make Rockets vs. Heat Picks on PrizePicks
Can the Heat start a playoff push with a win over one of the best teams in the West, or will the Rockets sweep the two-game Florida trip with a win over Miami?
You can make your Rockets vs. Heat picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 34 states.
Stick around with the Playbook for continued NBA predictions, picks, and news every day through the 2026 NBA Finals.
