FOX’s prime-time Big Ten outing features a Titanic-sized clash between the No. 3 Michigan Wolverines (26-2) and the No. 10 Illinois Fighting Illini (22-6) on Friday, February 27 at 8:00 p.m. ET.
Following Tuesday’s win over Minnesota, Michigan clinched at least a share of a Big Ten regular-season title and can secure the outright crown with a win on Friday. Illinois, meanwhile, is 2-3 in its last five and comes off a loss as 6.5-point favorites against UCLA.
Who could have an advantage for Friday’s Michigan vs. Illinois pick against the spread? Use PrizePicks Team Picks to make predictions on game winners, spreads, over/unders, and more.
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Michigan vs. Illinois Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
The Fighting Illini boast a 9-1 record and 8-2 mark against the spread (ATS) in the last 10 head-to-head matchups against the Wolverines.
Despite a 9-1 record in the last 10, Michigan is only 5-5 ATS in the split. Illinois also seems to lack a strong side, with a 6-4 ATS record over the past 10 matchups.
Michigan vs. Illinois Spread, Over/Under
As the Big Ten’s leader with a 16-1 conference record, Michigan is a 1.5-point favorite and features a 1.78x payout to win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Illinois is a home underdog with a 2.04x payout if they win, per PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 34 states.
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines -1.5
- Over/Under: 157.5
- Game Winner Payout: Michigan 1.78x | Illinois 2.04x
Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
Michigan vs. Illinois Prediction on Spread
According to Bart Torvik, Illinois ranks first in adjusted offensive efficiency. As one of the nation’s top offenses, the Fighting Illini post 85.1 points per game (95th percentile), paired with a 55.7% effective field goal percentage (90th percentile).
Michigan could have the answer by sitting second in adjusted defensive efficiency, surrendering only 68.7 points per game and a 43.9% eFG%. Shot distributions tell a different story, though.
The Illini heavily lean on the 3-ball, ranking in the 98th percentile of 3-point shot distribution. This could bode trouble for Michigan, which gives up 7.9 triples and 26.9 3-point attempts per game.
On the other end, the Wolverines look to attack the rim by ranking in the 84th percentile of close-2 shot distribution. The Fighting Illini tout a stingy interior defense in the 99th percentile of close-2 shot distribution allowed. Furthermore, EvanMiya credits Illinois C Tomislav Ivisic (2.35) and F Zvonimir Ivisic (4.93) with strong Defensive Bayesian Performance Ratings.
Extra possessions could give the Illini an advantage; they record 12.3 offensive rebounds per game compared to UM’s 9.9.
Michigan is 1-2 ATS over its previous three road games. Could Illinois pull off the upset at home?
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Make #3 Michigan vs. #10 Illinois Picks on PrizePicks
The Wolverines’ only conference loss of the season came on January 10 against Wisconsin. Will Illinois bounce back from its loss against UCLA? With a home advantage and potential upper hand in shot distributions, the Fighting Illini could have a fighter’s chance on Friday night.
You can make your Michigan vs. Illinois picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 34 states.
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