College football Saturday kicks off with a massive Big 12 showdown between No. 7 BYU vs. No. 8 Texas Tech at 12 p.m. ET on ABC on Saturday, November 8.
We’ll give you our BYU vs. Texas Tech prediction and picks for this matchup with huge Big 12 Championship and Playoff implications, including PrizePicks college football picks to target.
The BYU Cougars are undefeated (8-0), coming off a bye, sitting at No. 7 in the College Football Playoff rankings. Led by QB Beach Bachmeier and their shifty ground-and-pound style, the Cougars have squeaked by to stay undefeated, with three one-possession wins through Big 12 play so far.
Meanwhile, Texas Tech will play its sixth game in as many weeks, sitting at 8-1 with an explosive offense led by QB Behren Morton that’s averaging 43.6 points per game (third nationally) and the top ranked defense in the Big 12.
Let’s dive into our BYU vs. Texas Tech prediction and picks for Saturday, November 8.
BYU vs. Texas Tech Prediction, Game Preview
The winner of this game will walk away as the clear favorite to win the Big 12 Championship. Luckily for the Red Raiders, they’ll get to play it at home, where they have won by an average margin of 40.5 points — albeit against much lesser opponents than this undefeated BYU squad.
BYU will get a healthy RB LJ Martin, the Big 12’s top graded rusher on PFF, who was nicked up in the win over Iowa State. That’s good news for this offense that wants to keep the ball on the ground and bleed the clock, ranking 111th in seconds per play (28.2).
Meanwhile, Texas Tech is quite the opposite, especially with QB Behren Morton (probable) mostly healthy, ranking 20th in seconds per play on the season.
The Red Raiders will look to push the ball and move quickly. And that’s worked wonders, as they rank second in 20+ yard pass plays this year (43) — and that’s without Morton for almost half the season.
Playing at home on a national stage and ranked just one spot below BYU in this week’s first College Football Playoff rankings, expect Texas Tech to come out with intensity off the rip.
How BYU wins vs. Texas Tech
The biggest advantage BYU has is an extra week to rest, get healthy, and prepare for what looks like a better team on paper.
That said, BYU has stayed undefeated with consistent success on the ground and winning the turnover battle.
The Cougars have turned opponents over 16 times, including 12 interceptions, while only turning it over six times on offense. That could come to a head against Texas Tech — the Red Raiders and their No. 2 ranked defense in Havoc have forced 20 turnovers on defense this year.
BYU’s last win came over Iowa State, 41-27, but the Cougars trailed in that game by two touchdowns in the third quarter. Two fourth-quarter interceptions — including one for a TD — secured the game.
Before that, BYU squeaked out a 24-21 win over Utah at home, running it 42 times for 202 yards. Utah had 470 yards to BYU’s 368 in that game, but the Utes lost the turnover battle, 2-0. Plain and simple — a gross win.
On the road against Colorado (1-4 in Big 12 play), they needed a late interception to secure the game after trailing for over two quarters.
Those games were against the 80th (Iowa State), 44th (Colorado), and 34th (Utah) ranked teams in EPA/play. Texas Tech ranks eighth in the same metric.
So, the path to victory for BYU is simple: get Martin going on the ground, set up manageable second and third downs, and control the clock. Most importantly, QB Bear Bachmeier absolutely cannot commit turnovers or take sacks.
Luckily, the freshman QB – who inexplicably wears No. 47 — has fared well under pressure this year, with only 1 INT on 65 pressured dropbacks, with a 64.7% completion percentage, per PFF. He’ll need to stay shifty in the pocket and stay cool under pressure if the Cougars are going to hang.
While BYU has made a habit of getting behind in games and relying on turnovers to come back, it’s hard to see that working on the road vs. a defense and passing attack of this caliber.
How Texas Tech wins vs. BYU
While the margins for BYU look thin on paper, Texas Tech has edges everywhere — outside of the rest advantage. When you have one of the top defensive front sevens in the nation, the rest tends to come easy.
The $7 million that Texas Tech invested into its defensive line via NIL money is panning out big time already.
Edge rushers David Bailey (remember that name, NFL fans) and Romello Height could cause problems for Bachmeier, as the duo has combined for 17 sacks and 95 pressures, both ranking top five in pressure grade, per PFF.
On the inside, Lee Hunter, Skyler Hill-Howard, and A.J. Holmes Jr. all have 79+ run defense grades on PFF. That's led Texas Tech to allow just 4.06 yards per rush, which ranks 20th, with only three rushes over 20+ yards (T-6th)
The Red Raiders defense ranks fifth in expected points added (EPA) per rush (-0.18), and sixth in yards allowed per dropback. Plain and simple: there doesn’t look to be a clean way to attack this Red Raiders defense.
BYU’s defense ranks 47th in yards allowed per dropback; despite injuries, Morton’s 7.29 yards per dropback ranks 18th in the nation. If the Cougars aren’t forcing turnovers, their pass defense has been a liability, and Morton can find success passing, as he has all year.
BYU vs. Texas Tech Picks for Saturday College Football
Here are our top BYU vs. Texas Tech picks for PrizePicks in this critical Big 12 showdown at 12 p.m. ET. On PrizePicks, you can win cash if you’re right by simply picking More or Less on college football player stats in any game, every Saturday.
Texas Tech QB Behren Morton Projection – 256.5 Pass Yards
- Morton is as experienced as they come in Power Four conferences under center — despite battling injuries his whole career, this is his fourth season starting games for Texas Tech.
- In four full games this year vs. FCS opponents, Morton is averaging 329 passing yards per game.
- Texas Tech won all of those games by at least 20 points.
- BYU does have some strengths on defense, but the Cougars rank 83rd in Havoc rate.
- Meanwhile, Texas Tech is only allowing pressure on 23% of dropbacks — fourth best in college football.
- Morton put up 249 yards passing vs. Houston (23rd in Havoc), and 345 yards vs. Kansas State (25th in Havoc).
- BYU gave up 311 yards to Iowa State QB Rocco Becht in its last game.
- BYU is middle of the pack defensively, ranking 36th in pass success rate against (39.9%) and 47th in yards per dropback allowed (6.41).
Texas Tech WR Caleb Douglas Projection 63.5 Receiving Yards
- Texas Tech WR Caleb Douglas is averaging 77.3 yards on 7.5 targets per game in four full games with Morton under center this year.
- The senior WR leads the Red Raiders in targets with 67.
- Douglas’ 11.9 yards average depth of target ranks 35th nationally among WRs with at least 50 targets, per PFF.
- BYU has given up 65+ receiving yards to five receivers in its last three games vs. Arizona, Utah, and Iowa State.
- Morton has averaged 90 yards per game across his last two games. He’s also scored 3 TDs in those games.
BYU QB Bear Bachmeier Projection: 244.5 Pass+Rush Yards
- Texas Tech has fared well vs. dual-threat QBs, limited Utah QB Devon Dampier to 189 pass+rush yards, and Kansas QB Jalon Daniels to 215 yards (including -40 rushing yards).
- Bachmeier has only one game with over 20 completions this season.
- BYU ranks 28th in college football with a 57.2% rush percentage.
- Texas Tech is No. 1 in adjusted expected points added per play.
- Arizona is the next best defense Bachmeier has faced — he completed just 41.4% of his passes in that game and finished with 263 pass+rush yards.
- The Wildcats tallied one sack in that game. The Red Raiders are averaging 3.0 sacks per game, and 3.8 at home.
Make Saturday College Football Picks on PrizePicks
This may only be the first time we see this BYU vs. Texas Tech matchup this year; with a Tech win, it’s very possible we get it again in the Big 12 Championship down the road.
While this BYU vs. Texas Tech game looks lopsided on paper in favor of the Red Raiders, BYU and QB Bear Bachmeier have clawed their way to wins again and again this year. Can the freshman phenom pull it off again in Lubbock, Texas?
With such massive implications on the line, there’s no better way to get in on the excitement of College GameDay than making your picks on PrizePicks. Just pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats, and get paid if your picks are right.
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