Following a deflating season from the ACC, two Group of Five teams will participate in round one of the College Football Playoff, including the James Madison Dukes (12-1). JMU enters a hostile environment in Eugene’s Autzen Stadium against the Oregon Ducks (11-1).
The Dukes have yet to face a top-five opponent since joining the Division I level in 2022, likely making Saturday’s contest the program’s tallest challenge to date. Oregon is firmly among National Championship contenders, and Saturday’s 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff could provide a major home advantage.
Let’s break down this matchup, televised by TNT, HBO Max, and truTV. Check out our James Madison vs. Oregon prediction and picks for the College Football Playoff, found at PrizePicks.
College Football Playoff: James Madison vs. Oregon Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Since Oct. 11’s loss against Indiana (30-20), the Ducks have flown under the radar, but they’ve ripped off six consecutive wins by an average margin of +19.7 points. Oregon remains one of CFB’s most talented teams and sits among title contenders with a 7.14x payout to win the national championship at PrizePicks Team Picks (fourth favorite).
James Madison has faced one Power Four squad this season, losing 28-14 against Louisville. Since Week 2, however, the Dukes have amassed an 11-game winning streak. Can JMU keep it close on Saturday?
James Madison vs. Oregon Over/Under, Spread
This bout features the largest point spread in the first round of the CFP, with the Ducks favored by a hefty 20.5 points. Oregon carries a 1.04 payout if they win outright, courtesy of PrizePicks Team Picks.
A win from James Madison would be a memorable upset, explaining the Dukes’ 8.33x payout for a win via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Oregon Ducks -20.5
- Over/Under: 44.5
- Game Winner Payout: James Madison 8.33x | Oregon 1.04x
Team Picks data is live as of publishing and is subject to change
James Madison vs. Oregon Prediction on Spread
According to Game on Paper, James Madison leans on a strong defense that ranks fourth in expected points added (EPA) per play allowed. The unit is playing perhaps its best ball, limiting opponents to 12.0 points per game over the last two matchups.
The Dukes hold opposing teams to 16.3 PPG (10th) and 4.0 yards per play (fourth), but Texas State (ninth) is the only offense they’ve seen in the top 25 of adjusted EPA per play. Oregon’s talent lies in a different stratosphere, and its receiving corps could be getting healthy, with Ducks WRs Dakorien Moore and Evan Stewart questionable for Saturday.
Pro Football Focus ranks the Dukes ninth in pass rush grade, but UO has the answer with the nation’s top pass block grade. If Oregon QB Dante Moore has time in the pocket, James Madison’s impressive stats could come crashing down.
JMU has not faced a QB of Moore’s caliber, as he is the second favorite to be the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft with a 3.7x payout for "Yes" at PrizePicks Team Picks.
On the other side of the ball, the Dukes’ offense ranks 73rd in EPA per play. It’s a one-dimensional attack, too, carrying a 61.6% rush-play rate (11th). Oregon, meanwhile, allows 3.3 yards per run (17th). This defense held Indiana to only 3.0 yards per carry.
The turnover battle also sets off alarms; James Madison holds a -0.2 average turnover margin (84th) compared to UO’s +0.7 (14th).
James Madison vs. Oregon Picks for College Football Playoff
PrizePicks is offering a wide variety of More or Less player projections for Saturday’s CFP clash. Which ones stand out among the bunch?
Oregon QB Dante Moore vs. James Madison Projection: 234.5 Passing Yards
Moore is one of CFB’s most talented signal-callers, boasting a 91.8 passing grade from PFF. His 2,733 passing yards finished sixth in the Big Ten, and the former five-star recruit was extremely efficient with 8.7 yards per attempt, 24 passing TDs, and 6 INTs.
Oregon’s stud QB comes off his best stretch yet over the final three regular-season games, posting 90.3, 85.7, and 90.7 passing grades with a gaudy average of 283.0 passing yards.
As 20.5-point favorites, a potential negative game script could limit Moore’s passing attempts. However, the Ducks won their past three games by a margin of +18.7 points per game. That didn’t stop the Michigan native from recording hefty yardage totals.
Before suffering an injury on Oct. 25, Dakorien Moore was a big-play machine with 15.8 yards per reception. Stewart’s 613 receiving yards finished third on the Ducks in 2024. He’s yet to play this season due to an offseason injury. Both former five-stars could return on Saturday, providing Dante Moore with a bevy of talented targets.
Game on Paper credits Oregon’s QB with 0.31 EPA per dropback, tied for 15th. This level of efficiency, paired with elite pass protection, could be JMU’s worst nightmare.
James Madison QB Alonza Barnett vs. Oregon Projection: 25.5 Rushing Yards
Dukes QB Alonza Barnett is more than just a passer, racking up 544 rushing yards (second on the team). He averages an efficient 4.7 yards per carry, paired with a solid 2.72 yards after contact per carry.
PrizePicks lists Barnett’s projected rushing total at 25.5 yards. The North Carolina native has surpassed this total in four of the past five games while posting 36.0 rushing yards per contest during the span.
It's worth accounting for sacks when looking at a QB’s rushing total. In Nov. 15’s meeting with Appalachian State, Barnett finished with 0 rushing yards, partially thanks to 3 sacks.
According to NFL Mock Draft Database’s 2026 Consensus Big Board, Oregon DE Matayo Uiagalelei (33rd) and DT A’Mauri Washington (34th) rank among the top 35 NFL prospects. The Ducks are 24th in pass rush grade, while JMU is 39th in pass block grade. The Dukes sit 79th in sack rate allowed.
A deficit could lead to more passing attempts from James Madison, potentially limiting Barnett’s rushing attempts and increasing UO’s chances for sacks.
Make James Madison vs. Oregon Predictions on PrizePicks
James Madison may attempt to play a slow, controlled game, leaning on its strong defense and rushing attack. The uber-talented Ducks, meanwhile, may prevent the Dukes from playing to their strengths.
Check out PrizePicks' latest projections and Team Picks for the College Football Playoff. Just pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in on your predictions if you're right.
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