Friday marks the beginning of the College Football Playoff, but don’t forget about a nationally televised showdown between Missouri State and Arkansas State on Thursday.
The nighttime bout (9:00 p.m. ET on ESPN2) sees the Bears clash with the Red Wolves. With the programs combining for 13 wins this season, the crowd at the Ford Center at The Star in Frisco, TX could be in for a treat.
Here, we’ll break down a Missouri State vs. Arkansas State prediction and picks for Thursday’s Xbox Bowl. Use PrizePicks’ CFB game to make picks on player projections for college football’s many bowls this season.
Missouri State vs. Arkansas State Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Thursday marks just the second meeting between Missouri State and Arkansas State dating back to 1998. The Red Wolves own a 2-0 series lead in those games, including a dominant 70-7 triumph back in 2015.
As far as opt-outs are concerned, a key player-coach duo for Missouri State won’t be leading the team into battle on Thursday. On the player side, C Cash Hudson is hitting the transfer portal. At head coach, Ryan Beard has joined the Coastal Carolina program.
Missouri State vs. Arkansas State Over/Under, Spread
The Bears enter Thursday’s game as 2.5-point road favorites, returning a 1.81x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Red Wolves are underdogs with a 1.92x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Missouri State Bears -2.5
- Over/Under: 53.5
- Game Winner Payout: Bears 1.81x | Red Wolves 1.92x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Missouri State vs. Arkansas State Prediction on Spread
In their first year after joining the FBS, Missouri State went 7-5 in the regular season. The Conference USA club will take on Arkansas State, a Sun Belt team that delivered a 6-6 record under head coach Butch Jones. This is their third bowl in a row.
On offense, Missouri State’s strength is passing the ball. They’re 36th in total EPA, per Game on Paper, with QB Jacob Clark leading the way. That attack also produces an 81st-percentile mark for yards per dropback.
Defensively, the Bears fare worse. They’re 95th in opponent scoring at 30 points per game, sitting 101st in yards per play allowed (5.9) as well. This side of the ball routinely struggles to stop opponents, but their Thursday matchup is nothing to write home about.
Arkansas State’s offense can best be described as anemic. It’s 101st in EPA/play, via Game on Paper, including 95th and 87th rankings for passing and rushing offense, respectively. Despite running the third-most plays per game (76), they’re 112th in points per play (0.293).
On the other side of the ball, while far from a dumpster fire, the Red Wolves leave some to be desired. They slot in at 62nd in defending the pass, at least by EPA/play standards. With that said, they give up 8.0 yards per pass (108th) and surrender a 67.6% completion rate (128th).
The run game might not factor into the Xbox Bowl too much. Missouri State averages just 3.7 yards per carry, and Arkansas State is even worse at 3.6. Both defenses are 95th or worse in rush EPA/play yielded.
Make Missouri State vs. Arkansas State Xbox Bowl Picks on PrizePicks
Bowl season is in full swing, and Missouri State vs. Arkansas State picks are far from the only ones to consider. With PrizePicks’ real-money CFB game, you can cash in on the action for the Xbox Bowl and more.
Doing so is simple. Just pick your players, predict More or Less for their projected stats, and earn rewards if you’re right.
Keep it here with the Playbook for continued college football predictions, picks, and news.
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