#12 Texas Tech vs. #25 Oklahoma State Prediction, Spread, NCAAF Picks – Saturday, November 14

The Texas Tech Red Raiders hope to repeat as Big 12 Champions and stay in the hunt for a College Football Playoff spot. They’ll take a step closer if they find a way to beat Oklahoma State in Stillwater on Saturday, November 14, with kickoff at 9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.

The Red Raiders sit 12th in the latest CFP rankings and second in the Big 12 behind Utah with an 8-1 record but narrowly held on against West Virginia at home last weekend. Now they face a Cowboys offense led by one of the best QBs in the nation, looking to improve on a 6-3 record and still holding onto hopes of a Big 12 title game appearance.

Below, we’ll break down our Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State prediction and picks for Saturday night’s ranked conference clash, including the spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

‍Make your Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State picks on PrizePicks now!

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#12 Texas Tech vs. #25 Oklahoma State Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Saturday, November 14

Oklahoma State enters Saturday’s game as a 3.5-point home favorite against Texas Tech, returning a 1.56x payout if the Cowboys win outright.

Here are the full payouts for Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State on PrizePicks.

PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

As the season rolls along, Texas Tech’s lone defeat at Cincinnati looks worse and worse. The Red Raiders would be undefeated if not for an inexplicable second-quarter collapse. That said, they’ve also faced a fairly favorable schedule, avoiding Utah and BYU. 

Things now get tougher with the trip to Oklahoma State this weekend and a visit to Baylor next. QB Tommy Castellanos is experienced, but this will mark the first time he’s hit the road as the Red Raiders’ starter since taking over after that Cincinnati defeat.

They’ll need him to step up, as they currently sit on the bubble of the CFP. According to PrizePicks, the Red Raiders return a 2.94x payout to make the College Football Playoff, compared to a 1.36x payout to miss out. The ESPN CFP Index puts Texas Tech at 40% probability to make the playoffs, ranking 13th among all teams.

The Red Raiders are above average in a lot of areas but aren’t excelling at anything in particular. They’ve relied on big plays offensively to post 38.1 PPG, ranking 10th nationally. Unlike years past, they also run the ball far more than they pass, ranking 24th in rush rate.

Starting WR Coy Eakin is a huge loss for the Red Raiders after he broke his hand last week. RB Quinten Joyner also went down with an ankle injury in that game and will miss out, while fellow RB Cameron Dickey is questionable with an ankle issue of his own.

The two backs have accounted for 132 of the team’s 350 rushing attempts this season.

The same cannot be said for Oklahoma State. The Cowboys rely on a high-octane passing attack led by QB Drew Mestemaker. He’s thrown for nearly 3,000 yards with a 29:8 TD/INT ratio, spearheading an offense ranked in the top five in passing yards and PPG.

Oklahoma State’s defense hasn’t matched that output, sitting in the bottom half nationally in nearly every metric. It’s why the Cowboys reside at 6-3 overall and 4-2 in-conference after heartbreaking losses at Iowa State and Houston by a combined 5 points.

The loss to the Cyclones came with the defense conceding a last-second field goal to cap off a 51-49 contest.

The Cowboys need to win out and get help to reach the Big 12 Championship, which ESPN’s CFP Index gives them just a 4.2% chance to achieve. Per PrizePicks, the Cowboys return a 4.16x payout to qualify for the game, fourth among all Big 12 teams, and a 1.11x payout should they fail. 

This is Oklahoma State’s biggest remaining hurdle. Games at Arizona State and home vs. Kansas lie on the horizon, so victory on Saturday could put the Cowboys in a position to have some hope should they go 7-2 in the conference.

The Cowboys come into the game quite healthy. They will be without LB Tate Romney for the second week in a row, but they will get DE Jaleel Johnson back, which is key as he leads the team in QB hurries and ranks second in pass rush win rate.

Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State Prediction on Over/Under – 11/14/26

Here are the key game stats and trends behind our Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State prediction on the over/under for Saturday, November 14.

• The pace in this game could resemble a basketball tilt at times. According to TeamRankings, both programs rank in the top 16 nationally in seconds per play.
• In addition to that, these secondaries have both been exploited at a high rate. Via Game on Paper, the Red Raiders are 84th in success rate against the pass, while the Cowboys rank 101st in that area. 
• Only Houston has a higher Eckel rate among Big 12 offenses than Oklahoma State, according to BTB Analytics. The Cowboys have a 67% Eckel rate on offense (fifth nationally), while the Red Raiders are fourth in the Big 12 at 55.6% in the metric.  
• The Red Raiders are not getting stops on obvious passing downs. They sit 86th with a 30.4% success rate against and 121st in explosive pass rate allowed, per College Football Data. 
• The Cowboys aren’t much better at preventing big plays. They rank 113th in explosiveness on defense and just 72nd in havoc rate while also being 102nd in points allowed per opportunity.
• Oklahoma State’s offense is a machine, slotting in at seventh in passing success rate and 15th in rushing success rate, in addition to ninth in net EPA/play. 
• Last year’s 42-0 win by Texas Tech was just the third time in the last 10 meetings these teams combined for fewer than 72 points. The last five matchups in Stillwater have seen an average of 83.4 points posted. 

Lock in your Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State prediction on PrizePicks before kickoff.

Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 11/14/26

Here are the top Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State picks to target on Saturday, November 14. Today’s college football picks for PrizePicks include QBs Thomas Castellanos and Drew Mestemaker. 

Texas Tech QB Thomas Castellanos vs. Oklahoma State: 16.5 Rush Attempts

• Since taking over as the starting QB for Texas Tech, Castellanos has rushed 42 times for 219 yards in two games.
• Much of that damage has come via designed runs, as he’s scrambled just five times for 28 yards, per PFF.
• The Cowboys rank in the 36th percentile in explosive run rate allowed; the Red Raiders sit in the 84th percentile on offense.
• No team in Big 12 play has faced more rushing attempts per game than Oklahoma State at 43.3.
• The Red Raiders already rank 24th nationally in run rate and 16th in rushing attempts per game at 40.9. With the injuries to Joyner and Dickey, Castellanos may pick up additional carry share like he did last week when he ran the ball 23 times.

Add Thomas Castellanos + Texas Tech to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Oklahoma State QB Drew Mestemaker vs. Texas Tech: 49.5 Longest Completion

• Texas Tech’s defense has allowed 7 passes of 50+ yards. Only Boise State has given up more, per CFBStats.
• Last week, West Virginia hit on completions of 75 yards and 43 yards against a Red Raiders secondary ranked in the 32nd percentile in explosive pass rate allowed.
• Arizona also hit on throws of 94 yards and 55 yards in the same game, with Arizona State dropping a 74-yard bomb on the Red Raiders, too. They’ve been repeatedly torched by deep shots and coverage busts, something that TTU DC Shiel Wood has admitted is a huge problem.
• Mestemaker has connected on 6 passes of 50+ yards, including three of his last four games. He's 19th nationally with 46 deep passing attempts, also boasting a 52.5% completion rate that's 11th out of 129 QBs with 20+ such attempts.

Add Drew Mestemaker + Oklahoma State to cover the spread to your PrizePicks lineup now. 

Make Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State Picks on PrizePicks

Two high-powered offenses led by talented QBs will be front and center in this pivotal ranked matchup in the Big 12. Can the Red Raiders keep hold of second place in the conference, or will the Cowboys win in front of a blackout crowd and keep their hopes of a conference title game alive?

Don’t wait until kickoff — make your Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State picks on PrizePicks now.

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