Florida vs. #11 Kentucky Prediction, Spread, NCAAF Picks – Saturday, November 14

Two SEC teams coming off bad losses meet up in Lexington on Saturday afternoon. Florida and #11 Kentucky have met every season since 1967 but have never clashed with College Football Playoff implications on the line.

Ahead of kickoff at 6:15 p.m. ET on ESPN, the Wildcats enter as a 2.5-point favorite on the spread, returning a 1.58x payout with a win via PrizePicks.

Florida was upset at home last week by Oklahoma, falling 23-7, while Kentucky (formerly #6) saw its six-game winning streak end in a blowout 34-6 loss to #13 Tennessee. With the defeat, the Wildcats dropped to #11 in the country, but ESPN's FPI still gives them a 30.6% chance of making the CFP.

Below, we’ll break down our Florida vs. Kentucky prediction and picks for Saturday’s college football game, including the game winner, spread, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Florida vs. Kentucky picks on PrizePicks for Saturday’s game.

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Florida vs. Kentucky Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Saturday, November 14

Kentucky enters Saturday’s game as a 2.5-point favorite vs. Florida, returning a 1.58x payout if it wins outright, according to PrizePicks.

Here are the full payouts for Florida vs. Kentucky on PrizePicks.

Play the Florida vs. Kentucky spread or over/under on PrizePicks!‍

Payouts show potential returns on correct Team Picks predictions. A 2x payout returns $200 on a $100 entry. Lower multipliers reflect outcomes users are picking as more likely. Payouts are live as of writing and subject to change.‍

While the Kentucky loss dropped the Wildcats five spots in the poll and knocked them out of first place in the SEC, the Cats are still right there in the CFP hunt, returning a 3.57x payout if they qualify, per PrizePicks.

At 5-2 in conference play with losses to Tennessee and Alabama, the Wildcats sit one game behind Georgia for the top spot in the SEC. Bama, Tennessee, and Kentucky, plus two-loss Texas, are tied for the second spot ahead of next month’s final SEC title game.

After Florida, Kentucky plays at #22 Missouri and finishes with an in-state rivalry matchup with Louisville. 

Kentucky has won four of the last five and five of the past eight vs. the Gators, which is a complete reversal in the series, as Florida won 31 straight from 1987-2017. The Wildcats have also won the last three matchups at home in Lexington, including last year’s dominant 38-7 win.

Kentucky forced four Gators turnovers, and current Colts RB Seth McGowan ran for two scores in the 31-point win.

Florida’s inconsistent season continued last week, as the favored Gators were overwhelmed by the Oklahoma Sooners on their home field. Florida managed just a single TD, being held to 252 total yards.

Florida has 15 points total in back-to-back losses — a far cry from the same offense that averaged 53.5 points in the season’s first four weeks and has upset wins over Ole Miss and Texas.  

The Gators are going back to senior Aaron Philo at QB. He was benched in the first half of Florida’s loss to Georgia for sophomore Trammell Jones Jr. after starting the first six games and seven of the first eight this season. The Jones experiment didn’t work, as Oklahoma held him to 133 yards and a 45.5% completion rate. 

The Gators are out of the SEC and CFP races but will still qualify for a bowl if they win one of their last three games vs. Kentucky, Vanderbilt, and Florida State.  

Florida vs. Kentucky Prediction on Spread – 11/14/26

Here are the key stats and trends behind our Florida vs. Kentucky pick against the spread for Saturday, November 14.

• Kentucky is 7-2 against the spread, tied for the fifth-best cover percentage in the country. 
• Saturday marks only the fourth time this season Kentucky has been favored, but it's 3-0 ATS as a favorite, covering vs. South Alabama, Vanderbilt, and Youngstown State. 
• The Wildcats are favored vs. Florida for the third time in four meetings after having not been favored in at least the previous 20 meetings. 
• Kentucky sits seventh nationally in turnover margin (+10), while Florida ranks 96th (-3).
• Kentucky has won its last four home games, including victories over LSU (35-34) and Vanderbilt (34-17). The Wildcats have scored at least 34 points in three of their last four games at Kroger Field.
• Florida is 4-5 ATS and has failed to cover in four of the last five games, losing by an average margin of 20.5 points. 
• Kentucky ranks 21st in offensive success rate (48.5%), while Florida is 99th in defensive success rate allowed (43.2%), giving the Wildcats a path to sustain drives and control the football at home

Make your Florida vs. Kentucky prediction on PrizePicks now!

Florida vs. Kentucky Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks: 11/14/26

Here are the top Florida vs. Kentucky picks to target on Saturday, November 14. Today’s college football picks for PrizePicks include RB Jadan Baugh and QB Kenny Minchey.

Florida RB Jadan Baugh vs. Kentucky: 79.5 Rush Yards

• Baugh has 14 rushing TDs on the season, the most in the SEC and sixth most in the nation. 
• With that said, after leading the country in rushing through four games (600 rushing yards), he's only totaled 198 yards in the previous four games. 
• Last year vs. Kentucky, Baugh was held to 64 yards on 17 carries. That 3.8 YPC average was his second-worst of the season. 
• According to Game on Paper, Baugh’s 5.48 EPA vs. FBS teams is 127th in the country. He was fifth in this category at the end of September.

Add Jadan Baugh + Florida to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Kentucky QB Kenny Minchey vs. Florida: 216.5 Pass Yards

• Minchey has passed for 200+ yards in four of the last five games and in six of nine overall. 
• The Wildcats signal-caller's 145.28 passer rating is 36th in the country and fourth among SEC QBs. 
• Minchey has only thrown 2 INTs, tied for seventh-best in the country.
• The former Notre Dame QB is 46th in passing success rate (43.7%) entering Saturday's contest.

Add Kenny Minchey + Kentucky to cover the spread your PrizePicks lineup now.

Make Florida vs. Kentucky Picks on PrizePicks

Can Florida get its season turned around in time to qualify for a bowl game with another win over a top-25 team, or will Kentucky keep its sights set on a College Football Playoff spot with a win vs. the Gators? 

Don’t wait until kickoff — make your Florida vs. Kentucky picks on PrizePicks now.

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