#22 Missouri vs. #1 Georgia Prediction, NCAAF Picks: Will Dawgs Keep Rolling?

The SEC provides two more top-25 matchups on Saturday, November 14, including #22 Missouri (6-3) visiting #1 Georgia (8-1) for a 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff on ABC. 

After last week’s dominant 42-7 win over #19 Ole Miss, Georgia is a large 16.5-point favorite on the spread, per PrizePicks. Missouri comes off a 34-20 loss vs. #6 Texas, and its College Football Playoff hopes are effectively over with a 16.66x payout to quality, but the Tigers would get a major boost to their resume by knocking off the nation’s best team.

Below, we’ll look at each team’s recent performance and more in our Missouri vs. Georgia prediction, capped by picks for player projections on PrizePicks.

Make your Missouri vs. Georgia picks on PrizePicks now! 

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#22 Missouri vs. #1 Georgia Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for CFB Week 11 – Saturday, November 14

After a 42-7 win as 3.5-point favorites vs. Ole Miss last week, Georgia is back to being a heavy favorite, featuring a 16.5-point spread and 1.11x payout to win vs. Missouri, PrizePicks.

Here are the full payouts for Missouri vs. Georgia, including winner payouts, the spread, and over/under. PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Make your Missouri vs. Georgia prediction on the over/under on PrizePicks!

Following Week 10’s monster 42-7 win vs. then-#10 Ole Miss on the road, Georgia has separated itself at the top of the college football mountain. That’s reflected by the Bulldogs sporting the shortest payout to win the national championship (2.94x), followed by Notre Dame (5x) and Alabama (6.66x). 

As mentioned, Missouri’s CFP chances could be wrapped up as a three-loss team, but it may have a fighter’s chance if it manages to take out #1 Georgia, followed by #11 Kentucky next week. One thing’s for sure — it’s win or go home for the Tigers.

Missouri QB Austin Simmons and WR Cayden Lee — one of the SEC’s best connections — were banged up in last week’s road loss vs. Texas, but both players are off the injury report and appear ready to go, per the SEC availability report.  

Tigers RB Ahmad Hardy, who made his season debut in Week 9, is available once again as well. After suffering a fractured femur from a gunshot wound in May, Hardy has taken only 3 total snaps over his first two games. Another limited showing may be ahead, with RB Jamal Roberts carrying the load with his 1,071 rushing yards (119.0 per game).

Missouri’s offense has its toughest test yet ahead, as Georgia allows only 15.9 PPG (93rd percentile) and 4.2 yards per play (94th percentile). Plus, the Dawgs yielded only 7.5 PPG over their last two.

Georgia’s offense continues to battle injuries on offense, with C Drew Bobo questionable. RB Chauncey Bowens is set to play, but head coach Kirby Smart said he wasn’t 100% following last week’s game vs. Ole Miss.

Let’s dive into our Missouri vs. Georgia prediction for Saturday’s top-25 SEC collision.

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Missouri vs. Georgia Prediction on Over/Under for CFB Week 11 – 11/14/26

Missouri’s offense has struggled with some inconsistency over the last few weeks, going from 3 points vs. Ole Miss to 34 vs. Arkansas and 20 vs. Texas last week. The under is 3-1 over the Tigers’ past four. 

Georgia, meanwhile, has seen the under go just 3-6 across the season. However, that’s at 3-1 in the past four, including back-to-back unders. That’s courtesy of a dominant Dawgs defense allowing only 7.5 PPG while forcing 6 turnovers in the last two matchups. 

We know this unit is loaded with talent, as LB Chris Cole (#10), CB Ellis Robinson IV (#14), and S KJ Bolden (#23) are all in the top 30 of the NFL Mock Draft Database’s 2027 Consensus Big Board. Now, the defense is hitting its stride at the perfect time.

The Bulldogs offense has racked up 38.4 PPG (94th percentile), but Missouri’s defense is a decent challenge by allowing only 20.9 PPG (78th percentile).

Furthermore, the Tigers are best at limiting the run, giving up only 3.0 yards per carry (90th percentile). Georgia leans on the ground game with a 58.10% rush play rate (87th percentile). With that said, don’t expect this unit to single-handedly carry the total to the over; Missouri would have to score some points.

However, Mizzou has a low 40.8% offensive success rate (19th percentile), a 44.2% pass success rate (57th percentile), and a 37.1% rush success rate (ninth percentile), per Game on Paper. Adding insult to injury, the Tigers have an average third-down distance of 7.38 yards (28th percentile), contributing to a low 40.8% third- and fourth-down success rate (32nd percentile).

Georgia allows only 3.0 YPC (91st percentile), perhaps forcing Missouri into more third and longs. That’s a danger zone against a Bulldogs defense forcing 2.1 turnovers per game (96th percentile). 

UGA’s defense is capable of forcing an under by itself, similar to the last two games. Plus, the Tigers could frustrate the Bulldogs’ main method on offense: running the rock. 

Lock in your Missouri vs. Georgia prediction on PrizePicks before kickoff!

Missouri vs. Georgia Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks – 11/14/26

Today’s Missouri vs. Georgia picks are headlined by Austin Simmons and Talyn Taylor on PrizePicks.

Missouri QB Austin Simmons vs. Georgia: 196.5 Pass Yards

• As 16.5-point underdogs, that implies a negative game script and many passing attempts for Austin Simmons. 
• A healthy workload is further supported by Missouri’s 50.46% pass play rate (63rd percentile), and the Tigers could consistently get behind the chains with third and longs vs. a strong Georgia run defense.
• The Dawgs look slightly vulnerable through the air, yielding a 41.2% pass success rate (70th percentile) compared to a 38.7% rush success rate allowed (86th percentile). 
• Georgia’s 1.52 pass explosiveness rate ranks 61st out of 138 FBS teams, and Simmons tallies 7.8 yards per passing attempt with a healthy 10.9 average depth of target (aDOT), via Pro Football Focus. 
• Simmons surpassed this projection in four of his last six games, totaling 258.8 passing yards per game in the split. 

Pick Austin Simmons + Missouri for bigger payouts on PrizePicks!

Georgia WR Talyn Taylor vs. Missouri: 41.5 Receiving Yards

• As mentioned, Missouri’s run defense has been solid, but it is ceding 7.0 yards per passing attempt (66th percentile) and a 44.2% pass success rate (57th percentile). 
• Those mediocre marks look even worse when considering the Tigers’ 1.53 pass explosiveness rating allowed (50th percentile).
• Georgia likes to run the ball, but don’t get it twisted — this is an all-around unit tallying 8.9 yards per passing attempt (90th percentile).
• Talyn Taylor has fueled some of those explosives, courtesy of 17.0 yards per reception. 
• Taylor touts an absurd 15.9 aDOT, and his 3.29 yards per route run tops the SEC.
• UGA’s dangerous deep threat averages 53.3 receiving yards per game and surpassed this projection in three of his past four. 

Combine Talyn Taylor + Georgia to win for bigger payouts on PrizePicks!

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Make Missouri vs. Georgia Picks on PrizePicks

After putting college football on notice last week, Georgia returns to Athens and looks to build off its performance vs. Missouri. The Tigers may be forced to lean on Austin Simmons and Cayden Lee in the passing game, but will it be enough to stay close? 

Don’t wait until kickoff — make your Missouri vs. Georgia picks on PrizePicks now. Just pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in on your predictions if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders — now available in 36 states!

Keep it here with the Playbook for continued CFB picks, predictions, futures, and more all the way through the 2026 College Football Playoff.