College Football Predictions, Upset Picks Today: SMU, Oklahoma on Upset Alert?

There are only three more regular-season weekends before Conference Championship Saturday decides who will make the 12-team College Football Playoff. While we don’t have seven ranked vs. ranked matchups this week, we have plenty of compelling matchups that could lead to upsets. 

One SEC matchup has our attention, featuring teams that surprised us last week. Plus, an important matchup in the ACC could decide who battles Miami for the conference crown. 

Below, we’ll break down our upset picks for Saturday’s CFB games, including #13 Wake Forest vs. SMU and #19 Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma, with spreads and payouts on PrizePicks.

Make college football predictions and upset today on PrizePicks!

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College Football Predictions, Upset Picks for Week 11 – Saturday, November 14

This Saturday's college football slate has plenty of underdogs, but two games stand out as potential college football upset spots on Saturday, November 14.

Wake Forest looks to keep pace with Miami in the ACC, traveling to Dallas to take on SMU at 12:00 p.m. ET on ESPN, while Ole Miss and Oklahoma battle in the Sooner state for SEC positioning, kicking off at 4:15 p.m. ET on the SEC Network.

The payouts listed below indicate real-money earnings if a prediction is correct; for example, a 2x on a $100 entry pays out $200. The lower the payout multiplier, the higher the chance of the outcome occurring, according to user picks. 

#13 Wake Forest vs. SMU: College Football Upset Watch Today

Start Time: 12:00 p.m. ET | TV: ESPN

While former #1 Miami gets all the attention in the ACC, two other teams are battling for the conference crown and meet on Saturday afternoon in Dallas.

With its only loss of the season to Miami, #13 Wake Forest looks to get one step closer to a rematch with the Hurricanes in the ACC title game, but first has to get by a favored SMU team that is looking to make its second ACC Championship Game appearance in three seasons.  

SMU is favored, mostly because they have been unbeatable at home, having won all 12 conference games at Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas since joining the conference before the 2024 season. They also have QB Kevin Jennings leading a passing attack that is seventh in the nation, averaging 321.6 yards per game.

The Mustangs are coming off a 51-28 thumping of Virginia Tech last week, which was a needed rebound after being upset at Syracuse the week before. 

However, Wake Forest has the more complete statistical profile, including a defense capable of limiting SMU's rushing attack and an offense that has been difficult to stop.

The Demon Deacons have been one of the hottest teams in the country, outscoring their last five opponents 264-31, an average of nearly 53-6 per game. Wake ranks fourth nationally in scoring offense (43.3 PPG), ninth in total offense (487.7 YPG), and 10th in passing (311.9 YPG).

Wake Forest QB Gio Lopez, who missed last week’s 77-0 win over Merrimack with a lower-body injury, has paced the Demon Deacons attack with 18 TDs, 1 INT, and 6 rushing TDs. His passer rating of 172.5 is ninth-best in the country. 

Both teams have explosive offenses that rank in the top 20 nationally in scoring offense, but the edge goes to Wake Forest on defense and in a major way. The Demon Deacons are 13th in scoring defense (15.9 PPG) and eighth against the run (85.0 YPG), compared to SMU's 53rd-ranked scoring defense (22.9 PPG) and 45th-ranked rushing defense (125.9 YPG).

Another area that Wake has a big advantage is in the red zone, where it is 16th out of 138 FBS teams in scoring (93.5%), going against an SMU defense that allows opponents to score on 91.3% of possessions (121st). 

The Demon Deacons are on the doorstep of entering the College Football Playoff top-12 and would be one step closer to Charlotte with a win at SMU. According to PrizePicks, Wake Forest has a 2.17x payout to qualify for the CFP, compared to 1.63x to miss the postseason.

The Mustangs' home-field advantage is strong, but Wake Forest's defensive edge and more balanced offense give the Deacons a strong chance to leave Dallas with another win and keep their ACC title hopes alive.

Make your Wake Forest vs. SMU picks on PrizePicks now.

#19 Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma: Upset Watch Today

Start Time: 4:15 p.m. ET | TV: SEC Network

Two teams coming off drastically different results meet in Norman, Oklahoma, on Saturday, fighting for positioning in the SEC. Ole Miss, with SEC and playoff hopes on the line, were blown out at home by top-ranked Georgia, 42-7, while Oklahoma shocked the hometown #24 Florida Gators, 23-7. 

Conventional wisdom would be to take the hotter team, but Ole Miss’ advantages point to a rebound performance, while the Sooners could be in store for a letdown.

The biggest advantage for Ole Miss is on offense, where the Rebels have been a lot more productive than the Sooners. Ole Miss ranks 30th nationally in scoring offense (33.8 PPG), 40th in total offense (418.8 YPG), and 23rd in passing (271.4 YPG). Oklahoma, meanwhile, ranks 108th in scoring (22.1 PPG), 113th in total offense (338.4 YPG), and 124th in rushing (110.9 YPG).

The Sooners have scored fewer than 30 points in eight of their nine games this season, including in their win last week in Gainesville.

Oklahoma is led by its outstanding defense, which ranks 16th nationally in total defense (293.3 YPG) and 10th against the pass (170.7 YPG). However, that passing ranking is slightly misleading, as the Sooners have faced just 24.3 passing attempts per game, the fewest against any SEC defense, and rank just 64th nationally in yards allowed per pass attempt (7.0).

Enter Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss, who just two weeks ago was one of the top candidates for the Heisman Trophy. While he has struggled the last two weeks and goes up against a strong Sooners’ defense, he has shown he can beat it, passing for 315 yards and a TD last season in the Rebels’ 34-26 win at the same place in Norman. The dual-threat QB has 25 total TDs, sitting as the 14th-most across CFB. 

The concern in backing Ole Miss is protecting Chambliss, as the Rebels are missing key members of the OL and running back Kewan Lacy, per the SEC availability report.

Georgia sacked Chambliss 5 times last week, but Oklahoma has struggled to generate consistent offense of its own, putting considerable pressure on its defense to win games. With a more consistent offense and the best player on the field on their side — one who showed the ability to win at Oklahoma last year — the Rebels can pull off this upset. 

Make your Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma picks on PrizePicks now.

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Make College Football Predictions Today on PrizePicks

After a midweek filled with college football, we end it with 56 games on Saturday, November 14, featuring conference races in the final month of play with plenty of chances for upsets. 

Can Wake Forest go on the road to SMU and stay in the College Football Playoff race? Will Ole Miss rebound from its worst loss of the season and win for the second straight year in Norman? 

You can make your college football predictions every week of the 2026 season on PrizePicks — including teams to pull off upsets.

Pick More or Less on player stats, or pick game winners, spreads, and totals to earn real money if you're right! In eligible states, combine Team + Player picks for bigger payouts.

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