#6 Texas vs. #21 LSU Prediction, Picks: College Football Playoff Stakes Ahead

Saturday, November 14, is led by three matchups on the primetime schedule, and #6 Texas (7-2) vs. #21 LSU (6-3) at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC is shaping up to be perhaps the top matchup of the day. Backed by a rowdy crowd in Death Valley, the Tigers are favored by 4.5 points for the spread, per PrizePicks. 

Following a bumpy 1-2 start to SEC play, Texas has won three consecutive games while going 3-0 against the spread (ATS). LSU was handed its third loss in a 31-13 final vs. #3 Alabama last week. Most importantly, tonight’s clash carries clear College Football Playoff implications, as neither team can afford a loss. 

Let’s dig into the matchup, followed by our Texas vs. LSU predictions and picks for player projections on PrizePicks. 

Make your Texas vs. LSU picks on PrizePicks now! 

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#6 Texas vs. #21 LSU Prediction, Spread, Over/Under for CFB Week 11 – Saturday, November 14

Despite losing 31-13 as 6.5-point favorites at home last week, LSU is prepping for another favored role in Death Valley, featuring a 4.5-point spread on PrizePicks.

Here are the full payouts for Alabama vs. LSU, including winner payouts, the spread, and over/under. PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Make your Texas vs. LSU prediction on the spread on PrizePicks!

According to PrizePicks, Texas has a 1.31x payout to make the College Football Playoff, compared to 3.22x to miss out. If the Longhorns win tonight, they’re in a great spot with Arkansas and Texas A&M remaining on the schedule. 

Texas is one of four SEC teams carrying two conference losses entering the day. If it wins out, paired with Alabama dropping a game, the Longhorns could play in the SEC Championship. However, that’s unlikely due to the Crimson Tide facing Vanderbit, Chattanooga, and Auburn over their next three.

LSU’s sole focus is on making the CFP, and its 2.94x payout to qualify proves the Bayou Bengals must win out. Next week features another tough test on the road vs. #8 Tennessee. If the Tigers can pull off back-to-back wins vs. #6 Texas and #8 Tennessee, they should vault up the CFP rankings. 

Before an 18-point loss vs. Alabama, the Tigers won their first five home games of the season by an average margin of +36.2 points per game. Dropping a game by three scores was uncharacteristic, to say the least — especially as almost a touchdown favorite. Will LSU get back on track in front of its home crowd? 

Getting a major piece back on defense would be a big help, as LB Whit Weeks is a game-time decision. He hasn’t played since Week 4 and is the leader of this defense wearing #7 (a legendary LSU number) and the green dot. Weeks will go through warmups on Senior Night.

Texas EDGE Colin Simmons, who is perhaps the best defensive player in college football, returned from injury last week. According to Pro Football Focus, Simmons played for only 18 snaps a week ago; expect that to increase in his second game back from injury. 

On offense, Texas WR Cam Coleman is back in action after missing last week’s game.

Each team should have their best on the field, and it’s primetime in Death Valley with CFP hopes on the line. What more could you ask for? Which team will grab the much-needed win in our Texas vs. LSU prediction? 

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Texas vs. LSU Prediction on Spread for CFB Week 11 – 11/14/26

Game on Paper provides some interesting metrics behind this matchup, as Texas is seventh nationally out of 138 FBS teams for net adjusted EPA per play. Despite three losses, LSU tops the nation in net adjusted EPA per play. 

The Tigers have battled inconsistency, but when they’re playing at their best, few teams can match them. So, which version of LSU shows up tonight? 

Frankly, both offenses have failed to meet sky-high preseason expectations. Texas tallies 31.1 PPG (77th percentile), but its 5.3 yards per play (41st percentile) and 0.00 net adjusted EPA per play on offense (55th percentile) draw obvious concerns. LSU racks up 33.9 PPG (84th percentile) with 0.17 net adjusted EPA per play (91st percentile), but the Tigers total only 3.9 yards per carry on the ground (39th percentile).

Each unit is gearing up to take on a daunting defense. The Longhorns top college football by holding teams to 4.0 yards per play and -0.29 net adjusted EPA per play, and the Bayou Bengals cede 4.1 yards per play (fifth nationally) and -0.23 net adjusted EPA per play (fourth).

Moving the ball will be difficult enough, and that’s magnified by both teams struggling to take care of the rock. Texas has won three straight, but it’s still playing with fire due to 6 total turnovers in that split. The Tigers have also struggled in the department, as seen by 1.5 turnovers per game (29th percentile). Both teams are 100th or worse in turnover margin per game.

Much of this could boil down to how much havoc each defense generates. According to PFF, Texas QB Arch Manning has tallied 7 of 13 turnover-worthy plays under pressure, and LSU QB Sam Leavitt has 4 of his 6 under pressure. 

Leavitt’s 9 INTs sit behind Manning’s 7, but Leavitt’s 6 turnover-worthy plays are actually tied for the fifth-lowest total in the SEC. Manning, meanwhile, has 13 turnover-worthy plays that are tied for the second-highest across the conference. 

LSU’s offense has a 6.45 average third-down distance (80th percentile), helping avoid some obvious dropback situations — which usually contributes to turnovers. The same cannot be said for Texas’ average third-down distance in the 54th percentile.

Staying ahead of the chains is a major piece for both offense, as the Longhorns carry a 19.5% havoc rate on defense (92nd percentile), right behind the Tigers’ 20.8% havoc rate (94th percentile), via Fourth and Short. 

Finding yards in the run game can help fend off an elite pass rush, and once again, LSU is generating a little more confidence here. Fourth and Short’s line yards per attempt measures an offensive line’s ability to generate push in the run game. The Tigers have 3.1 line yards per attempt (69th percentile), compared to the Longhorns’ 2.6 (sixth percentile). 

There’s a real scenario that Texas loses the turnover and run game battles, and winning in Death Valley becomes extremely difficult if that’s the case. 

Lock in your Texas vs. LSU prediction on PrizePicks before kickoff!

Texas vs. LSU Picks, Player Stats for PrizePicks – 11/14/26

The lights will be bright in Death Valley. Who will shine for today’s top Texas vs. LSU picks? Emmett Mosley V and Dilin Jones sport player projections worth circling on PrizePicks tonight.

Texas WR Emmett Mosley V vs. LSU: 3.5 Receptions

• WRs Ryan Wingo and Cam Coleman get the recognition in the passing game but don’t sleep on Emmett Mosley V.
• Coleman is expected to play in his first game since Week 9, but he’s been labeled “not at 100%.” He took only 10 snaps vs. Mississippi State before injury, followed by last week’s absence. In those games, Mosley went off to the tune of 4.5 catches and 91.5 receiving yards per game.
• Since Week 6, Mosley had 5, 2, 5, 4, and 7 targets; he usually has a healthy workload to hit this reception projection. 
• Furthermore, Coleman tallied only 3.5 targets per contest in his last two full appearances. 
• Mosley has established himself as a go-to target over the last month, and a potential negative game script and ineffective run game could force Texas to air it out once more.

Pick Emmett Mosley V + Texas for bigger payouts on PrizePicks!

LSU RB Dilin Jones vs. Texas: 67.5 Rush Yards

• As mentioned, the run game will be massive for avoiding these elite pass rushes. Dilin Jones is LSU’s clear bell cow back, averaging 18.4 rushing attempts per game. 
• Jones posts 79.2 rushing yards per contest, and his 3.41 yards after contact per rushing attempt is 13th out of 33 eligible SEC RBs.
• Texas is a tall task by allowing 2.9 yards per carry (92nd percentile), but Jones has the luxury of running behind an offensive line that allows only a 16.6% stuff rate (67th percentile). 
• Over six home games this season, Jones has logged 81.7 rushing yards per game.

Combine Dilin Jones + LSU to win for bigger payouts on PrizePicks!

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Make Texas vs. LSU Picks on PrizePicks

LSU is on its last breath to contend for a CFP spot, and Texas’ hopes would dwindle with a third loss tonight. Supported by a home environment, strong underlying efficiency, and potential advantages in the run game and turnover categories, the Tigers are a worthy favorite on Saturday night.

Don’t wait until kickoff — make your Texas vs. LSU picks on PrizePicks now. Just pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in on your predictions if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on game winners, spreads, and over/unders — now available in 36 states!

Keep it here with the Playbook for continued CFB picks, predictions, futures, and more all the way through the 2026 College Football Playoff.