The 12-2 Denver Broncos have won 11 straight games, a mark they haven’t reached since Peyton Manning was donning the orange and blue in 2012. In Week 16, they will play host to the 10-4 Jacksonville Jaguars, winners of five straight — both outright and against the spread.
The Jaguars vs. Broncos kick off at 4:05 p.m. ET on Sunday from Denver, live on FOX in NFL Week 16. Both teams have a lead in their division; the Broncos can clinch the AFC West title with a win and a Chargers loss.
Below, we’ll break down our Jaguars vs. Broncos prediction and NFL Sunday Week 16 Picks for PrizePicks, including the spread and over/under. Use PrizePicks NFL to make picks on player projections, game winners, spreads, and more and win real money if you’re right.
Jaguars vs. Broncos Prediction, Spread, & Over/Under
Combining for 22 wins on the year already in Week 16, the Jaguars and Broncos combined win total is tied for the highest of any two teams playing this week — both with the lead in their divisions. Tied with the Rams vs. Seahawks game on Thursday Night Football, we can only hope for a game as thrilling as what we were witness to on Thursday.
The Broncos opened the week as 5.5-point favorites vs. the Jaguars. Since then, we have seen them move to 3.5-point favorites on PrizePicks Team Picks.
The over/under opened the week at 45.5 and has since moved down to 46.5 as of writing, which comes in as the sixth-highest total on the Week 16 slate out of 16 games.
The Broncos come into this game almost completely healthy, a rarity for NFL teams this late into the season. ILB Justin Strnad (foot) has been ruled out for the game, while OG Ben Powers (biceps) and LB Karene Reid (hamstring) are both listed as questionable. Both players practiced in full on Friday and seem to be trending towards playing.
The Jaguars are also fairly healthy coming into this matchup; however, RB Bayshul Tuten (finger) has been ruled out for Sunday’s game. This will lead to an increased role for RB Travis Etienne, who already operates as the team's undisputed RB1.
Jaguars vs. Broncos Over/Under, Spread
The Broncos enter Sunday’s game as 3.5-point home favorites, returning a 1.49x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Jaguars are road underdogs with a 2.43x payout if they win, via Team Picks.
- Spread: Denver Broncos -3.5 (1.88x payout)
- Over/Under: 46.5 (1.81x payout on over)
- Game Winner Payout: Broncos 1.49x ($100 pays $149)| Jaguars 2.43x ($100 pays $243)
Team Picks payouts are live as of publishing and are subject to change.
Jaguars vs. Broncos Prediction on Spread for NFL Week 16
Here are some stats to know to get you prepared for your Jaguars vs. Broncos pick, including a spread prediction.
- Thanks to a multitude of factors, including the mile-high altitude, the Broncos possess one of the best home-field advantages in the NFL.
- In the Sean Payton-era, the Broncos are 10-5 (66.7%) against the spread (ATS) in home games.
- The Broncos enter the game with the first overall rated offensive line and second overall rated defensive line in the NFL, according to Establish The Run.
- The Broncos’ defensive line ranks third in pass-rush win rate, second in pressure percentage, and second in sacks per pass attempt.
- The Jaguars offensive line ranks 19th in QB hurries given up and 16th in sacks per pass attempt given up.
- The Jaguars are an impressive 9-5 ATS in 2025; however, that number drops to 3-3 in games played on the road.
- Working against the Broncos is that since 1990, teams on an 11+ game win streak have struggled to cover the spread, going 14-36-2 ATS.
Jaguars vs. Broncos Picks for 4 p.m. Game
Here are the top Jaguars vs. Broncos picks for NFL Week 16 on PrizePicks in this matchup between respective division leaders — pick More or Less on player stat projections and cash in if you’re right on PrizePicks.
Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence vs. Broncos Projection: 225.5 Pass Yards
- The Jaguars' offensive line has struggled to keep Lawrence protected, ranking 19th in QB hurries allowed.
- The Broncos' defensive line ranks third in pass-rush win rate, second in pressure percentage, and second in sack percentage.
- The next best pass rush the Jaguars have faced this year was vs. the Seahawks (fifth in pass-rush win rate) in JAcksonville; Lawrence was sacked 7 times in that game.
- Lawrence was also sacked 7 times by the Rams (eighth in pass-rush win rate).
- QB Trevor Lawrence has a 95.3 PFF grade in clean pockets but just a 69.8 passer rating under pressure, according to PFF.
- Out of 42 qualifying QBs, Lawrence ranks 21st in pressure-to-sack rate at 17.1% and 39th in turnover-worthy plays with 20.
- The Broncos defense has the eighth-best expected points added (EPA) per play vs the pass (-.08) but the 12th-ranked EPA per play vs the rush (-.05).
- Working in Lawrence' s favor is the fact that the Broncos play man coverage at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL. while Lawrence ranks fourth in the NFL in PFF passing grade vs. man coverage.
- Lawrence is averaging 218 pass yards per game on the road this year; he's gone less than this apass yards number in four of six road games.
Broncos RB RJ Harvey vs. Jaguars Projection: 48.5 Rush Yards
- The Jaguars have the fourth-best defensive EPA per pass play at -0.11, but the tenth-best EPA per play vs the run at -0.06.
- Harvey has seen an increasing rushing workload in his last four games, with 11, 13, 17, and 19 carries in his last four games, respectively.
- Harvey has recorded rushing totals of 75 and 65 yards in his last two games, coinciding with his increased workload.
- With the Broncos listed as 3.5-point favorites, they're projected to play with a lead, which could result in them leaning on the run more than usual.
- Despite working behind RB JK Dobbins until his injury in Week 10, Harvey still leads all NFL rookies in scrimmage TDs (10).
Make Jaguars vs. Broncos Predictions on PrizePicks
It’s been a decade since the Broncos won the AFC West. With a magic number of two, they control their own destiny in winning the division for the first time since their 2015 Super Bowl season.
Standing in their way are the upstart Jaguars, who look to maintain their one-game lead in the AFC South in tough road game.
In the Jaguars vs. Broncos game in NFL Week 16, there are plenty of players to consider for your PrizePicks picks. Just pick players, predict More or Less for their projected stats, and earn real money if you’re right — or make picks on the spread, over/under, or a team to win.
Keep it locked in here with PrizePicks and the Playbook for continued NFL picks, predictions, and news all season long.
