It came as a shock to some that the 10-3 Alabama Crimson Tide made it into the College Football Playoff. Nevertheless, as the No. 9 seed, they head into Norman to face the 10-2 Oklahoma Sooners.
This is a rematch from Week 12, when Oklahoma defeated Alabama 23-21 in Tuscaloosa. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET, and the game can be viewed on both ABC and ESPN.
Below, we'll break down an Alabama vs. Oklahoma over/under prediction for the College Football Playoff's first round. Use PrizePicks CFB to make picks on player projections for this game and several others.
Alabama vs. Oklahoma Prediction, Over/Under, Spread
The Crimson Tide and Sooners meet for the second time this season and the third overall since Oklahoma moved to the SEC. Oklahoma has a 2-0 record against Alabama since becoming conference rivals.
Oklahoma comes into the game as 2.5-point favorites, returning a 2.04x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they cover.
Alabama is the underdog with a 1.69x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Spread: Oklahoma -2.5
- Over/Under: 40.5
- Game Winner Payout: Alabama 1.88x | Oklahoma 1.81x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Alabama vs. Oklahoma Prediction on Over/Under for CFP First Round
Alabama’s offensive performance against Georgia didn't inspire much confidence. They only scored 7 points and finished with -3 rushing yards. Now, they run into a buzz saw of an Oklahoma defense.
The Sooners' defense can flat-out control a game. Offensively, OU may try to control the clock to limit possessions and scoring opportunities.
Here are some additional stats to get you prepared for Alabama vs. Oklahoma.
- The over/under of 40.5 points is lower than the 44 points scored in the last game between Alabama and Oklahoma.
- Alabama’s games went under the set point total in eight of 13 times, including five straight. Oklahoma's contests went under the set total in 10 of 12 games.
- Oklahoma’s home games have gone under 40 points five of eight times.
- The Sooners' final scores average 40.3 points, the fifth-lowest.
- Alabama’s 21 points against Oklahoma were their second-fewest in a regular-season SEC matchup.
- Alabama is a slow-paced offense, ranking 100th in seconds per play at 27.6.
Alabama vs. Oklahoma Preview for College Football Playoff
Let's peel back the layers of this matchup even more as Friday's game approaches.
Alabama Crimson Tide Preview vs. Oklahoma
What adjustments do the Crimson Tide need to make to beat the Sooners? Nothing significant — they played a good game against Oklahoma last time. Aside from the pick-six, QB Ty Simpson performed well, throwing for 326 yards and a TD. That first-quarter INT Oklahoma took back proved to be the deciding factor in a close game.
That was one of Alabama’s best defensive performances, allowing a season-best 212 total yards, Oklahoma’s lowest of the year.
What 'Bama must figure out is how to contain pressure from the Oklahoma defense. In the last matchup, Simpson was sacked 4 times and pressured 11 times, including the INT where an unblocked DT forced him to throw off his back foot.
Oklahoma Sooners Preview vs. Alabama
Stopping that Oklahoma pass rush could be tough, as it's first in sacks per game (3.6) and 20th in pressure rate (38.6%), via CFB Graphs. It’s difficult to find any weaknesses in a defense that allowed fewer than 15 points seven times this year.
The 20 days of rest should help players get healthy, especially QB John Mateer. The Washington State transfer is playing through a hand injury he had surgery on in September.
Against Alabama the first go-round, Mateer threw for a season-low 138 yards. It was his second game without a TD pass. If his defense can keep Alabama contained, Mateer and the offense may lean toward attempting less risky throws and instead focusing on the run game.
Make Alabama vs. Oklahoma Picks on PrizePicks
Oklahoma will aim to become the first team in 130 years to beat Alabama twice in the same season. With PrizePicks, you can win real money on the College Football Playoff if your predictions are correct.
Just choose players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and follow the gridiron action to see if your picks hit.
Stay tuned to the Playbook for college football predictions, picks, and news throughout the playoffs and bowl season.
Team Picks and Culture Picks are event contracts offered by Performance Predictions II, LLC d/b/a PrizePicks Predict, a CFTC-registered FCM and NFA Member. All event contract customers must be U.S. residents and 18+. Some event contracts may not be available in every state. Event contract trading carries significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. No guarantee against loss is offered. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. Void where prohibited by law. Restrictions apply. For full terms of service see prizepicks.com/predict-regulatory. Team and Culture Pick Early Payouts subject to market liquidity. The content provided is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, or a recommendation to trade any commodity interest.
