As a fancy editor here at PrizePicks, I often tell my writers, “Don’t do an article in first person unless you mean it.”
I note that because I'm writing this about 60 hours removed from Bears QB Caleb Williams’ epic TD pass to D.J. Moore, earning them a generational comeback win over their hated rival Green Bay Packers and about 175 hours since Seahawks QB Sam Darnold rose from the dead to engineer an NFC-altering last-gasp dub over NFC West frenemies Los Angeles Rams.
Me, I’m a Bears guy, so let’s go first person, because I mean it. (The fact that Winners-Losers is always first person is beside the point.)
These two unlikely teams now sit atop the NFC — ‘Hawks at one, Bears at two — setting us up for an unlikely playoff bracket, in which we probably won’t see either of the teams who graced last season’s conference championship (Washington is toast, while the Lions have a 6% shot at the postseason, as per NFL Next Gen), and in which we will (likely) see the Carolina Panthers.
Yes, those Carolina Panthers.
This potentially wacky postseason gives our NFL Week 16 winners and losers breakdown a bit of spice.
And when the NFL gets spicy, we’re all winners.
NFL Week 16 Winners and Losers
Here’s who crushed Sunday, and here’s who got crushed.
WINNER: Bears QB Caleb Williams
Most every NFL franchise has their fair share of memorable, iconic plays, and Williams’ mind-blowing walkoff TD pass in Saturday night’s pulling-victory-from-the-jaws-of-defeat 22-16 win over the Packers goes right into the Bears’ time capsule.
The 46-yard bomb rescued what would’ve been horrible fantasy weeks for Caleb and D.J. But after throwing the tuddie into the mix, Williams finished the week at QB11 (21.0 fantasy points), the sixth week in which he finished in the top-11.
As for Moore, this is the second-consecutive week in which he finished the week as WR4, racking up a two-game average of 17.5 fantasy points. If his dinged-up fellow Bears WRs Rome Odunze and/or Luther Burden III return to the lineup for next Sunday’s SNF throwdown with the 49ers, those numbers will likely take a dip. But if they remain on the shelf, get him in your lineup for your fantasy championship game.
LOSERS: The Kansas City Chiefs
Sports dynasties are a dynasty until they’re not. And the Kansas City Chiefs might not.
QB Patrick Mahomes and his ACL are out for anywhere from nine to 18 months. Backup QB Gardner Minshew probably suffered an ACL tear of his own. TE Travis Kelce is mulling retirement. Their WR room isn’t great. And they missed the playoffs for the first time since 2014.
So they might roll into 2026 with either an inexperienced or retread QB, blah pass catchers, and a good-but-not-great defense.
Chiefs fans have to acknowledge that next season could often look like Sunday’s 26-9 loss to the 3-12 Titans.
End of an era, y’all. End of an era.
WINNER: Raiders RB Ashton Jeanty
Coming into the 2025 NFL Draft, Boise State running back/video game character Ashton Jeanty was poised to lead the league in rushing.
Newsflash: He didn’t lead the league in rushing.
It’s not all his fault — the Raiders stink — but it didn’t placate us Jeanty fantasy owners who suffered through his four-out-of–five-game run of single-digit fantasy point performance.
All of which led us Jeanty owners to bench him on Sunday, so we could put Bills WR Khalil Shakir in their lineup.
Jeanty dropped 30.8 fantasy points (RB1). Shakir managed 3.4 (WR59). Oopsie.
Fortunately the remainder of my lineup — Charger Justin Herbert (30.2, QB3), Falcon Bijan Robinson (22.8, RB5), and Bear D.J. Moore (16.9, WR5), among others — crushed, so yours truly is off to the championship round.
And you can damn well be sure that I’ll be starting Mr. Jeanty.
LOSER: Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield
I’m old enough to remember when Baker Mayfield was in the 2025 MVP conversation.
I’m also old enough to remember when Baker Mayfield fell out of the 2025 MVP conversation.
After Sunday’s heartbreaking 23-20 loss to the surging Panthers, the Bucs’ playoff hopes are hanging by a thread, and Mayfield has to bear some responsibility, as he looked like the Browns version of Baker against Carolina, throwing for 145 yards on 18-for-26, tossing a pick and suffering a sack along the way. His 60.3 QBR was the was the ninth-consecutive time he’s failed to top 61.00.
Fantasy-wise, those who started him in their semi-finals ain’t happy, as he managed just 13.7 fantasy points (QB18), just behind Raiders QB Geno Smith (ugh) and just ahead of Browns signal caller Shedeur Sanders (double ugh).
Is Bucs head coach Todd Bowles concerned about his team’s future at the quarterback position? If he’s not, he should be.
WINNER: Jaguars WR Parker Washington
I had Washington on my fantasy roster. When his teammate (and theoretical WR1) Brian Thomas Jr. shook off the ankle sprain he suffered in Week 9 on November 30, I dumped Washington, because, theoretical WR1.
D’oh.
Yesterday, Washington racked up 20.5 fantasy points (WR3), way more than the aforementioned Khalil Shakir, his third double-digit fantasy performance in his last six games.
Next Sunday, his Jags visit an Indy squad that, as of this writing, allows the third-most fantasy points to opposing receivers. So if you’re in your fantasy league’s championship (like me), and he’s available in your league (he is), get on that waiver wire.
LOSER: Vikings WR Justin Jefferson
This is JETS’ third appearance in the losers’ portion of our program, but let’s be honest, here — it’s a systemic thing.
Y’see, the Vikings’ QB1 is J.J. McCarthy, and prime Randy Moss wouldn’t have made much noise catching balls from the Michigan product.
Jefferson enters Week 17 as fantasy’s WR31 (!), 29 spots behind his 2024 finish (!!!!).
His Vikings, who were eliminated from the postseason in what seems like Week 3, play out the string against division rivals Detroit and Green Bay. Compounding issues for Jefferson, McCarthy suffered a right-hand injury on Sunday that left him unable to grip the ball, so if last season’s WR2 has to share the field with QB2 Max Brosmer, he could be this season’s WR40.
WINNER: Patriots QB Drake Maye
I’m not good at staying up past 9:30 CT, so I almost always miss the second half of Thursday Night Football, Sunday Night Football, and Monday Night Football. (Thanks to my adrenalized love for Chicago, I made it through the Bears-Packers tilt on Saturday.)
So when I woke up this morning to learn that Drake Maye balled out, like, a lot in the second half of the Pats’ 28-24 come-from-behind dub over the Ravens in Baltimore, I was kind of shocked at his 24.7 fantasy point total (QB6), as he didn’t ball out, like, a lot in the first half.
Is the sophomore still in the MVP conversation? You bet, and justifiably so. New England leads the AFC in point differential (+110), and at 12-3, are poised to lock down a playoff first-round bye.
Winner, winner, lobster dinner.
LOSER: Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs
As noted, the Lions will likely be off to Cancun after Week 18, and you kinda-sorta have to point at Gibbs as part of the reason.
Yes, he currently sits as this season’s fantasy RB2, but in the last four weeks, the former Crimson Tide standout has averaged 14.3, ranking him RB7 over that stretch.
But one of those games was a 30-point Week 14 barrage against, and if you take that out of the mix, we’re talking 9.1 fantasy points per game, which saw him land at RB26.
Yesterday, when the Lions needed him the most, he eked out 12.8 fantasy points, behind RB2s Seattle’s Zach Charbonnet (RB15) and Tennessee’s Tyjae Spears (RB13).
Thus, Cancun, here we come.
Regardless of whether your Week 16 PrizePicks picks were good (Caleb), bad (Baker), or ugly (Jahmyr), you had a ton of fun making your selections, and will continue to do so as the NFL season progresses.
And if you enjoyed our NFL Week 16 winners and losers, stick with Playbook all season for advice, predictions, takes, winners, and losers.
