The stage is set, and it's time for the top 12 teams in college football to compete for a National Championship. The first round of the College Football Playoff could deliver memorable matchups, especially with this weekend featuring two rematches.
Alabama is looking to justify its selection in the playoff while attempting to avenge its Week 12 loss to Oklahoma. Tulane would love to pull off an upset and get payback for its Week 4 loss to Ole Miss. Miami is the lone ACC representative and travels to College Station to take on Texas A&M. Group of Five’s James Madison aims to shock the world with a win against Oregon.
Below, we'll break down the top College Football Playoff first round picks for PrizePicks and CFB DFS in our cheat sheet, also listing projections for top players.
Just pick your players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and earn real-money rewards if you're right this season.
College Football Playoff First Round Picks for PrizePicks & CFB DFS
Here are the top CFB DFS picks for the College Football Playoff's first round. Use this analysis to make your PrizePicks picks for these games.
Alabama QB Ty Simpson Projection: 250.5 Pass+Rush Yards
No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 8 Oklahoma Pick – Friday, 8 p.m. ET
- QB Ty Simpson has more than 250 passing and rushing yards in two of his last five games. One of those was against Oklahoma, where he had 3 in a 23-21 Week 12 loss.
- Oklahoma ranks 20th in pressure rate (38.6%), via CFB Graphs. According to Pro Football Focus, Simpson’s 50.5% completion rate under pressure ranks 17th out of 85 QBs with a minimum of 100 dropbacks.
- Alabama ranks 22nd in pass play percentage (54.9%).
- Oklahoma is allowing opponents to throw on 51.8% of plays, 116th.
Miami QB Carson Beck Projection: 235.5 Passing Yards
No. 10 Miami vs. No. 7 Texas A&M Pick – Saturday, 12 p.m. ET
- Texas A&M’s defense ranks 14th in pressure rate (39.9%). Miami’s offensive line allows pressure on just 16.9% of snaps, the lowest in the FBS.
- The Aggies allow only 195.2 passing yards per game, 25th. QB Carson Beck has faced two opponents in the top 40 in that category, throwing for 240+ yards against both.
- Texas A&M ranks 17th in opponent completion percentage (56.2%) but have faced only one QB who's inside the top 30 in completion rate. LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier finished with a 62.6% clip against them, his season-high against an SEC opponent when attempting at least 30 passes.
- Beck’s 74.7% completion percentage ranks second this season and is the sixth-best single-season mark in CFB history.
Miami WR Malachi Toney Projection: 78.5 Receiving Yards
No. 10 Miami vs. No. 7 Texas A&M Pick – Saturday, 12 p.m. ET
- WR Malachi Toney ranks third in PFF receiving grade (90.5) this year.
- The true freshman ranks 12th in average yards after the catch (7.4).
- Toney lined up in the slot on 81.8% of snaps for the Hurricanes thus far in 2025.
- Texas A&M CB Tyreek Chappell may likely cover Toney. He allows an average of 9.8 yards after the catch, and his 153 total yards allowed post-catch as a slot corner are the 19th-most.
Ole Miss QB Trinidad Chambliss Projection: 272.5 Passing Yards
No. 11 Tulane vs. No. 6 Ole Miss Pick – Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
- QB Trinidad Chambliss has thrown for more than 272 yards in seven of his 10 games. One of them was against Tulane, when he had 307 in a 45-10 win back in Week 4.
- Chambliss became the first SEC player in the last 30 years to throw for 300+ passing yards and rush for 50+ yards in three consecutive games.
- The feel-good story signal-caller has the 13th-highest EPA per dropback (0.30), per Game on Paper.
- Tulane surrendered 0.37 EPA per dropback in Week 4, their third-worst allowance of the season.
Oregon RB Noah Whittington Projection: 82.5 Rushing Yards
No. 12 James Madison vs. No. 5 Oregon Pick – Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET
- RB Noah Whittington has rushed for fewer than 82 yards in two of his last three games.
- James Madison ranks fourth in PFF run defense grade (93.7).
- Whittington has faced one other opponent that ranks within the top five in that metric. He ran for 27 yards, his second-lowest performance, in a Week 4 30-20 loss to Indiana.
- James Madison allows 2.5 yards per carry, good for third. Whittington has squared off against two opponents sitting in the top 20 in YPC allowed. One of them, Washington (16th), held him to a season-worst 2.5-yard average.
Make College Football Playoff First Round Picks on PrizePicks
With the National Championship on the line, this could become a memorable weekend in college football.
Whether you're watching the rematch between Alabama and Oklahoma or James Madison’s attempt to upset Oregon, PrizePicks is the best way to cash in on your college football picks.
Just pick your players — including Ty Simpson and Trinidad Chambliss — predict More or Less on their stat projections, and get paid if your picks are correct.
Stay locked in on the Playbook for more CFB DFS picks and college football predictions throughout the 2025 season.
