A part of a doubleheader on Peacock, the Memphis Grizzlies (13-15) pay a visit to the Oklahoma City Thunder (25-3) with a 9:30 p.m. ET tip off at the Paycom Center.
Following a slow start, the Grizzlies are 7-3 over the previous 10 games, but they’re entering the lion’s den, as the Thunder are 8-2 during the same span and carry a 13-0 record at home.
Will Memphis contend with the NBA’s best? Below, we’ll look at a Grizzlies vs. Thunder prediction and stat projections at PrizePicks.
Grizzlies vs. Thunder Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Oklahoma City is undefeated in their last ten tilts against the Grizz, as well as 7-3 against the spread (ATS). The Thunder have taken the previous nine meetings by an average margin of +17.4 points.
According to the NBA injury report, Memphis G Ja Morant (ankle), F Brandon Clarke (calf), G Vince Williams Jr. (knee), and C Zach Edey (ankle) are out. OKC could be without most of its frontcourt rotation, as Thunder C Isaiah Hartenstein (calf) and C Jaylin Williams (heel) are out, while F/C Chet Holmgren (back) and F Aaron Wiggins (adductor) are questionable. And OKC uso (finger) Alex Caruso is questionable.
Grizzlies vs. Thunder Over/Under, Spread
The defending champion Thunder are a hefty 16.5-point favorites tonight, returning a 1.96x payout with a win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
The Grizzlies would return a 7.14x payout with a win for Monday’s matchup, featuring a healthy 230.5 total.
- Spread: Oklahoma City Thunder -16.5
- Over/Under: 230.5
- Game Winner Payout: Grizzlies 7.14x | Thunder 1.06x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Grizzlies vs. Thunder Prediction on Total
Memphis has a tall task ahead against the league’s top defensive rating, per NBA Advanced Stats. However, the Grizz have an angle for points from 3-point land, touting a 42.0% shot distribution (15th) while OKC gives up a 44.4% 3-point shot distribution (28th), via Dunks & Threes.
Extra possessions are a big lift to Memphis’ offense, as it carries a 31.7% offensive rebounding rate (tied for 11th). This is one of the Association’s most inefficient attacks, with a 45.2% field goal percentage (25th), 34.4% 3-point percentage (25th), and 52.4% effective field goal percentage (27th). The Grizzlies’ 11.9 offensive rebounds per contest (13th) is vital to their chances of putting points on the board.
For the Thunder, Hartenstein (10.6), Holmgren (7.8), and Williams (4.7) make up three of the defending champs’ four leaders in rebounds per game.
On the other side of the court, the Grizz rank 13th in offensive rating, while OKC sits fifth in offensive rating. The Thunder feature a balanced attack, carrying a 31.6% shot distribution around the rim (16th) and 41.7% mark from beyond the arc (17th).
Memphis F Jaren Jackson Jr. — the 2022-23 Defensive Player of the Year — anchors the Grizzlies' defense by ceding 47.9 points in the paint per game (tied for eighth). Oklahoma City’s 37.2% 3-point percentage (sixth) and 13.9 made triples per game (13th) could play a big factor, especially with injuries in the frontcourt.
Opponents hold a 43.9% 3-point shot distribution (27th), a 36.6% 3-point shot distribution (20th), and convert 14.6 treys per game (27th) against the Memphis defense. Over the last five games, the Thunder are shooting an efficient 39.2% from 3-point land.
Grizzlies vs. Thunder Prediction, Picks
Let’s look at PrizePicks’ projections for player stats. Efficient 3-point shooters stand out among the bunch, including Grizzlies G Cam Spencer and Thunder G Jalen Williams.
Grizzlies G Cam Spencer vs. Thunder Projection: 15.5 Points
- Memphis G Cam Spencer is averaging 19.3 points per game (PPG) paired with a 60.0% field goal percentage (FG%) and 60.0% 3-point percentage in December.
- Over his last 10 games, the former UConn Husky is racking up 3.6 made 3-pointers, giving him an advantage against the Thunder’s perimeter defense, allowing 14.0 made 3-pointers per game (22nd).
- Spencer averages 8.0 attempted field goals per game, but that has jumped to 10.1 over the last 11 games without Grizzlies G Ja Morant in the rotation.
- The second-year guard has reached 16 points in six of his previous seven appearances.
Thunder G Jalen Williams vs. Grizzlies Projection: 1.5 Made 3-Pointers
- Since returning from injury on November 28, Oklahoma City G Jalen Williams is shooting 40.0% from 3-point land.
- He’s converted at least two triples in three consecutive games, shooting 54.5% from deep during the span.
- According to Fantasy Labs, Williams’ 26.2% usage rate skyrockets to 33.9% when Oklahoma City big man Chet Holmgren is off the court.
Make Grizzlies vs. Thunder Picks on PrizePicks
With the Thunder dealing with a load of frontcourt injuries, can the Grizzlies keep it competitive on Monday night?
Check out a wide variety of player projections and Team Picks on PrizePicks, where you can earn real-money rewards for your predictions if you’re right.
Just choose players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and follow the hoops action to see if your picks hit.
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