The No. 10 seed Miami (FL) Hurricanes (10-2) against the No. 7 seed Texas A&M Aggies (11-1) is gearing up to perhaps be the crown jewel of Saturday’s three-game College Football Playoff slate. This is the only CFP meeting on Saturday featuring two Power Four teams.
Miami dodged a night game in Kyle Field, but the 12th Man could still be revved up for Saturday’s 12:00 p.m. ET kickoff on ABC. The Hurricanes ended the regular season on a dominant four-game winning streak, while Texas A&M was handed its first loss of the season by Texas in Rivalry Week (27-17).
Below, we’ll have an in-depth look at this 7-10 CFP matchup, diving into a Miami vs. Texas A&M prediction picks for the College Football Playoff first round and circling player stat projections for PrizePicks.
College Football Playoff: Miami vs. Texas A&M Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Miami and Texas A&M are two sleepers who may be capable of deep CFP runs. The Aggies were ranked as a top-five team for most of the regular season in a deep SEC. At one point, the Hurricanes were one of CFB’s best programs and still boast an impressive display of talent.
According to PrizePicks Team Picks, Miami has a 16.66x payout to win the National Championship (tied as seventh favorite), while Texas A&M carries a 9.09x payout (sixth favorite).
Miami vs. Texas A&M Over/Under, Spread
Alongside Friday’s 2.5-point spread for Alabama-Oklahoma, this is one of the smallest point spreads of the first round, with Texas A&M favored by 3.5 points on PrizePicks Team Picks.
Saturday’s 48.5 total hints at a healthy scoring environment. As underdogs with a 2.32x payout to win outright on PrizePicks Team Picks, can the Canes give the Aggies a run for their money?
- Spread: Texas A&M Aggies -3.5
- Over/Under: 48.5
- Game Winner Payout: Miami 2.32x | Texas A&M 1.56x
Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change
Miami vs. Texas A&M Prediction on Spread
Miami and Texas A&M feature similar styles as teams with explosive passing attacks and elite front sevens on defense.
According to Pro Football Focus, the Canes rank second in pass rush grade, while the Aggies are eighth. Furthermore, Miami is third in pass block grade, a step ahead of A&M at 22nd. The Hurricanes are fifth in sack rate allowed and 19th in sack percentage on defense, but the Aggies feature even better marks, ranked ninth and first.
Both passing attacks are capable of hitting big plays; Miami totals 8.6 yards per passing attempt (15th) and Texas A&M racks up 8.8 yards per try (11th). Elite pass rushes could limit these strengths. Miami DE Rueben Bain (fourth) and A&M DE Cashius Howell (26th) rank among NFL Mock Draft Database’s top 30 prospects for the 2026 NFL Draft.
Finding an efficient run game may be vital. The Hurricanes struggle on the ground, recording only 4.0 yards per rushing attempt (91st). Aggies RB Rueben Owens II (618 rushing yards) and QB Marcel Reed (466 rushing yards) form a dynamic one-two punch, leading to A&M averaging 5.0 yards per carry (25th).
With that said, Miami has the best rush defense of the matchup, allowing only 2.9 yards per attempt (seventh) compared to Texas A&M giving up 4.3 (68th).
In a tight matchup, attention falls to the turnover margin and red zone. The Canes sport a major advantage in both categories, boasting a +0.6 turnover margin (22nd) versus the Aggies’ -0.5 (103rd). In the red zone, Miami has a 93.5% scoring rate (seventh), far ahead of Texas A&M’s 83.3% (73rd).
Winning on the margins could be enough to help vault the Hurricanes to an upset win. College Football Nerds’ model projects a 29.8-18.5 Miami win on a neutral site. Keep an eye on the injury report, as star Canes CB Keionte Scott is probable.
Miami vs. Texas A&M Picks for College Football Playoff
Which Miami vs. Texas A&M stat projections at PrizePicks stand out among the bunch?
Miami RB Girard Pringle Jr. vs. Texas A&M Projection: 37.5 Rushing Yards
- Texas A&M's run defense checks out with advanced stats, as Game On Paper has the Aggies ceding 0.04 expected points added (EPA) per attempt (84th).
- Ranked 105th in EPA per carry (-0.06), the Hurricanes’ ground game has struggled for most of the season. However, Miami freshman RB Girard Pringle Jr. has become a beacon of hope thanks to his 6.2 yards per run.
- Pringle's exceptional efficiency has led to increased usage, averaging 13.7 rushing attempts per game over the final three regular-season games. The Tampa Bay native logged only 4.3 carries per contest over his first four outings.
- Pringle has averaged 82.3 rushing yards per game over the previous three.
- The Canes capped the regular season with a 38-7 win over Pittsburgh, which is tied for seventh in EPA per rush allowed (-0.11). That didn’t stop Pringle from racking up 10 carries for 82 yards.
Texas A&M WR KC Concepcion vs. Miami Projection: 4.5 Receptions
- A part of the Aggies’ explosive passing attack, WR KC Concepcion ranks 29th in NFL Mock Draft Database’s top 30 prospects for the draft. He boasts elite speed, proven by his 15.5 yards per catch, while earning First Team All-America honors as a specialist.
- A&M’s star WR is projected to have 60.5 receiving yards, but he’s reached 60 yards in only two of the past seven games. Concepcion’s projection of 4.5 receptions draws the eye.
- Despite fewer big plays from the speedster, he’s still carried reliable volume with 5.3 catches per game over the last four. Concepcion’s reached 5 receptions in three consecutive appearances.
- Since Week 11, the North Carolina native carries a healthy 8.0 targets per contest. Holding opponents to 6.1 yards per passing attempt (13th), Miami could limit Concepcion’s big plays, but his volume remains promising.
Make Miami vs. Texas A&M Predictions on PrizePicks
In a meeting between two fun passing attacks and elite pass rushes, this highly anticipated matchup could come down to the run game, red zone, and turnover battle.
Miami’s rushing numbers on the season lack, but freshman tailback Pringle is providing hope. Furthermore, the Hurricanes tout the best rush defense of this matchup. Paired with advantages for Miami in the red zone and turnover battle, is Texas A&M on upset alert?
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