The day has finally come that the Vanderbilt Commodores are ranked ahead of the Texas Longhorns in the polls to start November.
The No. 9 Commodores visit Austin on Saturday afternoon to face the No. 20 Longhorns as the two teams own 3-1 records in SEC play. The biggest question heading into this matchup is if Texas QB Arch Manning will suit up after being placed in concussion protocol.
Let’s dive into this Vanderbilt vs. Texas prediction and NCAAF picks for this SEC showdown, kicking off at 12:00 p.m. ET on ABC at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium. Use PrizePicks to make CFB picks on player projections from the slate and win real money if you're right.
Vanderbilt vs. Texas Prediction, Preview for Week 10
Manning is questionable after suffering a concussion in last Saturday’s 45-38 comeback victory in overtime at Mississippi State. The Longhorns trailed 31-14 heading into the fourth quarter before rallying for their second-straight overtime road triumph.
The prized Texas signal-caller practiced both Wednesday and Thursday, looking to clear concussion protocol prior to Saturday. Manning finished 346 passing yards and 3 TDs in the aforementioned.
Vanderbilt deserves its due props following consecutive home victories over LSU and Missouri. Since losing its only game of the season at Alabama, the Commodores grabbed a pair of wins over ranked opponents to equal its conference win total from 2024.
Vanderbilt Commodores Preview vs. Texas
- The Commodores have been terrific offensively this season. Per Game on Paper, Vandy ranks 13th in EPA/pass, fourth in EPA/rush, and fourth in offensive success rate.
- Defending the pass has been an issue for Vanderbilt this season, sitting 112th in EPA/pass, which is the third-worst among SEC teams.
- From the start of 2019 through September 2024, the Commodores were 1-20 on the road against SEC opponents. In the last five away contests against the SEC, Vandy is 3-2 and was tied with Alabama at the half of a 30-14 defeat on October 4.
Texas Longhorns Preview vs. Vanderbilt
- The Longhorns are hosting the Commodores for the first time as SEC foes. In their initial conference matchup in Nashville last season, UT held off Vandy, 27-24.
- This will be the first home SEC game for Texas this season, and its first back in Austin since a 55-0 blowout of Sam Houston State on September 20.
- Head coach Steve Sarkisian’s team has put up solid defensive metrics. The Longhorns rank third nationally in EPA/rush and 34th in EPA/pass while allowing 14 or fewer points in six of eight games.
Vanderbilt vs. Texas Picks & CFB DFS
Below are the top Vanderbilt vs. Texas picks for Saturday afternoon’s battle. Use PrizePicks to make picks on player projections for Week 10 and beyond.
Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia Projection: 171.5 Passing Yards
- Diego Pavia is coming off his worst offensive performance in Week 9's 17-10 victory over Missouri. He threw for a season-low 129 yards and completed 10 passes, as the Commodores scored their fewest points of 2025.
- The senior hasn’t thrown for more than 200 yards in 10 straight games against SEC opponents. Pavia did reach 177 passing yards against South Carolina and 198 yards in the Alabama loss this season.
- In last year's three-point loss to the ‘Horns, Pavia threw for 143 yards. On the final drive, he compiled 61 yards with Vandy trailing 27-17 and led them to a TD, which was too little, too late.
- Texas has yielded at least 200 passing yards in each of its four SEC contests this season.
Vanderbilt WR Tre Richardson Projection: 36.5 Receiving Yards
- Tre Richardson didn’t pick up a reception against LSU, but rebounded with 62 yards on 4 catches in the win over Missouri.
- Week 9 marked his highest yardage output against a conference foe after getting held to a total of 38 receiving yards against South Carolina, Alabama, and LSU.
- The junior is coming off his highest-graded offensive performance against an SEC team, according to PFF. He pulled out a 71.3 grade last Saturday after failing to top the 65-point mark in the previous three conference contests.
- Texas has allowed 10 receivers in the last four games to rack up at least 60 receiving yards.
Texas K Mason Shipley Projection: 6.5 Kicking Points
- Mason Shipley has been busy the past three games, registering 11 points against Oklahoma, 10 against Kentucky, and 9 in last Saturday’s triumph at Mississippi State.
- In all three home games, Shipley has eclipsed this projection, averaging 10 points per game.
- His two lowest outputs came on the road against Ohio State (1) and Florida (3). In both those games, he did not attempt a field goal.
- The Commodores have given up at least 7 points to kickers in two of the last three games.
Make Picks on CFB on PrizePicks
Vanderbilt seeks another SEC victory, heading into the hostile environment of Austin to face Texas on Saturday afternoon.
Ahead of the Vanderbilt vs. Texas kickoff at 12:00 p.m. ET, it's time to make your CFB picks on PrizePicks. Just pick your players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in on your predictions if you're right.
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