Easter brings a Sunday Night Baseball collision between the St. Louis Cardinals (4-4) and the Detroit Tigers (4-4) at 7:20 p.m. ET, televised by Peacock. Following back-to-back wins, the Tigers are seeking a sweep in tonight’s series finale.
Following a rough start to the 2026 season, Cardinals SP Kyle Leahy (5.39 xFIP) will take the mound against Tigers SP Keider Montero (4.46 xFIP in 2025), who will make his season debut tonight.
Let’s break down the matchup, make a Cardinals vs. Tigers prediction, and circle a pair of player projections to target for MLB picks on PrizePicks.
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Cardinals vs. Tigers Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under
Entering the 2026 season, the Tigers were the favorite to win the AL Central, while the Cardinals were last by a sizeable gap in the NL Central.
Through eight games, Detroit still has the shortest payout to win the AL Central (2x), while St. Louis’ chances of winning the NL Central have plummeted to 22.22x for “Yes” to win the NL Central, per PrizePicks Team Picks.
After being swept by the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Tigers have bounced back with back-to-back comfortable wins over the Cards, 4-0 and 11-6. Detroit hit only 1 home run over its first six games but has racked up 5 long balls in this series — including 4 in Game 2.
St. Louis began the season by recording 7.3 runs and 10.3 hits per game vs. the Rays. However, that’s sharply dropped to 2.6 runs and 5.4 hits per contest over the last five games.
Another uphill battle could be ahead, as Cardinals SP Kyle Leahy recorded an 8.61 xERA and 5.39 xFIP in his first start of the season, per FanGraphs. He made 61 appearances in 2025 and 33 outings in 2024 as a reliever. St. Louis’ starting experiment has not paid off thus far.
Tigers SP Keider Montero posted so-so numbers in 2025, including a 4.65 xERA, 4.46 xFIP, and 4.47 SIERA.
Cardinals vs. Tigers Winner Payout, Over/Under
The Cardinals’ cold streak could keep up as a road underdog with their 2.12x payout for an outright win today on PrizePicks Team Picks.
For the third consecutive game of the series, the Tigers are favored with a 1.69x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: Tigers -1.5 (2.5x)
- Over/Under: 7.5 Runs (1.75x payout on over)
- Game Winner Payout: Cardinals 2.12x | Tigers 1.69x
Team picks data is live as of this writing and is subject to change.
Cardinals vs. Tigers Prediction on Over/Under – 4/5/26
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your Cardinals vs. Tigers prediction for the over/under on Sunday, April 5, on PrizePicks.
- While Leahy allowed 8 hits and 4 earned runs in his season debut, he carries an encouraging 3.07 ERA and 3.76 xFIP from 2025.
- Furthermore, the Cards starter surrendered only 0.51 HR/9 last season, but he finished in the 20th percentile of hard-hit rate allowed, via Baseball Savant.
- That’s carried over to 2026, with Leahy allowing a 52.4% hard-hit rate in his sole start (20th percentile).
- Detroit’s .384 SLG is currently tied for 11th in MLB, and we mentioned its home run success of late.
- In 2025, Montero stumbled against power hitters, yielding an 8.1% barrel rate (53rd percentile) and 1.59 HR/9.
- Despite recent struggles, the Cardinals have still posted 1.0 home runs per game (13th), including 1.7 per contest in their season-opening series vs. the Rays.
- Montero’s four-seam fastball (30.8%) and sinker (19.9%) were two of his three most-used pitches last season, and St. Louis has compiled the fifth-most runs above average vs. fastballs and the 13th-highest mark against sinkers.
- The Tigers’ bullpen currently has a 4.63 xFIP (22nd), compared to the Cards’ 5.26 mark (26th).
Cardinals vs. Tigers Picks for PrizePicks Today: 4/5/26
Check out a pair of MLB picks to target for Cardinals vs. Tigers on Sunday, April 5. Cardinals SP Kyle Leahy and Tigers DH Colt Keith headline player stat projections via PrizePicks.
Cardinals SP Kyle Leahy vs. Tigers Projection: 4 Strikeouts
- As a reliever in 2025, Leahy posted a 22.0% strikeout rate (45th percentile), per Baseball Savant.
- In his only start of 2026, the right-handed hurler recorded 1 K over 5.0 innings of work.
- That’s translated to an alarming 4.2 K%, putting Leahy in the second percentile of the category.
- After recording 11.0 strikeouts per game over the first five matchups of the season, the Tigers averaged only 6.0 over their last three games.
- In 2025, Leahy was in the 49th percentile of chase rate compared to the 30th percentile for whiff percentage.
- Detroit currently sports a 29.7% chase rate, the fourth-lowest mark in baseball.
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Tigers DH Colt Keith vs. Cardinals Projection: 5 Hitter Fantasy Score
- In his third season in the majors, Tigers DH Colt Keith has increased his slugging numbers across the board.
- He was in the 27th percentile of bat speed, 51st percentile of hard-hit rate, and 52nd percentile of barrel percentage last season.
- Keith currently sits in the 74th percentile of bat speed and hard-hit rate, plus the 66th percentile for barrel rate.
- This has translated to an excellent .417 batting average and .555 xSLG, while launching four extra-base hits over seven appearances.
- In 2025, Keith batted .267 vs. right-handed pitchers, compared to .163 when facing lefties.
- Against the right-handed Leahy, the Tigers’ designated hitter could have another big day.
Make Cardinals vs. Tigers Picks on PrizePicks
With both starters on the bump for Sunday Night Baseball struggling against power, could the series finale of the Cardinals vs. Tigers be bound for a high-scoring affair? Keith may be one angle for findng value for MLB picks.
You can make your Cardinals vs. Tigers picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick MLB players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. And with Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
Stick around with the Playbook for continued MLB predictions, picks, and news throughout the 2026 season.
