Brewers vs. Rays Prediction, MLB Picks for World Series Game 3 – Monday, October 26

The Milwaukee Brewers and Tampa Bay Rays play Game 3 of the World Series at 8 p.m. ET on Monday, October 26, and the matchup will air on FOX. The Rays are home favorites with a 1.78x payout if they win outright, per PrizePicks.

While Games 1 and 2 were both nail-biters decided by a single run apiece, the Brewers emerged with a 2-0 World Series lead and are now just two victories away from their first-ever championship. The Rays now find themselves in a must-win Game 3 at Tropicana Field to avoid a near-insurmountable series deficit.  

Below, we'll break down our Brewers vs. Rays prediction and picks for Monday’s World Series Game 3 matchup, including the winner, over/under, and key player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Brewers vs. Rays picks for World Series Game 3 on PrizePicks now!

{{mlb_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Brewers vs. Rays Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under for World Series Game 3 – Monday, October 26

The Rays enter Monday’s game as a home favorite against the Brewers, returning a 1.78x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks — or an estimated $178 on a $100 entry.

Here are the full payouts for the Brewers vs. Rays game on PrizePicks. 

PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Make your Brewers vs. Rays prediction on winner, over/under, and more on PrizePicks.

In Game 2, Tampa Bay rushed out to a 4-0 lead in the top of the first inning and looked to be in prime position to even the series following a 3-2 defeat in Game 1.

Instead, the Rays never scored again, and the Brewers would chip away and eventually take the lead in the seventh frame for a 5-4 win. Having the game end on a controversial check-swing strikeout with the tying run at third base had to particularly sting for Tampa Bay.

The Rays will now turn to SP Freddy Peralta to try and prevent a dreaded 0-3 hole. In the regular season, he posted a solid 3.84 xERA between the New York Mets and Rays, per Baseball Savant.  

Peralta could be the right man for the job, as he’s fresh off winning ALCS MVP honors. Across four appearances (three starts) this postseason, the right-hander has allowed just 2 earned runs in 16.2 innings — good for a sparkling 1.08 ERA.

Peralta's also seen a historic jump in velocity in the playoffs, averaging 96.9 MPH compared to 94.3 in the regular season.

Despite all that success for “Fastball Freddy,” he’s logged just 12 strikeouts to 7 walks, which comes to a 17.4% K-rate and 10.1% BB-rate. Still, he hasn’t given up more than 1 earned run in any of his last nine starts dating back to the regular season.

The Brewers will counter Peralta with SP Robert Gasser, who’s also found success this postseason. The 27-year-old lefty has made two playoff starts, conceding 1 earned run in 9.0 innings with 6 strikeouts and 2 walks.

Gasser opened the year in Triple-A but now finds himself in position to help Milwaukee take a commanding lead in this World Series.

In the regular season, the southpaw produced a middle-of-the-pack 4.27 xERA, but much like Peralta, he’s performed well since late August, allowing 1 or fewer earned runs in seven of his last eight starts. 

Although the margins have been thin over the first two games, the Brewers have been the superior team at the plate thus far, posting a .344 wOBA compared to a .268 wOBA for the Rays. Tampa Bay really needs to cut down on strikeouts, as they put up a worrisome 27.1% K-rate in Games 1 and 2.  

Brewers vs. Rays Prediction on Winner for World Series Game 3 – 10/26/26

Here are the key MLB stats and trends behind our Brewers vs. Rays prediction on the winner for Monday, October 26.

• In the regular season, Peralta saw a noticeable improvement in ERA after being acquired by Tampa Bay. He posted a 3.25 ERA with the Rays compared to a 4.88 ERA with the Mets. However, his improvement in xERA was almost negligible between the two teams (3.74 vs. 3.86).
• Peralta’s success in these playoffs could be partially driven by fortune. The righty’s 1.08 postseason ERA is significantly lower than his xFIP (5.73) and SIERA (5.25). Further, he’s recorded a .229 BABIP, a 96.8% strand rate, and a 3.4% HR/FB rate, all of which are outlier marks.
• Gasser produced a roughly league-average strikeout rate in the regular season (22.3%). However, the left-hander was in the 93rd percentile in average exit velocity allowed (86.5 MPH).
• Milwaukee’s bullpen has been elite this postseason, posting a 2.73 xERA and 25.9% strikeout rate over 50.2 innings. 
• The Brewers have been the best offense by most metrics in the playoffs, which includes putting up the highest wRC+ (108) and xwOBA (.337). The Rays have managed just an 80 wRC+ and .279 xwOBA.
• This coincides with Milwaukee averaging the second-most runs per game this season (5.08), whereas Tampa Bay is in the middle of the pack (4.49). 
• Against lefties, the Rays posted the fourth-worst wOBA (.300) and worst ISO (.116) in the regular season.
• Milwaukee is 9-1 this postseason and has won seven straight games.   

Lock in your Brewers vs. Rays prediction on PrizePicks for World Series Game 3 tonight.

Brewers vs. Rays Picks, Player Stats for World Series on PrizePicks: 10/26/26

Here are the top Brewers vs. Rays picks to target on Monday, October 26. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Christian Yelich and Jonathan Aranda.

Brewers DH Christian Yelich vs. Rays: 5 Fantasy Score

• Yelich has posted the Brewers’ fourth-best xwOBA this postseason (.380).
• At age 34, Yelich is no longer the force he once was at the plate, but he was still above average in both barrel rate (9.6%) and hard-hit rate (42.9%) in the regular season.
• The Brewers stole the fifth-most bases in the regular season (162). They’ve swiped 16 bags in 10 games this postseason, which includes 3 by Yelich.
• Yelich has recorded at least 1 hit in seven of the eight games he’s started in the playoffs. He’s scored double-digit fantasy points in three of the last four starts.
• The Brewers DH was moved up to third in the batting order for Games 1 and 2 and figures to hit that high once again tonight. 

Add Christian Yelich + Brewers to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.

{{mlb_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}

Rays 1B Jonathan Aranda vs. Brewers: 5 Fantasy Score

• In the regular season, Aranda produced a .343 xwOBA (78th percentile). He has by far the best xwOBA for the Rays in the playoffs (.403).
• The first baseman also leads the team in hard hits (19) this postseason, giving him a hefty 52.8% hard-hit rate.
• He’s really cut down on the punchouts in the playoffs, logging one of the Rays’ best K-rates (14.6%).
• Aranda has recorded multiple hits in three of his last five games.
• A lefty-lefty matchup against Gasser isn’t ideal, but Gasser went 4.0 and 5.0 innings in his first two postseason outings. Additionally, the left-hander has posted a modest 16.2% strikeout rate in the playoffs.
• Aranda has been locked into the 2-hole regardless of who's on the mound.

Pick Jonathan Aranda + Rays to win on PrizePicks for higher payouts!

Make Brewers vs. Rays Game 3 Picks on PrizePicks

The Tampa Bay Rays desperately need a win to turn the tide against the Milwaukee Brewers. Can they get the job done at home?

Don’t wait until the first pitch of World Series Game 3 tonight — make your Brewers vs. Rays picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on MLB game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 36 states.

Stay locked in on Playbook for daily MLB predictions, picks, and news all the way through the 2026 MLB season.