Rays vs. Brewers Prediction, MLB Picks for World Series Game 1 – Friday, October 23

The Tampa Bay Rays and Los Angeles Dodgers play Game 1 of the World Series at 8 p.m. ET on Friday, October 23 on FOX. The Brewers are home favorites and return a 1.51x payout if they win outright, per PrizePicks.

Tampa Bay faced some adversity early in the ALCS but ultimately won three straight to advance in six games over the Cleveland Guardians. Meanwhile, Milwaukee wasn’t messing around against the vaunted Los Angeles Dodgers, slaying the giant in an emphatic series sweep to take the NLCS.

Not only are we getting a battle between the top seeds in each league, but we’re also guaranteed a first-time World Series champion when it’s all said and done. Which team will draw first blood?   

Below, we'll break down our Rays vs. Brewers prediction and picks for Friday’s World Series Game 1 matchup, including the favorite, over/under, and key MLB player picks for PrizePicks.

Make your Rays vs. Brewers picks for World Series Game 1 on PrizePicks now!

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Rays vs. Brewers Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under for World Series Game 1 – Friday, October 23

The Brewers enter Friday’s game as a home favorite against the Rays, returning a 1.51x payout if they win outright, via PrizePicks — or an estimated $151 on a $100 entry.

Here are the full payouts for the Rays vs. Brewers game on PrizePicks. 

PrizePicks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.

Make your Rays vs. Brewers prediction on winner, over/under, and more on PrizePicks.

In Game 1, the Rays will start SP Nick Martinez, while the Brewers will roll with SP Jacob Misiorowski. Most expected Tampa Bay to go with SP Drew Rasmussen tonight, but the team is opting to give its ace an extra day of rest. 

The Rays haven’t been afraid to give Martinez an early hook in his two postseason starts, but he’s done enough to help Tampa to a pair of wins. He’s allowed 3 earned runs over 9.0 innings but has done so with just 6 strikeouts.

During the regular season, Martinez was roughly league average in xERA (3.98), but he generally found success by suppressing free passes and loud contact with a 3.6% walk rate (100th percentile) and 32.9% hard-hit rate (88th percentile), per Baseball Savant.

However, he managed just a 15.1% strikeout rate (fourth percentile), which can get him in trouble at times.

Meanwhile, Misiorowski was lights out in the regular season, but he’s been just okay through two postseason starts, limiting the damage but failing to reach 5.0 innings in either outing. 

Overall, he’s allowed 3 earned runs in 8.1 innings while logging 11 strikeouts and 4 walks. Curiously, the right-hander hasn’t been getting nearly as many swings and misses on his fastball despite maintaining his elite velocity, and he struggled with free passes in his second appearance.

The good news for the Brewers is they still won both games he started, and their ace has now had 11 days of rest following their NLCS sweep, giving him plenty of time to both recover and perhaps recapture his peak form.

If Misiorowski can bring his A-game, it could be a tough day at the office for the Rays’ bats. In the regular season, the righty was in the 99th percentile or better in xERA (2.13), strikeout rate (37.9%), whiff rate (37.3%), and fastball velocity (100.6 mph).

He accomplished all this while showing strong marks in both walk rate (6.6%) and barrel rate (3.6%), too.

Offensively, the Brewers were one of the league’s best in the regular season, averaging the second-most runs per game (5.09), while the Rays were more middle of the pack (4.51).

Milwaukee has carried that over into the playoffs by posting a .334 xwOBA compared to Tampa Bay putting up a middling .287 xwOBA.

Rays vs. Brewers Prediction on Over/Under for World Series Game 1 – 10/23/26

Here are the key MLB stats and trends behind our Rays vs. Brewers prediction on the over/under for Friday, October 23.

• Despite posting a pristine 3.10 ERA this year, Martinez had less encouraging marks in xFIP (4.47) and SIERA (4.63).
• Misiorowski has still managed solid numbers in the playoffs despite his lack of innings, but both his strikeout rate (29.7%) and walk rate (10.8%) have been worse than what we saw in the regular season.
• Tampa Bay’s hitters combined for the league’s lowest strikeout rate (18.8%) this year.
• The Brewers were tied for a league-best 112 wRC+ against right-handed pitching in the regular season. The Rays weren’t far behind, though, posting a 110 wRC+.
• These offenses were among five teams to steal 160+ bases in 2026. That has continued in the playoffs, as both teams have tallied double-digit stolen bases.    

Lock in your Brewers vs. Dodgers prediction on PrizePicks for World Series Game 1 tonight.

Rays vs. Brewers Picks, Player Stats for World Series on PrizePicks: 10/23/26

Here are the top Rays vs. Brewers picks to target on Friday, October 23. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks include Yandy Diaz and Jake Bauers.

Rays DH Yandy Diaz vs. Brewers: 5.5 Fantasy Score

• In the playoffs, Diaz leads the Rays in barrels (4) and is second in hard hits (13). He’s posted a .388 wOBA and .256 ISO across 41 plate appearances.
• Diaz has logged at least 1 hit in eight of the Rays’ nine games and has scored 1+ runs six times. Over his last four games, he’s scored 7, 23, 13, and 18 fantasy points.
• In the regular season, he was above the 80th percentile in xwOBA (.346), strikeout rate (14.3%), and hard-hit rate (48.1%). 
• Misiorowski is a menace against both sides of the plate, but he’s actually tougher on left-handed batters. During the regular season, he posted a sky-high 44.5% strikeout rate against lefties compared to a 29.8% clip against righties. Diaz bats right-handed.
• Diaz hits leadoff, giving him a better chance of getting an extra plate appearance late in the game.

Add Yandy Diaz + Rays to win to your PrizePicks lineup now.

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Brewers 1B Jake Bauers vs. Rays: 5 Fantasy Score

• The NLCS MVP has scored 11, 5, 7, 16, and 13 fantasy points over his last five games.
• In the regular season, Bauers was above the 90th percentile in xwOBA (.371), barrel rate (14.0%), hard-hit rate (51.9%), and walk rate (16.3%).
• Bauer had an unsightly 27.0% strikeout rate in the regular season, and that’s ballooned to a 38.3% clip in the playoffs. However, that’s less of a concern against a low-strikeout pitcher like Martinez.
• The first baseman has offset that high K-rate with a 20.6% walk rate this postseason. He’s walked at least once in five of the last six games.
• Against right-handed pitching, Bauers posted a .379 xwOBA, a 56.4% hard-hit rate, and a 14.7% barrel rate during the regular season. Additionally, 18 of his 26 home runs came off right-handers.

Pick Jake Bauers + Brewers to win on PrizePicks for higher payouts!

Make Rays vs. Brewers Game 1 Picks on PrizePicks

The Tampa Bay Rays and the Milwaukee Brewers were the best teams in the regular season and now meet up in Game 1 of the World Series. Which club will come away with the victory tonight?

Don’t wait until the first pitch of World Series Game 1 — make your Rays vs. Brewers picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right.

Pick players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on MLB game winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 36 states.

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