Italy enters its World Cup qualifier vs. Northern Ireland with immense pressure, as an entire nation hopes to avoid missing out on the soccer showcase for the third consecutive time.
The match kicks off at 3:45 p.m. ET on Peacock, with the Azzurri hosting at New Balance Arena. The intimate setting of just 25,000 fans should give the home side a huge lift vs. Northern Ireland, who will be looking to absorb pressure and perhaps find that one moment of brilliance that could see them advance.
Below, we’ll break down our Italy vs. Northern Ireland prediction and picks for Thursday afternoon’s game. Make your picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
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Italy vs. Northern Ireland Prediction, Picks for World Cup Qualifying – Thursday, March 26
The appointment of manager Gennaro Gattuso last summer has proven to be a wise move for the Azzurri. He’s won every match excpect Italy’s last outing, a 4-1 defeat to Norway.
Thursday’s match is a win or go home scenario, so Italy could revert to its prior form. Gattuso’s implemented a 3-5-2 setup with an emphasis on keeping possession, as they’ve kept the ball at nearly a 63% rate since he took over.
Italy GK Gigi Donnarumma anchors a defense that has kept three clean sheets in their last four outings on Italian soil. While FW Federico Chiesa and FW Gianluca Scamacca will miss out in attack, the Italian forwards will likely be looked for early and often by DF Federico Dimarco as he creates chances from the left flank.
Only Germany’s 3-0 win in Koln saw Norhtern Ireland's defense breached more than once, but it did concede in all three away qualifiers.
Nearly the entire starting XI hails from the English Championship, putting them at a serious talent disadvantage. CB Daniel Ballard is a major doubt, and his absence would rob Northern Ireland of one of its only Premier League players. The club will also be without starting LB Jamal Lewis.
The absence of Northern Ireland's captain, Liverpool midfielder Conor Bradley, is perhaps the biggest blow. He will miss out after suffering a knee injury in January vs. Arsenal.
Northern Ireland is happy to defend for long stretches. Of the 54 nations involved in UEFA World Cup qualification, only eight saw less of the ball per match.
While the Italians tout the superior talent, the pressure on the favorites cannot be overstated. Northern Ireland is likely to stay compact and look for an opportunity to hit Italy on the counterattack. However, that won’t be easy against Italy’s three-man back line.
Northern Ireland have just one victory in their last 10 away fixtures, excluding friendlies. Meanwhile, Italy have lost a home World Cup qualifier twice in the last 92 years.
Italy vs. Northern Ireland Spread, Total Goals, Payouts – 3/26/26
Italy enters Thursday’s game as massive home favorites, returning a 1.23x payout ($100 entry pays out $123) on PrizePicks Team Picks if the Azzurri outright.
Northern Ireland are huge road underdogs with an 11.11x ($1111 payout on a $100 entry) payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
Winner Payout: Italy – 1.23x | Tie – 5.26x | Northern Ireland – 11.11x
Spread: Italy -1.5 (1.78x Payout)
Total Goals: 2.5 (Over – 1.78x)
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change. Does not include extra time or penalties.
Italy vs. Northern Ireland Prediction on Total Goals for March 26, 2026
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your Italy vs. Northern Ireland prediction on total goals for Thursday, March 26 in the UEFA World Cup Qualification. Check out more of our soccer picks and predictions on PrizePicks.
- Italy have been a possession-based side since Gattuso’s appointment, averaging 62.84% control of the ball.
- Northern Ireland have been content to concede possession and sit in a compact 5-4-1 shape, allowing opponents 63.92% possession on average.
- Northern Ireland managed just 4.60 xG in their six World Cup qualifying matches, but also conceded just 6.90 xG against.
- Italy’s 8.30 xGA over eight matches was one of the lowest marks per-match of any nation in UEFA World Cup qualification.
- Three of Italy’s last four home matches have seen the Azzurri keep a clean sheet.
- Northern Ireland allowed an average of just 3 shots on target per match, conceding 6 goals in total.
- The Azzurri conceded 15 goals in eight qualification matches, with Norway accounting for eight over two outings.
- Italy’s 7 shots on target per match were tied for the ninth-most of any team in UEFA qualification.
- There's been exactly 1 goal scored in Northern Ireland’s last three matches.
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Italy vs. Northern Ireland Projected XIs
Here are the projected Italy vs. Northern Ireland lineups for today's UEFA World Cup Qualification match. Lineups are not official.
Italy Lineup vs. Northern Ireland: Projected 3-5-2
- Goalkeeper: Gianluigi Donnarumma
- Defense: Gianluca Mancini, Alessandro Bastoni, Riccardo Calafiori
- Midfield: Matteo Politano, Nicolo Barella, Manuel Locatelli, Sandro Tonali, Federico Dimarco
- Forwards: Moise Kean, Mateo Retegui
Northern Ireland Lineup vs. Italy: Projected 5-4-1
- Goalkeeper: Pierce Charles
- Defense: Terry Devlin, Ruairi McConville, Paddy McNair, Ciaron Brown, Trai Hume
- Midfield: Ethan Galbraith, Shea Charles, Alistair McCann, Justin Devenny
- Forwards: Isaac Price
Italy vs. Northern Ireland Picks for UEFA World Cup Qualification – Thursday, March 26
Here are two top Italy vs. Northern Ireland picks to target on players for Thursday, March 26 for PrizePicks. Player stat projections via PrizePicks are headlined by Italy GK Gianluigi Donnarumma and Northern Ireland FW Isaac Price.
Italy GK Gianluigi Donnarumma vs. Northern Ireland: 24.5 Passes Attempted
- Italian goalkeepers averaged 25.13 passes per matchupthrough eight World Cup qualifiers.
- Donnarumma attempted at least 28 passes in every qualifier except his two matches vs. Norway, which was the only team that didn’t play in a low block vs. Italy.
- Northern Ireland ceded at least 60% possession in its last five qualifiers, including to Luxembourg, as they set up in a very low block.
- In their six qualifiers, Northern Ireland’s opposing goalkeepers averaged 41.67 passes with at least 29 passes attempted in each match.
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Northern Ireland FW Isaac Price vs. Italy: 1.5 Shots
- Isaac Price led Northern Ireland in shots per match, averaging 2.37 shots per 90 minutes in six World Cup qualifiers.
- The Northern Ireland attacker attempted multiple shots in four of his six matches, including his last three.
- Price can make an impact if allowed space, as his 1.52 successful dribbles per 90 minutes put him in the 88th percentile of all players during UEFA World Cup qualification.
- The attacker played at least 84 minutes in each of his six appearances during qualification.
- As Northern Ireland’s primary outlet on the counter-attack, Price can exploit the space behind Dimarco if he's deployed on the right instead of as a striker.
Make Your Italy vs. Northern Ireland Picks on PrizePicks
Italy and Northern Ireland each know they must find a way to win in order to play for a spot in the World Cup finals next week. The winner of Wales vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina awaits, and the Azzurri are massive favorites to move on.
Italy vs. Northern Ireland is one of eight UEFA World Cup qualification fixtures taking place on Thursday. That means there’s plenty of soccer action to get involved with on PrizePicks.
You can make your UEFA World Cup qualifier picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats like shots or goals, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
Stick around with the Playbook for continued UEFA World Cup qualifier predictions, picks, and analysis until a champion is crowned.
