Spain and Argentina meet in the 2026 World Cup Final on Sunday, July 19 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ, with kickoff set for 3 p.m. ET. Spain is favored to lift the trophy, returning a 1.61x payout on PrizePicks with a win, while the underdog Argentina has a 2.17x payout.
For the first time ever, we get a World Cup final featuring the reigning UEFA champions and Copa America champions. Spain can repeat their feat from 2010, when they became only the second active UEFA champion to win the World Cup.
Meanwhile, Argentina hasn't lost a knockout stage match at a major tournament since 2019 and would become just the third nation to repeat as world champions should they emerge victorious. It'd also provide Lionel Messi one more data point towards possibly being the greatest player to ever play the sport.
Below, we’ll break down our Spain vs. Argentina prediction and picks for Sunday afternoon’s World Cup Final match, including the spread, total goals, and key player picks for PrizePicks.
Make your Spain vs. Argentina prediction and World Cup final picks on PrizePicks now!
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Spain vs. Argentina World Cup Final Prediction, Spread, Over/Under – Sunday, July 19
How to watch Spain vs. Argentina: FOX (English) | Telemundo & FOX One (Spanish)
Kickoff Time: 3 p.m. ET
Venue: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ, USA
Sunday’s final between Spain and Argentina will be just the fourth meeting ever between two nations steeped in football tradition. While both were strong favorites to win the tournament before it began, their paths here were quite different.
Argentina have ridden fortunate timing, clutch goals, and plenty of controversial calls to reach the World Cup final. Perhaps their biggest stroke of potential luck was England manager Thomas Tuchel deciding to bring on seven defenders and allow Messi and Argentina to lay siege to their penalty area for nearly a half-hour.
The result was the reversal of fortunes in a match where Argentina was being thoroughly outplayed in the middle of the park. Prior to England’s decision to bunker in, the Three Lions were repeatedly winning the ball back and hitting Argentina on the counter attack.
Additionally, both Argentina’s central defenders were on yellow cards as they struggled with Harry Kane and Jude Bellingham in space. Both Lisandro Martínez and Cristian Romero tend to maraud out of position, looking for the aggressive challenge with a tendency to foul when they fail.
That sort of play is dangerous against a Spanish side that has defeated opponents via death by a thousand passes. Okay, maybe a thousand is an exaggeration. It’s only 639.14 per match, fourth-most at the tournament behind Germany, Argentina, and Algeria.
But Spain’s midfield is anchored by Rodri, who is back to his Ballon d’Or winning form of a few years ago. Only Argentina CM Leandro Paredes is averaging more than his 101.2 passes. The difference is Rodri isn’t the only Spaniard pinging the ball from deep.
Both CB Pau Cubarsi and Aymeric Laporte are averaging better than 81.1 passes attempted, with CM Fabián Ruiz attempting 84.1 per match. This gives Spain a major advantage in a bout between two nations who both want the ball.
A key reason for that is the fact that Messi doesn’t pressure. He runs very little these days — and understandably so — but winning possession off this Spanish side is hard enough.
Allowing them to dictate possession and execute the movement they do would be a real problem for an Argentine defense that has been bleeding goals during the knockout stage. And unlike England, if Spain gets a lead, they’ll defend not by sitting back but by making Argentina chase the ball.
Spain also may look to Lamine Yamal to step up. Everyone knows the history of Yamal and Messi’s photoshoot from nearly two decades ago. But Yamal has scored just 1 goal and assisted none despite 386 touches in the tournament. This is a match where he could cause real problems for an aging and slow defense.
Messi has gotten scoring help the past two matches as he’s become more of a playmaker. He’ll have to find a way to pick out teammates for a goal against a Spanish defense that has conceded just 1 goal overall and held France to just 0.31 xG in the semifinals.
The concern for Argentina is what happens if this match is level late or goes into extra time. Spain’s midfield depth is considerably stronger than theirs, and LW Nico Williams presents a serious threat off the bench as well.
Argentina might need some more luck to find a way through on this one. Otherwise, it could take some Messi magic to prevent Spain from lifting the second World Cup trophy in their nation’s history.
Spain vs. Argentina World Cup Final: Favorite to Advance, Spread, Total Goals – Sunday, July 19
Spain enters Sunday’s match as favorites, returning a 1.61x payout if they lift the trophy, via PrizePicks Team Picks. Meanwhile Argentina will look to Lionel Messi to once again spur them to victory.
Here are the full payouts for the Spain vs. Argentina match on PrizePicks.
- To Win: Spain 1.61x | Argentina 2.17x
- 90 Minute Winner: Spain 2.17x | Draw 2.85x | Argentina 3.22x
- Spread: Spain -1.5 (4.34x Payout)
- Total Goals: 2.5 (Over – 2.22x)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes 1.69x | No 2.08x
Team Picks markets are settled after full-time (90 minutes + stoppage). Extra time and penalties are not included.
Payouts show potential returns on correct Team Picks predictions. A 2x payout returns $200 on a $100 entry. Lower multipliers reflect outcomes users are picking as more likely. Payouts are live as of writing and subject to change.
Make your Spain vs. Argentina spread or goals on PrizePicks Team Picks — available in 35 states!
Spain vs. Argentina Prediction on Total Goals for World Cup Final
Here are the key stats and trends for Spain vs. Argentina before making your World Cup 2026 predictions on PrizePicks.
- Argentina has averaged 2.05 xG per match in this tournament, with Spain posting a 1.91 xG per match.
- Both nations have averaged 16+ shots, along with a double-digit conversion rate.
- Spain averages 5.86 non-penalty shots on target, while Argentina is averaging 6 non-penalty shots on target. Both rank in the top six of all nations.
- Defensively, Spain is allowing the lowest xG per match (0.31) of any nation, with Argentina second at 0.57 xG. However, while Spain has allowed just 0.14 goals per match, Argentina’s allowing a goal per outing and have gone five matches without keeping a clean sheet.
- Argentina have scored just 7 goals in regulation during their four knockout stage matches.
- Spain have kept clean sheets in six of their seven matches, which has kept their match totals lower. There have been a total of 10 goals scored over their last five matches.
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Spain vs. Argentina Lineups for 2026 World Cup Final – Sunday, July 19
Here are the projected Spain vs. Argentina lineups for today's World Cup 2026 match. Lineups are not official and are based on historical data.
Spain Lineup vs. Argentina Today
Projected Formation: 4-2-3-1
- Goalkeeper: Unai Simón
- Defense: Pedro Porro, Pau Cubarsí, Aymeric Laporte, Marc Cucurella
- Midfield: Rodri, Fabián Ruiz, Dani Olmo
- Forwards: Lamine Yamal, Mikel Oyarzabal, Álex Baena
Argentina Lineup vs. Spain Today
Projected Formation: 4-4-2
- Goalkeeper: Emiliano Martinez
- Defense: Nahuel Molina, Lisandro Martínez, Cristian Romero, Nicolás Tagliafico
- Midfield: Rodrigo De Paul, Leandro Paredes, Enzo Fernández, Alexis Mac Allister
- Forwards: Lionel Messi, Julián Alvarez
Spain vs. Argentina Picks, Player Stats for World Cup Final: 7/19/26
Here are the top Spain vs. Argentina player picks to target on PrizePicks for Sunday, July 19. Today’s World Cup 2026 picks are headlined by Lamine Yamal, Lionel Messi, and Álex Baena.
Spain RW Lamine Yamal vs. Argentina: 6 Attempted Dribbles
- Lamine Yamal averaged 7.63 attempted dribbles per 90 minutes over Spain’s first seven matches.
- Over his past five starts, he’s averaged 7.2 dribbles per match, with at least 6 attempted dribbles in four of those five matches. The lone outlier was in the semifinal vs. France.
- When Argentina played Egypt, the left side of their defense struggled. They allowed Egyptian RM Haissem Hassan to attempt 6 dribbles in 73 minutes, with ST Mohamed Salah also attempting 6 from that side.
- Yamal could have a favorable matchup against Argentine LB Nicolás Tagliafico, who is well-experienced but very limited athletically. Additionally, Yamal is unlikely to deal with the double teams he’s often faced, as Messi’s lack of defending means Argentina would be leaving themselves more exposed in other areas defensively.
Combine Spain + Lamine Yamal World Cup picks for bigger payouts on PrizePicks.
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Argentina ST Lionel Messi vs. Spain: 0.5 Passes Attempted (Guarantee Pick)
- Lionel Messi is averaging 45.73 pass attempts per 90 minutes at the World Cup. That ranks him sixth among Argentina’s starters.
- Messi had 96 touches against England and is averaging 76.5 touches per 90 minutes.
- Of Messi’s 315 passes, he’s attempted 186 of them in the final third. His 27 final-third pass attempts per 90 minutes are the 13th-most of any player in the competition.
- PrizePicks is discounting Messi’s passes attempted from 38.5 to 0.5 for today’s Argentina World Cup match. Guarantee Picks lower a player projection to the lowest-possible amount for a limited time, making the More side easier to hit than the original number.
Combine Argentina + Lionel Messi World Cup picks for bigger payouts on PrizePicks.
Spain LW Álex Baena vs. Argentina: 1.5 Shots
- Álex Baena is averaging 2.4 shots per 90 minutes in this tournament, putting 0.87 efforts on target.
- Among Spanish players with at least 300 minutes played, only Yamal and Oyarzabal are attempting more shots per match.
- Spain averages 23% of their shots from the left side. Only nine nations have averaged a higher rate of fire from that wing.
- Argentina’s right-sided defense has struggled against shooting wingers. The most similar player profile belongs to Switzerland LM Dan Ndoye, who had 3 shot attempts against them in 86 minutes.
Combine Spain + Álex Baena World Cup picks for bigger payouts on PrizePicks.
Make Your Spain vs. Argentina Prediction for World Cup Final on PrizePicks
Spain and Argentina have reached the final of World Cup 2026, presenting us with a tremendous matchup between two of the best nations in the world.
Will Lionel Messi continue to defy Father Time and carry Argentina to a second-straight title, or will Lamine Yamal and Spain show they’re the best nation in the world and justify their pre-tournament status as favorites?
Don’t wait until lock. Make your Spain vs. Argentina picks on PrizePicks now and earn real money if you’re right on the World Cup Final.
Pick World Cup players, predict More or Less on their stats, and cash in if you’re right. With Team Picks, you can make predictions on World Cup match winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
Stay locked in on Playbook for daily World Cup 2026 predictions, picks, news, and analysis as the action comes to a close.
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