The Chicago Cubs (4-5) and Tampa Bay Rays (4-5) kick off the MLB slate on Monday, April 6, with first pitch scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET.
Monday’s contest begins a three-game series between the Cubs and Rays, as both teams are currently holding a losing record early in the 2026 MLB season.
Below, we’ll break down our Cubs vs. Rays prediction and picks for Monday’s matchup. Make your MLB picks on PrizePicks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
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Cubs vs. Rays Prediction, Winner Payout, Over/Under
To get the series underway, Cubs’ Jameson Taillon (4.34 xFIP in 2025) and Rays’ Shane McClanahan (3.84 xFIP in 2023) are expected to be the starting pitchers on the mound.
Taillon got a bit lucky in his first start of the 2026 campaign on March 31 against the Los Angeles Angels, allowing just 2 hits and 0 earned runs across 4.2 IP. However, Taillon also issued 4 walks, and his 5.97 xFIP and 5.27 xERA (per FanGraphs) suggest he narrowly avoided disaster.
Injuries have hampered McClanahan in recent years, but he was able to finish with 4 strikeouts, 2 hits, and 2 earned runs allowed in 4.2 IP on March 31 against the Milwaukee Brewers. McClanahan concluded his first outing of the year with a 4.30 xFIP and 3.37 xERA.
Cubs vs. Rays Winner Payout, Over/Under
The Cubs enter Monday’s game as slight road underdogs, returning a 1.88x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Rays are narrow home favorites with a 1.78x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: Cubs -1.5 (2.38x payout)
- Over/Under: 7.5 Runs (1.81x payout on Over)
- Game Winner Payout: Cubs 1.88x | Rays 1.78x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
Cubs vs. Rays Prediction to Win – 4/6/26
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your Cubs vs. Rays prediction on the winner for Monday, April 6, on PrizePicks.
- During the 2025 season, Taillon resided in just the 56th percentile in xERA (3.85), 47th percentile in xBA (.241), and 22nd percentile in strikeout rate (18.9%), per Baseball Savant.
- Although it’s still very early, the Rays have been one of the better hitting teams in MLB to begin the year. Through nine games, Tampa Bay has the eighth-best wRC+ (112), eighth-best wOBA (.333), and second-lowest strikeout rate (18.8%), via FanGraphs.
- Meanwhile, Chicago’s bats have been a bit below average. Across their first nine contests, the Cubs are posting the 19th-best wRC+ (89), 20th-best wOBA (.295), and 12th-highest strikeout rate (24.3%).
- Just a season ago, the Rays were 31-26 outright as home favorites. This is Tampa Bay’s first home game, so the Rays have the crowd behind them.
- Last year, the Cubs notched a 17-22 record as road underdogs, and they just went 1-2 as the visitors in their three-game series against the Cleveland Guardians.
- McClanahan and the other pitchers on Tampa Bay’s roster could benefit from the Rays moving back to Tropicana Field in 2026. Tropicana Field was 28th in park factor from 2022 to 2024.
Cubs vs. Rays Picks for PrizePicks Today: 4/6/26
Here are the top Cubs vs. Rays picks to target for Monday, April 6. Today’s MLB picks for PrizePicks are headlined by Rays 1B Yandy Diaz and Cubs 2B Nico Hoerner.
Rays 1B Yandy Diaz vs. Cubs Projection: 6.5 Hitter Fantasy Score
- According to FanGraphs, Taillon displayed reverse splits in 2025, registering a 4.74 xFIP, 15.2% strikeout rate, and 2.02 HR/9 to right-handed batters. Against left-handed batters, he posted a 3.97 xFIP, 22.5% strikeout rate, and 1.34 HR/9.
- Just last season, Yandy Diaz accrued a solid 129 wRC+ and .356 wOBA when facing right-handed pitchers.
- Diaz is swinging a hot bat early in the 2026 campaign, notching an impressive 224 wRC+, .499 wOBA, and .243 ISO across 43 PAs.
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Cubs 2B Nico Hoerner vs. Rays Projection: 0.5 Hitter Strikeouts
- Nico Hoerner is one of the few hitters on the Cubs who's been solid to start the year, earning at least 1 hit in six of his nine outings.
- Along with Hoerner likely batting leadoff against a southpaw, he earned a 162 wRC+, .401 wOBA, and just a 5.4% strikeout rate against lefties in 2025.
- Per Savant, Hoerner's whiff (87th percentile), strikeout (86th percentile), and chase (65th percentile) rates are all plus marks.
- The good news for Hoerner is that McClanahan could operate on a pitch count early on, and Tampa Bay’s bullpen has the fifth-worst xFIP (5.20) and worst xERA (6.82).
Make Cubs vs. Rays Picks on PrizePicks
The Cubs are looking to get back on track following a series loss to the Guardians. On the other hand, the Rays would love to pick up a win in their first home game of the new season and get this series started on a positive note.
You can make your Cubs vs. Rays picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
Stick around with the Playbook for continued MLB predictions, picks, and news throughout the 2026 season.
