After having four games kick off the round of 16 in the Champions League on Tuesday, there are four more games to keep tabs on for Wednesday. This includes a first-leg matchup between Real Madrid and Man City, which is scheduled to kick off at 4:00 p.m. ET on March 11, live on Paramount+.
Real Madrid and Manchester City are seemingly destined to face each other every year in the UCL, as this will be the fifth consecutive season where they’ve met in the knockout stages. It’s been Madrid that has eliminated Man City the last two seasons, so there’s no shortage of star power and storylines in this matchup.
Below, we’ll discuss our Real Madrid vs. Man City Champions League prediction and picks for Wednesday’s bout at Bernabeu Stadium. Use PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to make selections on players, goal totals, and other stats!
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Real Madrid vs. Man City Prediction, Picks for Wednesday, March 11
While Madrid had to defeat Benfica, 3-1, on aggregate in the knockout round to advance as the No. 9 seed, Man City earned a spot in the round of 16 due to being the No. 8 seed in the league phase. Manchester City also edged out a 2-1 victory over Real Madrid in the league phase.
Amid notable ongoing absences for F Kylian Mbappe, MF Jude Bellingham, and F Rodrygo, Real Madrid are still in second place in the La Liga table (4 points behind Barcelona).
As for Man City, they are second in the Premier League standings, though they are 7 points behind Arsenal at the top.
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Real Madrid vs. Man City Spread, Total Goals, Payouts
Man City enters Wednesday’s match as road favorites, returning a 1.96x payout ($100 entry pays out $196) on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
Real Madrid are home underdogs with a 3.22x ($322 payout on a $100 entry) payout if they secure a victory, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Winner Payout: Man City 1.96x | Tie 3.57x | Real Madrid 3.44x
- Spread: Man City -1.5 (3.44x Payout)
- Total Goals: 2.5 (Over 1.63x)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes 1.56x | No 2.43x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change. Does not include extra time or penalties.
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Real Madrid vs. Man City Prediction on Total Goals
Here are some stats to know to help you make your Real Madrid vs. Man City prediction on total goals for Wednesday, March 11. Check out more of our soccer picks and predictions on Playbook.
- Across Real Madrid’s last six Champions League matches, there have been at least 3 goals scored in five of them.
- On the other side, Man City has had 3 or more goals scored in three of their last five UCL contests.
- Of the five Champions League games for Madrid that have taken place at the Bernabeu, four of them have seen at least 3 goals netted.
- Man City has been the visiting club in four UCL matchups, and there have been 3+ goals posted in three of those.
- Among Champions League teams, Manchester City is fourth in shots on target per match (7.1) and second in accurate passes per match (562.6).
- Although Mbappe is a large reason why, Madrid is eighth in shots on target per match (6.9) and fourth in expected goals (20.8) in the UCL.
- Madrid is also 21st in expected goals conceded (15.1) in the Champions League.
Real Madrid vs. Man City Projected Lineups
Here are the projected Real Madrid vs. Man City lineups for today's Champions League match. Lineups are not official.
Real Madrid Lineup vs. Man City: Projected 4-4-2
- Goalkeeper: Thibaut Courtois
- Defense: Ferland Mendy, Antonio Rudiger, Raul Asencio, Trent Alexander-Arnold
- Midfield: Eduardo Camavinga, Aurelien Tchouameni, Arda Guler, Federico Valverde
- Forwards: Vinicius Junior, Gonzalo Garcia
Man City Lineup vs. Real Madrid: Projected 4-3-3
- Goalkeeper: Gianluigi Donnarumma
- Defense: Rayan Ait Nouri, Marc Guehi, Ruben Dias, Matheus Nunes
- Midfield: Nico O’Reilly, Rodri, Bernardo Silva
- Forwards: Jeremy Doku, Erling Haaland, Antoine Semenyo
Real Madrid vs. Man City Picks for Champions League: Wednesday, March 11
Here are two top Real Madrid vs. Man City picks to target on players for Wednesday, March 11, for PrizePicks. Player stat projections via PrizePicks are headlined by Antoine Semenyo and Thibaut Courtois.
Man City F Antoine Semenyo vs. Real Madrid
Antoine Semenyo Projections via PrizePicks: 0.5 Shots on Target (Goblin), 0.5 Goals (Demon), 0.5 Fouls (Goblin)
- Antoine Semenyo has yet to make his Champions League debut for City, but he’s logged at least 1 shot on target in seven of his eight Premier League starts for Pep Guardiola’s side.
- Over his first 11 starts for Man City in all competitions, Semenyo has contributed a goal in seven of them.
- In his eight starts for Manchester City in the EPL, Semenyo has committed at least 1 foul in seven.
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Real Madrid GK Thibaut Courtois vs. Man City
Thibaut Courtois Projections via PrizePicks: 2.5 Goalie Saves (Goblin), 1.5 Goals Allowed
- Thibaut Courtois has made at least 3 saves in all nine of his UCL starts this season.
- Courtois has registered the fourth-most saves per 90 minutes (5.0) among Champions League GKs.
- The experienced GK has only allowed more than 2 goals twice in his nine UCL starts, though one of those came against Man City.
Make Real Madrid vs. Man City Picks on PrizePicks
The next installment between Real Madrid and Man City in the Champions League begins on Wednesday, and the top-flight club from Spain hopes to remain competitive despite being shorthanded. As for Manchester City, they’d love to get revenge for losses to Madrid lately.
You can make your Real Madrid vs. Man City picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats like shots or goals, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
Stick around with the Playbook for continued Champions League predictions, picks, and analysis until a champion is crowned.
