The SEC has a few marquee matchups in Saturday's Week 9 games, one of which features No. 15 Missouri heading to Nashville to take on No. 10 Vanderbilt at 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
With each team suffering an in-conference loss, the margin of error is slim if these programs want to play in the SEC Championship game. The Missouri vs. Vanderbilt game is essentially an elimination game for the college football playoff.
Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia has put his name into the Heisman conversation with his recent performances, but it will be a tough test against QB Beau Pribula and Missouri. However, the Commodores do get the home advantage, where they just beat LSU, 31-24, last week.
We'll give you our Missouri vs. Vanderbilt prediction, and best picks for PrizePicks college football, including Pavia and Pribula stat projections to target.
Let's get into this massive SEC showdown on Saturday.
Missouri vs. Vanderbilt Preview for Week 9
The Mizzou Tigers have owned this series by winning 12 of 17 games against the Commodores. However, last year was an exciting finish, as Missouri needed two overtimes in Columbia, Mo., to beat Vandy.
This time, the Commodores get home field advantage, and Nashville should be rocking, following the Commodores move into the top 10 in the AP Top 25 rankings.
Here’s a closer look at our Missouri vs. Vanderbilt prediction and breakdown for Saturday’s top-25 SEC matchup.
Vanderbilt Preview vs. Missouri
- The Commodores have a long history of mediocrity, winning more than six wins only five times since 1976, but this program might be turning it around.
- The Commodores come into this game ranked No. 10 in the AP Poll, their highest since 1947.
- This has been propelled by Pavia, who is putting together a Heisman-contending season. He’s come into Week 9 leading the SEC with a 70.5% completion rate and is second with a 165.2 quarterback rating.
- Pavia has helped Vandy become one of the most explosive offenses in the country as they lead the SEC and are fourth in points per game (40.8).
- Vanderbilt can put up points, so its defense doesn't have to be perfect. The defense has allowed 30 or more points in two of its last three games.
Missouri Preview vs. Vanderbilt
- The Tigers’ 6-1 record looks pleasing to the naked eye, but they’ve had an easy start to the year.
- PFF ranks their strength of schedule 83rd.
- All six of Mizzou's wins were against unranked opponents, and its one loss was to then-No. 8 Alabama.
- Mizzou could be a formidable offensive opponent as it’s 16th in points per game (35.3).
- RB Ahmad Hardy’s performances have drastically dipped since rushing for 100 yards in five straight, as he’s failed to reach 60 in the last two.
- QB Beau Pribula has played well with either a passing or rushing TD in each game this season, and with a win, he could make headlines.
- Missouri's defense has struggled against formidable opposition, allowing 20 or more points in three of its four games against Power Four opponents.
Missouri vs. Vanderbilt Picks for PrizePicks
Here are the Missouri vs. Vanderbilt picks to target in PrizePicks' real-money college football game, including Diego Pavia and Beau Pribula.
Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia Projection: 267.5 Pass+Rush Yards
- Diego Pavia has more than 267 pass+rush yards in two of his last four games.
- The New Mexico transfer is one of four quarterbacks in the country who have 1,500+ passing yards and 430+ rushing yards, and is one of eight to lead his team in passing and rushing yards.
- After not allowing 300 total yards in their first five games, Missouri is averaging 341 total yards allowed over the last two.
- Mizzou ranks 11th in the SEC in passing yards allowed per game to conference opponents (251.0).
- The senior’s 70.3% completion rate is his career best.
- The Tigers are allowing the third-highest completion percentage to conference opponents (69.4%).
Missouri QB Beau Pribula Projection: 217.5 Passing Yards
- Beau Pribula has more than 217 passing yards in two of his last three games.
- In each game where Pribula has thrown for more than 200 yards, it has been against an opponent that is outside of the top 55 in passing yards allowed per game.
- Vanderbilt is 91st in passing yards allowed per game (245.5).
- The Tigers are 33rd in pass EPA (0.19)
- Vanderbilt ranks 113th in opponents' pass EPA (0.16).
- Mizzou’s 50.6% pass success rate ranks 12th.
- Vandy is allowing a 43.3% pass success rate (86th).
Missouri RB Ahmad Hardy Projection: 88.5 Rushing Yards
- After Week 5, Ahmad Hardy led the nation with 730 rushing yards.
- After rushing for 110 total yards in two games against Alabama and Auburn, he now ranks third.
- Prior to his last two games, Hardy had not faced an opponent inside the top 60 in rush EPA.
- Vanderbilt will be Hardy’s third straight opponent ranked within the top 30 in rush EPA. They are ranked 28th (0.052).
- The Commodores are sixth in the SEC in rushing yards allowed per game to conference opponents (92.1).
- In Week 8 against Auburn, who is 34th in yards after contact allowed (2.5), the Louisiana-Monroe transfer averaged 2.6 yards YAC.
- Vanderbilt is ranked 15th in yards after contact allowed (2.3).
Make Missouri vs. Vanderbilt Predictions on PrizePicks
With Vanderbilt and Missouri each having a conference loss, there’s a tiny margin for error in a tough SEC conference. The bottom line: this is a must win for both teams to stay in contention for the College Football Playoff.
Diego Pavia is leading Vandy to one of its best seasons in program history, and after beating LSU last week, he gets another challenge against Mizzou.
This Saturday’s ranked SEC matchup is a perfect spot to make CFB picks on PrizePicks to win real money.
Just pick your players, predict More or Less on their weekly stat projections, and cash in if your picks are correct.
Check out the Playbook throughout the remainder of the CFB season for more analysis for your PrizePicks and CFB DFS Lineups.
