Today’s eight-game schedule for the second round of the NCAA Tournament features only two games with point spreads under five points. The No. 6 Louisville Cardinals (24-10) vs. the No. 3 Michigan State Spartans (26-7) tabs Michigan State as a 3.5-point favorite, per PrizePicks Team Picks.
What can we expect for today’s 2:45 p.m. ET tip-off on CBS?
Let’s make a Louisville vs. Michigan State prediction on the spread for Saturday, March 21’s college basketball projections on PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
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Louisville vs. Michigan State Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Louisville controlled most of its first-round matchup vs. No. 11 South Florida, leading by as many as 20 points in the second half. USF managed to cut the deficit by forcing 20 turnovers in the 83-79 final.
Michigan State was utterly dominant in its 92-67 win as 16.5-point favorites vs. North Dakota State, advancing in the NCAA Tournament bracket.
Over six head-to-head matchups since 2009, the Spartans are 4-2 and 3-3 against the spread (ATS) vs. the Cardinals. High-scoring games have been trendy, with the over hitting in four consecutive meetings.
This over trend continues with MSU’s 8-2 mark over its last 10 games. Louisville is only 4-6 ATS, while Michigan State holds a 6-4 ATS record for the past 10 contests.
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Louisville vs. Michigan State Spread, Over/Under
Michigan State is favored by 3.5 points with a 1.47x payout if it wins, per PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
According to PrizePicks Team Picks, Louisville carries a 2.7x payout with an outright win today.
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans -3.5
- Over/Under: 151.5
- Gamer Winner Payout: Louisville 2.7x | Michigan State 1.47x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
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Louisville vs. Michigan State Prediction on Spread for NCAA Tournament – 3/21/26
The Cardinals’ offense was productive with 83 points while cashing in 13-of-25 3-point shots (52.0%) in the first round. However, Louisville G Mikel Brown Jr. (back) will miss his sixth consecutive game, and his 18.2 PPG ranks second on the team.
While Brown’s 7.6 3-point attempts per game are out of the rotation, the Cards still post 32.1 shots from deep per matchup (99th percentile). Michigan State, meanwhile, surrenders 26.1 attempted triples per game (12th percentile) and a 45.9% 3-point shot distribution (sixth percentile), per Bart Torvik.
UofL sports a 56.7% effective field goal percentage (96th percentile), while allowing a 48.5% mark on defense (86th percentile). For context, Michigan State carries a 54.0% effective field goal percentage (81st percentile) and cedes 48.6% on the other end of the floor (85th percentile).
The Cardinals could have the scoring advantage on Saturday, but the Spartans are elite on the glass with a 36.6% offensive rebounding rate (93rd percentile) and 80.2% defensive rebounding rate (100th percentile).
Backed by a 31.7% offensive rebounding percentage (78th percentile) and 74.9% defensive rebounding rate (88th percentile), Louisville could have enough to fend off MSU’s elite board numbers.
Make Louisville vs. Michigan State Picks on PrizePicks
Louisville lacks a major talent in Mikel Brown Jr., who currently ranks seventh on the consensus 2026 NBA Draft Big Board. However, the Cardinals still carry a potential advantage from 3-point land.
If UofL stays hot from deep and hangs with Michigan State on the glass, will we see our first upset in Saturday’s college basketball picks?
Make your Louisville vs. Michigan State picks and NCAA Tournament predictions at PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn real-money rewards for your predictions if you’re right.
Just choose players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and follow the hoops action to see if your picks hit. You can make picks on winners, spreads, and over/unders on Team Picks, now available in 35 states.
Keep tabs on the Playbook for continued college basketball predictions, picks, and news all the way through the NCAA Tournament.
