Only four double-digit seeds won in the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament — the lowest mark since 2007. Every favorite won in Friday’s slate, meaning all four double-digit seeds will be in action on Saturday, March 21.
The No. 11 VCU Rams (28-7) are one of the only potential Cinderella stories alive, as they face the No. 3 Illinois Fighting Illini (25-8) as a 10.5-point underdog for today’s 7:50 p.m. ET tip-off on CBS.
Below, we’ll make a VCU vs. Illinois prediction on the spread for college basketball projections on PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
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VCU vs. Illinois Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
VCU roared back from a 19-point deficit, defeating No. 6 North Carolina, 82-78, in overtime of its first-round battle. The Rams are now 9-1 and 7-3 against the spread (ATS) over the last 10 games.
In a 105-70 win vs. No. 14 Penn in the first round, Illinois covered a lofty 25.5-point spread. But the Fighting Illini are still just 2-4 ATS in their last six contests.
Saturday will mark the second all-time meeting between these programs, with Illinois winning 64-46 as six-point underdogs in the 2016-17 season.
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VCU vs. Illinois Spread, Over/Under
Illinois is favored by 10.5 points with a 1.16x payout if it wins, per PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
According to PrizePicks Team Picks, VCU is a notable underdog with a 5.26x payout for an outright win today.
- Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini -10.5
- Over/Under: 149.5
- Gamer Winner Payout: VCU 5.26x | Illinois 1.16x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
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VCU vs. Illinois Prediction on Spread for NCAA Tournament – 3/21/26
VCU’s 3-point shooting played a major role in Thursday’s comeback win, draining 11-of-26 triples (42.3%). That’s in line with the Rams shooting 36.9% from deep (92nd percentile), paired with 9.4 made treys per game (85th percentile).
Illinois’ perimeter defense has been a flaw by allowing 26.8 3-point shots per game (eighth percentile) and a 42.3% shot distribution from deep (24th percentile), per Bart Torvik.
VCU G Terrence Hill Jr. (14.9 PPG) comes off a monster 34-point showing, and Illinois G Kylan Boswell (1.68) and G Keaton Wagler (2.09) have some of the starting lineup’s weakest Defensive Bayesian Performance Ratings (DBPR), via EvanMiya. PrizePicks projects Hill for 16.5 points tonight.
The Fighting Illini’s 31.6 shots per game (98th percentile) can match VCU’s looks from beyond the arc. However, the Rams feature a solid perimeter defense, yielding only 20.7 attempted triples per contest (80th percentile).
Illinois excels at gathering extra possessions, boasting a 38.9% offensive rebounding percentage (99th percentile). VCU could limit one of Illinois’ strengths once again, proven by its 23.9 defensive boards per game (81st percentile).
Make VCU vs. Illinois Picks on PrizePicks
VCU is one of the underdogs drawing attention for Saturday’s college basketball picks. The Rams may carry a legitimate advantage from 3-point land, but will that be enough to propel an upset over No. 3 Illinois?
Make your VCU vs. Illinois picks and NCAA Tournament predictions on PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn real-money rewards for your predictions if you’re right.
You can make NCAA Tournament picks on winners, spreads, and over/unders on Team Picks, now available in 35 states.
Keep tabs on the Playbook for continued college basketball predictions, picks, and news all the way through the NCAA Tournament.
