The Derby della Madonnina is one of the most unique derbies in soccer with two iconic clubs sharing a stadium. When Inter and Milan face off on Sunday, kicking off at 3:45 p.m. ET on Paramount+, there is more than San Siro bragging rights at stake.
Inter (22-1-4) are atop the Serie A table with 67 points. Milan (16-9-2) sits 10 points adrift, and anything but a victory for the Rossoneri could see the Nerazzurri putting one hand firmly on the Scudetto.
Below, we’ll break down our Milan vs. Inter prediction and picks for Sunday afternoon's game. Make your picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
{{core_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Milan vs. Inter Prediction, Picks for Sunday, March 8
Milan are the designated home side, which means they’ll have 75% of the stadium decked in black and red. The Rossoneri must find a way to stop dropping points if they’re to celebrate with the Curva Sud come full time.
Only two clubs have taken victory over Milan this season, but the Rossoneri sit 10 points adrift of Inter because of nine draws. It easily could’ve been 10 had they not gotten two very late goals last time out at Cremonese.
⚽️ More Soccer Predictions and Picks for Today’s Biggest Matches
Christian Pulisic’s early-season form was derailed by injury. While he’s now back helping lead the Milan attack, they’re still without ST Santiago Gimenez. That’s in addition to MF Ruben Loftus-Cheek and CB Matteo Gabbia as well.
Despite that, the Rossoneri have defended quite well. Mike Maignan is among the best GK in all of Europe in regards to goals allowed below expected, with just 20 conceded vs. 29.2 expected. And per Opta’s stats, Milan leads Serie A in winning ground duels while ranking fifth in aerial duel success rate.
While Inter only have one player absent, it’s a big miss via ST Lautaro Martinez. The Argentine leads Inter and Serie A with 14 goals scored and has a history of showing up in this fixture.
Federico Dimarco is in stellar form. He’s become the second defender in Serie A history with 20 goal involvements, and 10 of those have come in his last six matches. He’s also created the most big chances of any player in Europe during league play.
And no club in Serie A is overperforming in front of goal more than Inter. They’ve scored 64 goals from just 56.46 xG according to Opta, while leading the league in shots, shots on target, and conversion rate.
Inter have built their lead on the back of an eight-match win streak and a run of 15 matches unbeaten. In fact, they’ve not lost a match since Nov. 23, 202, when they fell 1-0 to Milan in the reverse fixture.
If the Nerazzurri can end a six-match winless run against their city rivals, they’ll establish what may be an insurmountable lead in the race for the Scudetto.
Inter are runaway favorites at this point to lift the Scudetto. Entering the match on Sunday, Inter are returning a 1.01x payout ($100 entry returns $101) on PrizePicks Team Picks to finish atop the Serie A table.
Milan are returning a 7.14 payout ($714 on a $100 entry) to come back and claim the title.
Milan vs. Inter Spread, Total Goals, Payouts
Milan enters Sunday’s game as home underdogs, returning a 3.22x payout ($100 entry pays out $322) on PrizePicks Team Picks if the Rossoneri win outright.
Inter are road favorites with a 2.27x ($227 payout on a $100 entry) payout if the Nerazzurri win, via PrizePicks Team Picks.
- Winner Payout: Milan 3.22x | Tie 3.12x | Inter 2.27x
- Spread: Inter -1.5 (4.54x Payout)
- Total Goals: 2.5 (Over 2.08x)
- Both Teams to Score: Yes 1.75x | No 2.08x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
⚽️ Tap in for more Soccer Picks and Predictions HERE!
Milan vs. Inter Prediction on Total Goals
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your Milan vs. Inter prediction on total goals for Sunday, March 8, on PrizePicks.
- Fewer than 3 goals have been scored in eight of Milan’s last 11 matches in all competitions.
- Five of Inter’s last seven Serie A matches have seen fewer than 3 goals scored.
- Milan GK Mike Maignan is second in the five big European leagues in goals allowed below expected goals on target, with 20 goals conceded from 29.2 xGOT.
- Only Roma have conceded fewer goals this season in Serie A than the two Milan clubs, with Inter conceding 21 and Milan allowing 20.
- There have been fewer than 3 goals scored in three of the last four meetings between these sides.
- Milan leads Serie A with an 81.8% save rate, per FBRef.
- Inter allows the fewest shots on target with just 2.70 per match, while Milan allows just 3.41 per match, which ranks them fourth in Serie A.
Milan vs. Inter Projected Lineups
Here are the projected Milan vs. Inter lineups for today's Serie A match. Lineups are not official.
Milan Lineup vs. Inter: Projected 3-5-2
- Goalkeeper: Mike Maignan
- Defense: Fikayo Tomori, Koni De Winter, Strahinja Pavlovic
- Midfield: Alexis Saelemaekers, Youssouf Fofana, Luka Modric, Adrien Rabiot, Pervis Estupinan
- Forwards: Rafael Leao, Christian Pulisic
Inter Lineup vs. Milan: Projected 3-5-2
- Goalkeeper: Yann Sommer
- Defense: Yann Aurel Bisseck, Manuel Akanji, Alessandro Bastoni
- Midfield: Luis Henrique, Nicolo Barella, Hakan Calhanoglu, Piotr Zielinski, Federico Dimarco
- Forwards: Francesco Pio Esposito, Marcus Thuram
Milan vs. Inter Picks for Serie A: Sunday, March 8
Here are two top Milan vs. Inter picks to target on players for Sunday, March 8 for PrizePicks. Player stat projections via PrizePicks are headlined by Christian Pulisic and Federico Dimarco.
Christian Pulisic vs. Inter: 0.5 Shots On Target
- Christian Pulisic averages 1.90 shots on target per 90 minutes in Serie A this season.
- The American ranks in the 97th percentile per FotMob of all Serie A attackers in shots on target per 90 minutes.
- Captain America has put an effort on goal in each of his last six league starts, with a total of 10 accurate strikes from 21 shots in that span.
- Pulisic scored in Milan’s 1-0 victory over Inter on Nov. 23, 2025.
{{core_offer_banner="/style-system/ui-components-playbook"}}
Federico Dimarco vs. Milan: 9.5 Crosses
- Federico Dimarco has 13+ crosses in his last four matches and in five of his last six starts.
- The Italian WB averages 14.33 crosses over his last six matches in all competitions.
- Dimarco registered 11 crosses in the reverse fixture on Nov. 23, 2025.
- His 225 crosses in Serie A play lead the league, having attempted 46 more than any other player.
- Dimarco holds a primary corner kick role for an Inter side that leads Serie A with 6.96 corners per match according to SoccerStats.
Make Milan vs. Inter Picks on PrizePicks
Passion and emotions run high in the Derby della Madonnina, both in the stands and on the pitch. Milan must find a way to navigate that and the stiff Inter defense to claim a vital three points, lest they see their bitter rivals claim another Scudetto.
You can make your Milan vs. Inter Serie A picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats like shots or goals, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 34 states.
Stick around with the Playbook for continued Serie A predictions, picks, and analysis until a champion is crowned.
