And then there were 32. The NCAA Tournament’s 64-team field was slashed in half during Thursday and Friday’s first-round games. Saturday, March 21, features eight games and 16 squads looking to advance to the regional semifinals.
The No. 11 Texas Longhorns (20-14) vs. the No. 3 Gonzaga Bulldogs (31-3) could be one of the most competitive matchups of today, with PrizePicks Team Picks listing Gonzaga as a 5.5-point favorite for the spread. The 3-11 bout tips off on Saturday, March 21, at 7:10 p.m. ET tip-off on truTV and TBS.
Below, we’ll make a Texas vs. Gonzaga prediction on the spread for college basketball projections on PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
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Texas vs. Gonzaga Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
Following a 1-4 stretch before the NCAA Tournament, Texas has now won back-to-back games, including a 68-66 win vs. No. 11 NC State in the play-in and a 79-71 dub vs. No. 6 BYU in the first round.
Gonzaga touts a 9-1 record in its last 10 games, but it’s just 1-3 against the spread (ATS) over the past four matchups. This includes Thursday’s 73-64 first-round win vs. No. 14 Kennesaw State as 19.5-point favorites.
The Bulldogs are 3-1 outright and ATS in the last four matchups with the Longhorns. However, Texas won the most recent matchup by 19 points as two-point favorites in the 2022-23 season.
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Texas vs. Gonzaga Spread, Over/Under
Gonzaga is favored by 5.5 points with a 1.36x payout if it wins, per PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
According to PrizePicks Team Picks, Texas carries a 3.03x payout for an outright win today.
- Spread: Gonzaga Bulldogs -5.5
- Over/Under: 147.5
- Gamer Winner Payout: Texas 3.03x | Gonzaga 1.36x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
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Texas vs. Gonzaga Prediction on Spread for NCAA Tournament – 3/21/26
According to Bart Torvik, Texas ranks 42nd in efficiency, while Gonzaga is 15th. However, a hot team out of the play-in can be one of the most dangerous sights in the NCAA Tournament.
The Longhorns have elevated their play by controlling the rebounding battle by +10.5 boards per game in the NCAA Tournament. That’s paired with a dominant 15.5 offensive rebounds per contest in their last two games.
However, Gonzaga is elite on the glass with a 34.4% offensive rebounding rate (93rd percentile) and a 76.1% defensive rebounding rate (94th percentile). Texas records 10.5 offensive boards per game (86th percentile), suggesting regression could come for its 15.5 postseason per-game average.
The Bulldogs sport a 55.8% effective field goal percentage (93rd percentile), compared to the Longhorns’ 53.8% (79th percentile). If Texas takes a step back on the glass, efficiency could become a fatal flaw.
Furthermore, the Zags shoot 58.4% on 2-pointers (95th percentile), led by Gonzaga F Graham Ike’s 19.7 PPG and 56.9% field goal percentage. The Longhorns rank in the 47th percentile of close-2 shot distribution allowed, and Texas C Matas Vokietaitis (1.68) and F Camden Heide (-0.06) carry concerning Defensive Bayesian Performance Ratings (DBPR), per EvanMiya.
Ike, who is projected for 21 points on Saturday by PrizePicks, and the Bulldogs frontcourt could cause trouble for Texas.
Make Texas vs. Gonzaga Picks on PrizePicks
After dominating the glass over two tournament wins, Texas faces a strong Gonzaga frontcourt for Saturday’s college basketball picks. Will the Longhorns continue to produce on the glass, or will Ike & Co. be too much?
Make your Texas vs. Gonzaga picks and NCAA Tournament predictions on PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn real-money rewards for your predictions if you’re right.
You can make NCAA Tournament picks on winners, spreads, and over/unders on Team Picks, now available in 35 states.
Keep tabs on the Playbook for continued college basketball predictions, picks, and news all the way through the NCAA Tournament.
