No. 9 seed TCU was able to outlast No. 8 seed Ohio State in the first round of the 2026 NCAA Tournament on Thursday with a heart-pounding 66-64 win. Now, TCU takes on the East region’s top seed, Duke, on Saturday. Tip-off is set for 5:15 p.m. ET on CBS, with the Blue Devils listed as 10.5-point favorites.
Below, we’ll dive into what the Horned Frogs may have to do to upset the top-seeded Blue Devils. Entering the NCAA Tournament, Duke was the favorite to win the National Championship with a 4x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks.
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TCU vs. Duke: Three Keys to Horned Frogs Pulling Off Upset
Without further ado, let's jump into three keys TCU may need to tap into for a Saturday upset over Duke.
Attack the Interior
There was a common theme throughout TCU’s opening-round victory against Ohio State: success scoring in the paint. The Horned Frogs might need much more of that against Duke.
Leading scorer David Punch poured in 16 points on 6-of-12 shooting and also secured a game-high 13 rebounds. Meanwhile, teammate Xavier Edmonds also thrived to the tune of a 16-point performance on 6-of-12 shooting while pulling down 8 boards.
In fact, the two combined to help secure the win for the Horned Frogs in the final seconds. Punch delivered a bounce pass to Edmonds in the low post, and Edmonds was able to get his shot to go with just 4.1 seconds left on the clock.
When it comes to Duke, TCU could benefit from the fact that the Blue Devils may be without 6’11 C Patrick Ngongba II. Ngongba is dealing with a foot injury, but Duke head coach Jon Scheyer admitted that there’s a chance that he could play on Saturday.
Even if Ngongba plays, it’s unclear if he’d be on a minutes restriction or how effective he’d be. After all, the sophomore big man hasn’t played since March 2.
Either way, TCU must feed the ball inside at a very frequent rate. The Horned Frogs did register 24 points in the paint against Ohio State. Additionally, the Blue Devils surrendered 30 such points to Siena in their narrow first-round win.
Simply put, Punch and Edmonds would be wise to keep being aggressive down low and shoulder a large amount of the scoring load.
Shoot Well From the Perimeter
TCU was fairly successful from beyond the arc against Ohio State, shooting 39% (9-of-23) from that range. The Horned Frogs had four different players connect on shots from deep.
F Micah Robinson excelled from 3-point land, as he splashed home four of his six attempts. However, Robinson was just a 33.3% 3-point shooter throughout the regular season.
Edmonds also knocked down two of his three shots from long range, while G Brock Harding went 2-of-6 from deep on the afternoon.
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It was a productive perimeter performance, but that wasn’t something that TCU is used to seeing with regularity. In fact, the Horned Frogs have shot just 33.1% on treys as a team in 2025-26, ranking second-to-last in the Big 12.
Players like Harding and Robinson certainly weren’t afraid to let the ball fly against the Buckeyes. Such fearlessness is something the Horned Frogs could need more of when facing a juggernaut like the Blue Devils.
Duke holds its opponents to just a 30.6% shooting clip from beyond the arc. Siena did have some success against them out of the gate, however, as the Saints went 5-of-11 on 3-point attempts in the opening 20 minutes.
With that said, Siena ultimately shot 35.0% (9-of-26) once the dust settled.
Suffocate Star F Cameron Boozer
If basketball fans look at the point totals from Duke’s first-round win, it would appear that star freshman F Cameron Boozer had a polarizing offensive performance. However, that wasn’t exactly the case when diving a little further.
Boozer finished with 22 points but was just 4-of-11 from the field against Siena. The projected high 2026 NBA Draft pick connected on 13 of his 14 attempts from the free throw line. Boozer also missed four of his five shots from deep in the game.
Boozer did tally 13 rebounds, proving that he can still make a huge impact even if his shot isn’t falling.
In his last two games against Siena and Virginia in the ACC Tournament Final, Boozer shot just 25.0% (7-of-28) overall while going just 2-of-10 (20.0%) on 3s.
Obviously, Boozer is the level of player who can have a spectacular performance at a moment’s notice. With that in mind, TCU must do everything in its power to limit his effectiveness, especially on the offensive end.
The likes of Edmonds and Punch could be tasked with slowing down Boozer if he gets the ball down low. Punch has been a shot-blocking savant, leading TCU in blocks per game (2.0) while also ranking third in the Big 12.
As a team, TCU has been a solid defensive unit at times. According to Bart Torvik, the Horned Frogs are 27th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency (99.3).
Over the last two games, teams have tried to play suffocating defense on Boozer, forcing him to give the ball up at times or take ill-advised shots. Perhaps the Horned Frogs should do their best to make the likes of G-F Isaiah Evans and G Cayden Boozer — Cameron's twin brother — beat them.
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Can TCU continue its NCAA Tournament run with an improbable upset over No. 1 seed Duke in the Round of 32? The two teams will battle it out on Saturday to find out who will advance.
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