The No. 6 Louisville Cardinals (24-10) are set to take on the No. 3 Michigan State Spartans (26-7) in an intriguing matchup in the East region of the bracket of the NCAA Tournament on Saturday, March 21. Tip-off is scheduled for 2:45 p.m. ET, live on CBS.
Ahead of the first possession of the game, the Spartans are a 3.5-point favorite, per PrizePicks Team Picks. Can Tom Izzo’s Michigan State squad make another deep run in the tourney?
Below, we’ll break down our Louisville vs. Michigan State prediction and picks for Saturday’s game. Make your college basketball picks on PrizePicks and earn real money if you’re right, including on game winners, spreads, and totals!
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Louisville vs. Michigan State Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
After Louisville jumped out to a 37-27 lead in the first half against No. 11 South Florida in their first matchup of the tournament, they escaped with an 83-79 victory to advance.
The Cardinals have now won four of their last five games, but they could still be without star freshman G Mikel Brown Jr. (18.2 PPG, 4.7 APG).
Brown was inactive for Louisville’s win over South Florida, and the school did announce he’d be sidelined for the first week of the NCAA Tournament.
As for Michigan State, they cruised to a 92-67 victory against No. 14 North Dakota State despite standout G Jeremy Fears Jr. supplying only 7 points in 33 minutes. The Spartans are 6-2 outright and 5-3 against the spread (ATS) in their last eight contests.
Louisville vs. Michigan State Spread, Over/Under
Michigan State enters Saturday’s game as 3.5-point favorites, returning a 1.51x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if it wins outright.
Louisville is a slight underdog with a 2.56x payout if it wins, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: Michigan State Spartans -3.5 (1.72x payout)
- Over/Under: 151.5 (1.96x payout on over)
- Game Winner Payout: Louisville 2.56x | Michigan State 1.51x
Team Picks data is live at the time of writing and is subject to change.
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Louisville vs. Michigan State Prediction on Spread – 3/21/26
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your Louisville vs. Michigan State prediction on the spread for Saturday, March 21, on PrizePicks.
- On the season, Michigan State is 4-2 ATS in neutral-site games.
- Mikel Brown Jr. has missed 13 games for the Cardinals, and Louisville has gone 6-7 ATS in those contests.
- Michigan State is 5-2-1 ATS when taking on ranked opponents. On the other hand, the Cardinals are 3-6 ATS against ranked foes.
- Louisville concluded the regular season as the No. 23-ranked team in the AP Top 25 Poll.
- The Spartans dominate the glass, ranking ninth in offensive rebound rate (38.0%) and first in rebound rate allowed (22.1%).
- In its win over North Dakota State, Michigan State won the rebounding battle 34-19.
Louisville vs. Michigan State Picks for PrizePicks Today: 3/21/26
Here are a pair of Louisville vs. Michigan State picks to target for Saturday, March 21, on PrizePicks. Today’s college basketball picks for PrizePicks are headlined by Michigan State F Jaxon Kohler and Louisville G Ryan Conwell.
Michigan State F Jaxon Kohler vs. Louisville Projection: 20.5 Pts + Rebs
- Kohler averages 12.6 PPG and 9.0 RPG on the season.
- Over his last five starts, Kohler has at least 21 combined points and rebounds in four of them.
- In 20 games in which Kohler logged 27-plus minutes, he's had 21 or more points and rebounds a whopping 17 times.
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Louisville G Ryan Conwell vs. Michigan State Projection: 23.5 Pts + Asts
- Conwell has notched at least 24 points and assists in five of his last seven starts.
- Across his last seven outings, Conwell has scored 22+ points in four of them.
- In the five games without Brown since February 28, Conwell has gone for 24 or more combined points and assists thrice.
Make Louisville vs. Michigan State Picks on PrizePicks
After a close call in their opening matchup, Louisville aims to send Michigan State packing on Saturday. Meanwhile, the Spartans are hoping to advance to at least the Round of 16 for the third time in the last four seasons.
You can make your Louisville vs. Michigan State picks on PrizePicks and PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. Just pick players, predict More or Less on their projected stats, and cash in if you’re correct. With Team Picks, make predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
Stick around with the Playbook for continued college basketball predictions, picks, and news through the NCAA Tournament.
