The second round of the Men’s NCAA Tournament is upon us. Continuing their dreams of the national semifinals in Indianapolis, the No. 9 TCU Horned Frogs (23-11) take on the No. 1 Duke Blue Devils (33-2) on Saturday, March 21, at 5:15 p.m. ET on CBS.
As 10.5-point favorites on PrizePicks Team Picks, the Blue Devils are a clear favorite to advance to the regional semifinals. Can TCU deliver another scare to Duke, similar to what No. 16 Siena accomplished in the first round?
Who will have an advantage for Saturday’s matchup in our TCU vs. Duke prediction on the spread? Use PrizePicks Team Picks to make NCAA Tournament predictions on game winners, spreads, over/unders, and more.
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TCU vs. Duke Prediction, Spread, Over/Under
The TCU Horned Frogs could be flying under the radar for most college basketball fans. They were overshadowed by Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, and Texas Tech in a loaded Big 12. However, TCU more than held its own in conference play, going 11-7 while beating quality opponents in Florida, Wisconsin, Iowa State, and Texas Tech this season.
In the first round, the Horned Frogs held a 15-point lead over Ohio State but almost squandered it before eventually winning the game on F Xavier Edmonds' layup with four seconds on the clock.
TCU is a balanced squad with four players averaging over 10 points per game (PPG), and it will likely need everything in the tank if it hopes to pull off an upset vs. one of the nation's best.
Despite winning the ACC Tournament and advancing in the first round, Duke hasn't generated much confidence of late. The Blue Devils found themselves trailing by double digits in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals before squeaking out a one-point victory vs. Florida State. Plus, they barely got by Virginia in the ACC finals with a four-point win.
Duke trailed by 11 points at halftime vs. No. 16 seed Siena in the first round of the NCAA Men’s Tournament — a game in which the Blue Devils were 28.5-point favorites and only won by six points. Needless to say, if Duke still has hopes of a deep postseason run, it likely needs stronger starts.
TCU vs. Duke Spread, Over/Under
The Blue Devils enter Saturday’s game as 10.5-point favorites, returning a 1.12x payout on PrizePicks Team Picks if they win outright.
The Horned Frogs are sizable underdogs with a 6.25x payout if they win, via PrizePicks Team Picks, where you can earn money with your picks in 35 states.
- Spread: Duke Blue Devils -10.5 (1.69x payout)
- Over/Under: 139.5 (1.88x payout on over)
- Game Winner Payout: TCU 6.25x | Duke 1.12x
Team Picks data is live as of writing and is subject to change.
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TCU vs. Duke Prediction on Spread for NCAA Tournament – 3/21/26
Here are the key stats to know before locking in your TCU vs. Duke prediction on the spread for college basketball picks on Saturday, March 21.
- Despite playing in a loaded Big 12 Conference, TCU is still an impressive 19-15-0 (55.9%) against the spread (ATS).
- The Horned Frogs can likely match Duke’s defensive tenacity (first with an 89.7 defensive rating), as TCU ranks 21st in defensive rating (97.4), according to KenPom.
- Taking care of the rock could be a slight advantage for the Horned Frogs, proven by their 15.4% turnover percentage, compared to the Blue Devils' 15.6%.
- Defensively, TCU forces turnovers at a 19.4% clip (35th), ranking significantly higher than Duke’s 17.9%.
- Despite a 5-0 outright record over the last five games, Duke is 1-4 ATS in the split, with the lone cover coming by just half a point vs. Clemson on March 13.
Make TCU vs. Duke Picks on PrizePicks
Duke looks vulnerable despite their dominant record and elite talent. Will TCU pull off the upset and etch their name into the NCAA Tournament bracket's regional semifinals?
You can make your TCU vs. Duke picks on PrizePicks Team Picks to earn real money. With Team Picks, make NCAA Tournament predictions on winners, spreads, and over/unders, now available in 35 states.
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