In UFC Vegas 116’s main event, former bantamweight champion Aljamain Sterling (25-5-0) will aim to defend his top-five ranking in the featherweight division against fast-rising contender Youssef Zalal (18-5-1).
Below, we'll give you our prediction for Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal in the UFC Fight Night main event, including method of victory projections and a PrizePicks UFC pick.
The five-round Sterling vs. Zalal fight is expected to start around 11:00 p.m. EST from Las Vegas, live on Paramount+, depending on when the other main card fights end.
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Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal Prediction, Payouts for UFC Vegas 116 Main Event
Below are the payouts for who will win the Sterling vs. Zalal fight via PrizePicks Team Picks. You can win real money with your fight prediction on PrizePicks if you're right. For example, a 2x means that the result will payout $200 on a $100 entry.
Aljamain Sterling: 2.08x ($100 pays $208)
Youssef Zalal: 1.69x ($100 pays $169)
Team Picks payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.
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Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal Prediction, Preview for UFC Fight Night
Despite the same level of championship experience, Youssef Zalal is a slight favorite to win Saturday’s main event, according to user picks on PrizePicks.
He’s riding a five-fight winning streak since returning for a second stint in UFC after having had to face the likes of Ilia Topuria, Sean Woodson, and other high-level fighters in his early-to-mid 20s.
Zalal’s biggest win to enter the rankings was a quick tap of Josh Emmett in his last bout:
That marked a third time in Emmett, 40, was stopped in his last six fights, so it’s still a bit uncertain how Zalal’s slick grappling (1.4 submission attempts per 15 minutes) will translate to a higher level of competition.
Zalal has made the most strides at distance, boasting a +1.25 striking success rate (SSR) — which measures significant strikes landed minus absorbed per minute. Dusting Calvin Katter, 38, with his speed and footwork despite not landing a single takedown probably wouldn’t have happened in his first UFC tenure.
Meanwhile, Sterling’s foray to featherweight — vacating his old division to avoid fighting friend and teammate Merab Dvalishvili — has largely been successful. He’s 2-1 with wins over Kattar and Brian Ortega, and the close decision loss to Movsar Evloev (10-0 UFC) hasn’t aged poorly.
In his bantamweight run to the title, Sterling’s elite grappling skills carried him past Petr Yan. He averages 2.45 takedowns and 0.6 submission attempts per 15 minutes, but I don’t think “Funkmaster” gets enough credit for his standup.
His +2.24 SSR isn’t far off champion Alexander Volkanovski’s (+2.68) despite Sterling fighting at a championship level since 2020.
Like Zalal, Sterling’s highlights often come from back control:
In his own words, Sterling states, “when I get the back back, it’s a wrap wrap.”
This matchup of similar skill sets might mean the Sterling vs. Zalal fight is won by the slimmest of margins. Zalal is the younger fighter with less attrition, but Sterling’s experience is valuable, as well.
How Aljamain Sterling Wins vs. Zalal
If an opportunity to control Zalal’s back presents itself, you have to like Sterling’s chances to dominate the round. However, the favorite’s own prowess in those situations means I don’t know which fighter would have the definite edge on the ground.
Instead, the blueprint for “Aljo” might be at striking range. He lands 1.42 more significant strikes per minute than Zalal, and I think people forget that his varied kickboxing attack had a cumulative +10 striking differential over the current 135-pound champion Petr Yan in their two-fight series.
Sterling has fought four fighters who have held UFC gold, and Evloev will likely get his crack by the end of 2026. He’s thrived at times at distance. Youssef Zalal hasn’t seen anyone close to that sort of puzzle on the feet.
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How Youssef Zalal Wins vs. Sterling
Athletic advantages could carry Zalal, who trains at the great striking gym Factory X Muay Thai, past the former champion.
The Kattar fight showcased phenomenal footwork and an ability to time his entries into range well. That sort of timing also produced a sweet highlight finish against Jack Shore in 2024:
It’s not as if we haven’t seen Sterling wobbled. Marlon Moraes and Sean O’Malley both knocked out Aljo despite his strong striking defense (59%) overall. Zalal has never been stopped in 24 pro fights, so the durability edge has to lean his way, too.
Zalal’s keys to victory are to make a statement early with a big individual shot or moment. From there, he might slow down Sterling’s pace and survive any sort of grappling advances to get his hand raised.
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Sterling vs. Zalal Prediction, Final Pick for UFC Vegas 116 Main Event
I’ve developed a predictive UFC model that uses pre-fight stats, fighter attributes, tendencies, and historical finishing outcomes to estimate a fighter's win probability, how often they win by finish, and the exact method of victory.
Much of our Sterling vs. Zalal breakdown will lean on the model's analysis of the fight.
All UFC predictions and analysis — model or otherwise — are the opinions of writers who are not investment professionals. Picks are not based on PrizePicks Team Picks payout multipliers, and are not recommendations to trade.
Sterling vs. Zalal Model Results for UFC Fight Night
My model has Sterling as 55.1% likely p to win, despite entering as the underdog. The model is valuing his significantly higher level of competition and volume when striking. In a fight that could involve plenty of scrambles, you have to land strikes or submission attempts to score.
Even with Zalal’s high volume of submission attempts, Sterling hasn’t been subbed since his UFC debut in 2014.
That’s where the model is running dry when projecting high-level offense for Zalal, who has mustered just 3.03 significant strikes landed per minute.
Zalal’s historical ability to survive is why the model projects Sterling wins by decision 40.2% of the time, but the Moroccan’s 4-5 record in decisions as a pro shows why a 25-minute fight could slant the direction of the former champion.
Of note, the model thinks Zalal is nearly twice as likely to find a finish, highlighting his athleticism and higher historical knockdown rate (0.48%). While the overall verdict slants toward Sterling, Zalal has a higher chance of producing a singular moment that stops the bout.
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Sterling vs. Zalal Pick on PrizePicks for UFC Fight Night
Here is our top Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal pick for PrizePicks UFC in Saturday's main event.
Make your UFC picks on fighter stats like significant strikes, total rounds, fight time, and takedowns on PrizePicks Team Picks for every UFC Fight Night bout.
Youssef Zalal – 58.5 Significant Strikes
This projection leans heavily on the additional volume that could come from a 25-minute fight. Zalal has only eclipsed 55 significant strikes twice in his 12-fight UFC career.
Five of Sterling’s last six foes were also held below this mark because he often wrestles himself, with 8.17 takedowns attempted per 15 minutes.
The area where this fight takes place has significant variance. Both fighters usually welcome ground matchups, which is why they both have a sub-60% takedown defense. The grappling exchanges in this fight could be cinema, but that won’t help overall significant strike totals.
My UFC model also thinks this fight ends within the full duration 43.3% of the time. Two submission artists like this could absolutely find a tapout in Round 1 if one turns out to be the significantly better jiu-jitsu player with hindsight.
Make Your Sterling vs. Zalal Prediction on PrizePicks
Although Sterling is the dog for Saturday's UFC Fight Night main event, it's easy to find a slight edge for the former champ on paper. However, Zalal's athleticism and finishing ability make this a fight that you'll want to tune in for.
The UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal’s main event goes down this Saturday from Las Vegas, expected to start at 11 p.m. ET. Before the fight gets underway, lock in your UFC predictions for the fight on PrizePicks and earn money if you're right.
Hit the PrizePicks app, pick More or Less on two or more fighter projections, including Sterling vs. Zalal, and lock in your Lineup to win if you're right. You can also predict UFC fight winners, method of victory, and more on PrizePicks Team Picks, now available in 35 states.
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