Ranked UFC featherweight contenders Aljamain Sterling and Youssef Zalal will vie for a spot in the title conversation tonight in the UFC Fight Night main event, live from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.
We will give you an in-depth preview of every main card fight for UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal, including our UFC Vegas 116 predictions, model analysis, and PrizePicks UFC picks. The UFC Vegas 116 main card is set to start at 8 p.m. ET on Paramount+.
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UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal Predictions for Main Card Fights
Before we get into our UFC Fight Night predictions for Saturday night, a brief intro on what you'll find below.
We've listed the payouts for who will win each UFC Fight Night main card fight via PrizePicks Team Picks; for example, a 2x means that result will payout $200 on a $100 entry. A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.
PrizePicks Team Picks payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. UFC winner markets available in 35 states.
Swaim’s UFC Predictions Model: How It Works
I’ve developed a predictive UFC model that uses historical UFC stats, fighter attributes, tendencies, and historical finishing outcomes to estimate a fighter's win probability, how often they win by finish, and the exact method of victory.
To avoid poor results from a small sample, both fighters must have 35 minutes of octagon time or 5 completed UFC fights to be run through the model, which is why some fights will be ineligible.
Each UFC Vegas 116 main card fight is listed below with this model data to help you make your UFC predictions on PrizePicks tonight.
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Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal Prediction for UFC Vegas 116
Fight Winner Payouts: Aljamain Sterling 2.04x | Youssef Zalal 1.75x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)
Weight Class: Featherweight (145 lbs.)
Sterling vs. Zalal Model Results:
We’ll see if a changing of the guard is upon us at 145 pounds. Youssef Zalal’s meteoric rise in his second UFC stint has been eye-popping, but at this stage, recent opponents like Calvin Kattar and Josh Emmett have tumbled out of the rankings.
Former 135-pound champion Aljamain Sterling is an entirely new level of competition. He’s 2-1 in this new weight class, with the setback coming via a tight decision to the undefeated Movsar Evloev.
The model responds well to Sterling’s historical volume (8.56 significant strike attempts per minute) and accuracy (52%) when striking, which should be a determining factor in the matchup between two elite grapplers. However, Zalal is lightning-quick at just 29-years-old, and seems to be improving by the fight.
Neither of these fighters has been submitted as a pro, but their historical volume of attempts is why the model sees this fight as 32.5% likely to end by submission. It would be jarring to see, but it is also the statement both of these contenders are looking to make.
Sterling vs. Zalal Pick for PrizePicks
Youssef Zalal – 58.5 Significant Strikes
Zalal’s rise up the rankings came via his grappling. He’s only eclipsed 55 significant strikes twice in his 12-fight UFC career and averages a minuscule 3.03 significant strikes landed per minute.
There’s a path to him falling short of that mark again. Sterling’s weak historical takedown defense (44%) also comes with elite striking defense (59%).
Aljo would prefer his opponent to enter grappling exchanges, where these guys vie for position rather than score strikes. Five of Sterling’s last six foes were held under this mark because he wrestles (8.17 takedowns attempted per 15 minutes) himself.
If we end up in a 25-minute striking match, we would likely see both gentlemen sail over this mark — but that’s not historically in either’s game plan. This fight could definitely end early, too, per the model’s 43.3% projection of a finish.
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Norma Dumont vs. Joselyne Edwards Prediction for UFC Vegas 116
Fight Winner Payouts: Joselyne Edwards 2.70x | Norma Dumont 1.38x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)
Weight Class: Women’s Bantamweight (135 lbs.)
Dumont vs. Edwards Model Results:
Joselyne Edwards could be next in line for a title shot at the women’s 135-pound division if she can win a fifth straight bout over the division’s No. 3 contender.
Edwards has shown a rare violent streak in this division as she’s evolved under one of the sport’s best gyms, Xtreme Couture, to score four straight stoppages. This is undoubtedly a giant step up in competition, though, as Norma Dumont has beaten three former title challengers as she eyes a shot at gold herself.
The last time Edwards fought inside the rankings, Ailin Perez landed 6 of her 11 takedown attempts, and Edwards’ takedown defense (61%) is quite pedestrian overall. That seems to be the path of least resistance when Dumont has landed multiple takedowns in three of her last six.
Dumont has been to 10 straight decisions, though. Many have been close.
The model identifies a pretty substantial gap in both knockout power and submission danger in Edwards’ favor, and the 30-year-old Panamanian is an ascending stock. For someone not projected to win this fight, those are two really important things to consider.
Dumont vs. Edwards Pick for PrizePicks Tonight
Norma Dumont – 51.5 Significant Strikes
Seven straight opponents vs. Joselyne Edwards have fallen short of this significant strikes mark, and it’s no coincidence why.
When Edwards has faltered, it’s been her takedown defense at fault, and she’s hard to submit because she stays safe. It’s extremely difficult to rack up significant strikes in clinch or grappling situations.
Plus, the binge of early stoppages for Edwards has also undone opponents’ strike totals. It’s not like the Brazilian has been iron-clad tough in UFC, either.
Megan Anderson knocked out Dumont in her UFC debut. Edwards flattened her last foe, Priscilla Cachoeira, to mark the only (T)KO loss of Cachoeira’s career:
This combination of factors could influence Dumont’s final number of significant strikes in this one.
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Rafa Garcia vs. Alexander Hernandez Prediction for UFC Vegas 116
Fight Winner Payouts: Rafa Garcia 2.04x | Alexander Hernandez 1.69x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)
Weight Class: Lightweight (155 lbs.)
Garcia vs. Hernandez Model Results:
Alexander Hernandez has been in UFC since he was 25 years old in 2018, so we’ve seen the rise, the fall, and — amidst this current four-fight winning streak — the rebuild.
Hernandez obliterated Chase Hooper’s weak striking defense before finding the button opposite a 40-year-old Diego Ferreira. All in all, Hernandez has beaten up on the senior circuit with four of his last five wins coming over opponents at least 38 years old.
Rafa Garcia, 31, is an interesting matchup as rival Denver-based gyms square off here. Hernandez’s Factory X Muay Thai meets Garcia’s Elevation Fight Team — and both gyms are world-class.
Garcia’s dismantling of Jared Gordon at September’s Noche UFC event was his fourth win in five tries, and he’s a tough out with elite striking defense (61%) and wrestling upside.
Hernandez is the larger combatant, but Garcia has just one stoppage loss as a pro compared to Hernandez’s four. As my model results indicate, this should be a great, competitive fight with quite a bit of length.
Garcia vs. Hernandez Pick for PrizePicks UFC
Alexander Hernandez – 59.5 Significant Strikes
Rafa Garcia’s striking defense is tough to crack.
Historically, Garcia’s opponents land just 39% of their significant strikes, and Hernandez (40% striking accuracy) has issues of his own connecting. Against Austin Hubbard, 4-8 in UFC and now cut, Hernandez landed just 38% despite the pace of the fight totaling 79 significant strikes.
Garcia’s tempo isn’t as high, and his wrestling has been a real problem for opponents. He’s landed multiple takedowns in seven of his last nine bouts.
Even at a healthy 11.3 median projected minutes for this fight, Hernandez could struggle to score significant strikes if Garcia’s head defense and wrestling remain key paths to victory for him.
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Davey Grant vs. Juan Adrian Martinetti Prediction for UFC Vegas 116
Fight Winner Payouts: Davey Grant 1.75x | Juan Adrian Martinetti 1.96x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)
Weight Class: Bantamweight (135 lbs.)
Grant vs. Martinetti Model Results: N/A (Martinetti ineligible)
Have fun in the UFC’s bantamweight division. Juan Adrian Martinetti’s reward for one of the most exciting Dana White’s Contender Series fights ever? An eight-time UFC winner.
“Dangerous” Davey Grant is 40 years old in a division not kind to aging, but he hasn’t really shown any major signs of slowing down. He’s outstruck five of his last six opponents, with the exception coming in his last fight against a ranked fighter, Charles Jourdain. Less than nine months ago, Grant dominated Da’Mon Blackshear (5-4-1 UFC).
Martinetti, though, has already proven to be a wild man:
The Ecuadorian had one of the most violent auditions in UFC history vs. Mark Vologdin, who we saw in action last week. The problem is that Martinetti was rocked on several occasions with poor striking defense (48%) — and that was before this massive step up in competition.
Before the Dana White Contender Series, five of Martinetti’s last seven opponents had a losing record as a pro — and this was on the regional scene.
A younger, explosive Martinetti will almost always make things interesting, but the UFC pedigree is hard to ignore on the British fighter’s end.
Grant vs. Martinetti Pick for PrizePicks UFC
Davey Grant – 65.5 Significant Strikes
There were 447 total significant strikes thrown in Juan Adrian Martinetti’s war on the Contender Series. That’s just a pace that will produce a boatload of significant strikes without an early finish.
Martinetti hasn’t been finished in 18 pro fights, so it’ll be interesting to see if the change in competition level changes that. Overall, his durability has been dependable, as has Davey Grant's — who hasn't been KO’d in 15 UFC starts.
Men’s bantamweight also had one of UFC’s lowest finish rates as a division in 2025. If a full-length event is on the table, both of these fighters could be adding to their significant strike columns quickly.
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Montel Jackson vs. Raoni Barcelos Prediction for UFC Vegas 116
Fight Winner Payouts: Montel Jackson 1.56x | Raoni Barcelos 2.32x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)
Weight Class: Bantamweight (135 lbs.)
Jackson vs. Barcelos Model Results:
The depth of bantamweight really shows in a fight like this, where Montel Jackson and Raoni Barcelos are both unranked.
Jackson had the opportunity against Deiveson Figueiredo in Brazil last fall, but a lackluster effort where he landed just 30 significant strikes and ceded a pair of timely takedowns resulted in a close loss.
At his best, “Quik” Jackson has the highest knockdown rate in the division (3.10%) of fighters to compete at least five times, and his offensive wrestling (63% accuracy) has been solid.
Barcelos is one of the bantamweight division’s most prominent dark horses, which top-10 contender Payton Talbott learned in his 2025 loss to the Brazilian. Between Barcelos’ suffocating top game and elite striking accuracy (51%) and defense (61%), there are very few holes in his game.
The fact that Barcelos is 38 years old does raise some doubt about this matchup against Jackson’s power punches, but in an extended fight, the American’s recent issues with wrestling defense could be costly. This is an outstanding matchup.
Jackson vs. Barcelos Pick for PrizePicks UFC
Montel Jackson - 39.5 Significant Strikes
One of the reasons that Jackson’s knockdown rate is so high is that he just doesn’t throw with volume.
Jackson attempts just 5.12 significant strikes per minute by way of hesitancy on the feet, offensive wrestling, and, recently, ending up on the mat from his opponent’s advances. Even in a 15-minute fight, that’s roughly just 75-80 attempts with the challenge of landing on Barcelos’ historically sound head defense.
As mentioned, a Jackson win could also be thanks to his early power when fresh. That would also make it more difficult to rack up significant strikes.
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Marcus Buchecha vs. Ryan Spann Prediction for UFC Vegas 116
Fight Winner Payouts: Marcus Buchecha 1.69x | Ryan Spann 2.04x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)
Weight Class: Heavyweight (265 lbs.)
Buchecha vs. Spann Model Results: N/A (Buchecha ineligible)
Former Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion Marcus Buchecha has yet to taste victory with the world’s MMA leader, and he’s got another challenging test in the form of Ryan “Superman” Spann on Saturday.
Buchecha was unable to displace a massive Martin Buday, and Kennedy Nzechukwu’s long limbs bought him enough air space to survive. However, Buchecha is a world-class ground player who figures to tap heavyweights at some point:
Spann, though, has three UFC wins by knockout and figures to have a striking advantage in this spot. He’s 1-1 since moving up to heavyweight, and the loss to Waldo Cortes-Acosta, a top-five contender, hasn’t aged poorly.
Endurance issues have plagued both of these fighters, so it could come down to who has more gas in the tank.
It’ll be interesting to see if Buchecha can crack Spann’s 52% takedown defense to find a tapout, but don’t rule out the Texan catching him with a huge shot on an entry.
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Buchecha vs. Spann Pick for PrizePicks UFC
Marcus Buchecha vs. Ryan Spann – 5.25 Minutes Fight Time
It doesn’t usually take long to find the winner of a Ryan Spann fight.
Spann has only been outside the first round three times in his last 11 fights, and this matchup seems particularly vulnerable. The ground danger of Buchecha is one factor, but the Brazilian’s inexperience at distance against a power threat is another.
Similarly, four of Buchecha’s seven pro fights have ended inside five minutes. He’s just been to a decision in both UFC bouts against stalwarts and reliable grinders; Nzechukwu and Buday have gone to 11 combined decisions as rare heavyweights that can maintain a pace for all 15 minutes.
Fireworks could be the order of the day as these two styles clash.
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Make UFC Fight Night Predictions on PrizePicks
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal goes down this Saturday night from Las Vegas at the UFC Apex, with a stacked card of fighters that are looking to climb up the ranks. Before the UFC Vegas 116 fights get underway on Paramount+ at 8 p.m. ET, lock in your UFC predictions for tonight's card.
Just go to the PrizePicks app and pick More or Less on two or more fighter projections in UFC Fight Night, headlined by Sterling vs. Zalal, and lock in your Lineup to win real money on the fights if you're right.
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All UFC predictions and analysis — model or otherwise — are the opinions of writers who are not investment professionals. Picks are not based on PrizePicks Team Picks payout multipliers, and are not recommendations to trade.
