Kayla Harrison vs. Amanda Nunes Prediction, UFC 334 Picks, How Each Wins

The Mount Rushmore of women’s MMA is pretty clear. Ronda Rousey, Valentina Shevchenko, and Amanda Nunes have their undisputed spots as longtime champions and elites.

Former PFL two-division champion Kayla Harrison might join them if she can silence doubters about a weak strength of schedule against Nunes, who exits a three-year retirement to set up this superfight at Madison Square Garden.

Below, we'll give you our Kayla Harrison vs. Amanda Nunes prediction for the UFC bantamweight title in the co-main event of UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit.

The Harrison vs. Nunes fight expected to start around 10:45 p.m. EST on Paramount+, depending on when the other main card fights conclude. Let's get into our full fight breakdown, including how each fighter could win.

Make your UFC 334 picks on the Harrison vs. Nunes title fight on PrizePicks!

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Kayla Harrison vs. Amanda Nunes Prediction, Preview for UFC 334 Co-Main Event

Below are the payouts for who will win the Harrison vs. Nunes fight via PrizePicks Team Picks. For example, a 4x means that the result will pay out $400 on a $100 entry if correct.. 

Kayla Harrison: 1.56x to win

• By KO/TKO: 8.33x
• By Submission: 2.94x
• By Decision: 4.00x

Amanda Nunes: 2.32x to win

• By KO/TKO: 4.00x
• By Submission: 16.66x
• By Decision: 5.88x

‍Team Picks payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks; a 1.5x payout is more likely than a 2x payout, which is more likely than a 4x payout, and so on.

For a while, it looked like Amanda Nunes’ 2023 retirement was final.

After all, the GOAT had cleaned out the division via a 16-2 UFC record, avenging her only setback since the start of 2015. Plus, she was a longtime training partner of PFL’s Kayla Harrison, so even if UFC had somehow signed the former Olympic gold medalist in judo, the two probably wouldn’t fight.

Oh, how times have changed.

Nunes departed American Top Team for her last two fights in the octagon, and words were exchanged vaguely on social media. The two had always eyed a matchup with each other down the road as the undisputed two best women’s 145-pound fighters ever.

That division is now extinct, so UFC will hold the grudge match for the women’s 135-pound strap on Saturday.

Harrison currently has it after a dominant, second-round submission of Julianna Pena, the former champion who looked totally overwhelmed from the opening bell. Kayla has now cleaned out three top-10 fighters in three UFC starts with an elite ground game:

The laborious weight cut to bantamweight has really made Harrison an unstoppable force. The UFC tried to test her with Ketlen Vieira’s world-class, 90% takedown defense, but she won every round. Therefore, Nunes and her 82% takedown D can’t be too intimidating.

Of course, much of this fight is predicated on what we’re getting from Nunes after over three years on the shelf, and we know much of it wasn’t spent training. She openly became a mother and embraced life after grinding in the gym.

At her peak, Nunes’ 0.92% knockdown rate (KD%) was almost unheard of in women’s MMA, and her power won most fights via intimidation if nothing else. She also landed 12 takedowns in her last two fights. There really was no stopping “The Lioness” at the peak of her powers.

We just don’t get opportunities like these often. Nunes and Valentina Shevchenko fought two close decisions, and that changed our hierarchy of the two forever. Enjoy this mammoth intradivision women’s superfight while it’s here.

Find UFC 334 Predictions + Picks for every main card fight HERE!

How Kayla Harrison Wins vs. Amanda Nunes at UFC 334

Even Kayla Harrison would acknowledge that she’s in deep trouble if a dialed, confident Nunes is keeping her at striking range.

Harrison had a -2 distance striking differential against Vieira. Facing one of the most potent power threats, adjusted for weight class, ever? It probably won’t end well.

She went just 2 for 8 (25%) on takedowns against Vieira, but I mentioned her elite takedown defense. Nunes’s mark isn't as strong on paper, and Amanda flatly never fought a woman — including a 125-pounder in Shevchenko — who had the physicality to floor her at will.

In Nunes’ 2021 loss to Julianna Pena, Pena taxed the G.O.A.T’s cardio with pressure and pace. If Harrison is ready for a hard 25 minutes, she could implement the same and get to a similar dominant position that allowed for that upset.

Pick Harrison to def. Nunes at UFC 334 on PrizePicks now!

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How Amanda Nunes Wins vs. Kayla Harrison at UFC 334

By her former division’s standards, Nunes was a credentialed wrestler herself. She posted 2.73 takedowns and 0.7 submission attempts per 15 minutes. Does she want to try Harrison there?

Probably not.

The blueprint for Amanda was laid by Larissa Pacheco, the one featherweight in pro MMA who has beaten Harrison. In PFL, she denied Harrison enough takedowns to win three rounds at striking range, and that was with a less severe weight cut than this one.

Much of Nunes’ path to victory comes from roadwork done before this fight begins. If a carbon copy of the G.O.A.T was transported to the octagon on Saturday, she probably dispatches Harrison's limited, one-dimensional game as Pacheco did. But, three years is a long, long time at the peak of a sport.

Pick Nunes to defeat Harrison at UFC 334 on PrizePicks now!

Kayla Harrison vs. Amanda Nunes Prediction for UFC 334 Co-Main Event

Swaim’s Predictive UFC Model: How It Works

I’ve developed a predictive UFC model that uses pre-fight stats, fighter attributes, tendencies, and historical finishing outcomes to estimate a fighter's win probability, how often they win by finish, and the exact method of victory.

To avoid poor results from a small sample, both fighters must have 30 minutes of octagon time or 5 completed UFC fights to be run through the model, which is why some fights will be ineligible. 

Harrison vs. Nunes Predictive Model Results for UFC 334

Offensively, Harrison might be limited at striking range, but my model actually sees her as the superior mitigator of damage at distance.

Her striking defense (66%) has been spectacular. It’s the highest in the women’s 135 rankings. Vieira landed just 39% of her attempts. If Nunes is waving and missing, that’s going to tax an already suspect gas tank at 38 years old.

If you’ll remember, my model shined favorably on Max Holloway against Conor McGregor in July. It has a lot of built-in mechanisms to account for a lack of recent activity, which is historically detrimental to fighters — especially at the top of divisions and/or in title bouts. 

Nunes’ last finish came against Megan Anderson, no longer on the roster, in 2021. In fact, six of Nunes’ last seven opponents are no longer on the roster. Her dominance — as pronounced as it was — came against a different era of UFC. There’s not a lot of confidence that translates.

In terms of an outcome, a Harrison finish (55.1%) is grading more likely than not. A submission (32.4%) is more plausible than a knockout (22.7%), but remember that a dominant ground finish where Nunes is stuck would also classify as the latter.

I’ve got this fight going the distance just 26.9% of the time. Harrison has only been to a decision in 1 of her 3 starts, and 12 of The Lioness’s 18 bouts were won via early stoppage.

Harrison vs. Nunes Pick for PrizePicks UFC

Amanda Nunes - 42.5 Significant Strikes

There are plenty of obstacles for a More from Amanda Nunes’ significant strikes projection on PrizePicks — and not all are in defeat.

If she’s all the way back, her power, a few stuffed takedowns, and Harrison also being no spring chicken (36 years old) could work toward a swift KO and the return of all returns.

But, Harrison’s style and defense are the primary obstacles here. As constant clinch work marries the striking defense metrics I mentioned earlier, the highest total for an opponent of Kayla thus far is 24 significant strikes.

For as many things as Nunes achieved, her rate of significant strikes per minute landed (4.55) was never particularly special. It was good, but just slightly above the current divisional average (3.73).

Make UFC 334 picks stats like significant strikes, takedowns, and more on PrizePicks now!

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Make Your Harrison vs. Nunes Picks on PrizePicks

UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit’s co-main event goes down this Saturday from Madison Square Garden in New York City! Before the fight gets underway on Paramount+, lock in your UFC predictions for the fight.

Head over to the PrizePicks app and pick More or Less on two or more fighter projections in Harrison vs. Nunes, and lock in your Lineup to win real money on the fights if you're right. You can also predict UFC fight winners, method of victory, and more on PrizePicks Team Picks, now available in 36 states.

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All UFC predictions and analysis — model or otherwise — are the opinions of writers who are not investment professionals. Picks are not based on PrizePicks Team Picks payout multipliers and are not recommendations to trade.