UFC Vegas 123 Predictions – Moicano vs. Nolan & All Main Card Fights Tonight

For the first time since 2020, the UFC will fight on Halloween this Saturday.

It’s a frightening matchup for rising Australian lightweight contender Tom Nolan. He steps up to easily the toughest fight of his career against brash Brazilian grappler Renato Moicano, who remains a star on social media.

Will Nolan be ready for the tricks, or will Moicano deliver his large fanbase a treat from the Meta Apex?

The UFC Vegas 123 main card features six fights, with Moicano and Nolan sitting at a pick ‘em in the main event, according to PrizePicks payouts.

In the co-main event, Jacobe Smith, an undefeated slam-happy wrestler at welterweight, battles formerly ranked veteran Randy Brown on short notice.

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Evloev's main card starts Saturday at 8 p.m. ET on Paramount+. We’re breaking down every fight with UFC Vegas 123 predictions, predictive model analysis, and PrizePicks UFC picks for Moicano vs. Nolan and the rest of the main card.

Make your UFC Vegas 123 predictions on PrizePicks, including on winners, method of victory, significant strikes, and more!

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UFC Vegas 123 Predictions for Moicano vs. Nolan & Main Card Fights

Before we get into our UFC Vegas 123 predictions for Saturday, here’s a brief intro on what you'll find below.

UFC Vegas 123: Moicano vs. Nolan’s main card is expected to start at 8 p.m. ET with the first main card fight. Here’s a full rundown of the proceedings:

• Main Event: Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan – Lightweight
• Co-Main Event: Jacobe Smith vs. Randy Brown – Welterweight
• Yana Santos vs. Luana Santos – Women’s Bantamweight
• Ode Osbourne vs. Cody Durden – Flyweight
• Zach Reese vs. Mickey Gall – Middleweight
• Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs. Farman Hasanov – Welterweight

We’ll list the payouts for who will win each UFC Vegas 123 main card fight, via PrizePicks. For example, a 2x means the result will payout $200 on a $100 entry. A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.

PrizePicks Team Picks payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. UFC winner markets are available in 36 states, including Florida, California, and Texas! 

Learn more about Austin Swaim's UFC model here, with all eligible results included below.

Renato Moicano vs. Tom Nolan Prediction for UFC Vegas 123

Fight Winner Payouts: Renato Moicano 1.75x | Tom Nolan 2.00x

Weight Class: Lightweight (155 pounds)

Moicano vs. Nolan Model Results:

Considering the overall career success, at 13-7, of Renato “Money” Moicano, he’s a living case study of how quickly you can make up ground by having a great personality.

At a certain point, MMA fans just want to see Moicano win to see what he’ll say afterward. Don’t let the antics or record fool you, though. The American Top Team product is a smart, dangerous grappler with more UFC wins via tapout (7) than not (6). He nabbed teammate Chris Duncan’s neck in March.

Like Duncan, Tom Nolan is a rising lightweight himself, rattling off five straight wins to earn his first career main event, but he’s made an upgrade. He now trains at City Kickboxing with Eugene Bareman as his dreams are becoming reality.

Many might not have changed a thing. The Aussie’s +1.10 striking success rate (SSR) is quality, and he’s doubled up Moicano in submission attempts per 15 minutes (1.4). That might give him a little confidence heading to the ground with such a credentialed jiu-jitsu player.

Above all, Moicano’s experience is going to make him a popular pick in this spot, but he’s 37 and petered out toward the end of a bout with Beneil Dariush two fights ago. Fading against this dangerous contender would be a problem.

Nolan hasn’t been perfect, either. His poor striking (48%) and takedown (58%) defense have made him rely on cage control and general athleticism to win recent bouts.

This fight is a pick ‘em for a reason, but my model has a hard time getting past what is an extremely favorable 11-year age gap for “Big Train."

Predict the Moicano vs. Nolan Winner at UFC Vegas 123 on PrizePicks.

Moicano vs. Nolan Pick for UFC Vegas 123

I do a lot of these prognostications where I have a good feel for the tenor of the fight and who wants to take what approach. That isn't the case here.

While Moicano looking to grapple is probably a given, what if Nolan’s strength, with a larger frame and 4-inch height edge, is just superior and it turns out the Brazilian’s experience at distance pays dividends?

These are the possibilities my model explores, but two key factors are that these two have combined for just 2 losses via submission in 41 pro appearances, and their knockdown rates (KD%) are sub-0.75% at striking range.

Compared to projections, the model’s verdict of a full fight (38.5%) is much higher than one might expect.

Moicano vs. Nolan – 11.25 Minutes Fight Time

Make Your Moicano vs. Nolan Pick for UFC Vegas 123 on PrizePicks.

Jacobe Smith vs. Randy Brown Prediction for UFC Vegas 123

Fight Winner Payouts: Jacobe Smith 1.33x | Randy Brown 3.12x

Weight Class: Welterweight (170 pounds)

Smith vs. Brown Model Results:

After UFC 332 in September, Jacobe Smith said any welterweight could get it within a month. When Randy Brown’s opponent, Carlos Leal, pulled out of the main event, that person to “get it” became “Rudeboy."

Smith is on top of the world at the moment. He’s 13-0 from Fortis MMA in Dallas, and he has smashed all four UFC opponents on the ground for a finish inside of 10 minutes.

The athletic specimen has posted a ridiculous 7.92 takedowns landed per 15 minutes before with basically no resistance, per an 85% accuracy.

However, as a stats guy, those numbers are pretty hollow. His four UFC opponents are a combined 11-17 with a pair of no-contests in their collective stints with the promotion. Brown, a 14-8 veteran who has been in this division’s top 15, is an entirely new task.

Rudeboy Brown has long been the division’s dark horse, and he’s only 36 compared to a tenure that dates back to 2016. At 6’3” with a 78” reach, his piston-like jab, long arms for submissions, and range-finding kicks have always been a problem.

With the age and experience comes a little attrition, though — plus the context of his previous opponents. The last win for Brown against a fighter under 38 years old was Wellington Turman (3-6 UFC) in 2023.

This is clearly a dangerous early storm for Brown to navigate, and he's been finished inside 10 minutes three times since the COVID break. Bu if the 7.5-minute mark rolls around and Rudeboy is still hanging around, he might teach the young buck a veteran lesson.

Predict the Smith vs. Brown Winner at UFC Vegas 123 on PrizePicks.

Smith vs. Brown Pick for UFC Vegas 123

Smith has faced so little resistance in UFC (and affiliated settings) that we’ve got marquee questions. What happens when guys can work back to their feet — or stuff the shots altogether?

Brown, with a historical 74% takedown defense, should answer some of those questions. But the last fighter Brown faced averaging north of 1.50 takedowns per 15 minutes was Belal Muhammad, who won a clean decision against him in 2017.

Here, a 5-inch height disadvantage works extremely well for Smith’s style, which is predicated on leverage and strength. He’s not looking to outpoint Rudeboy from a distance as much as score strikes in close.

Even if you're optimistic about the Jamaican pulling an upset, Rudeboy’s ability to extend this fight might help Smith’s significant strike totals, not hurt them.

Jacobe Smith – 33.5 Significant Strikes

Make Your Smith vs. Brown Pick for UFC Vegas 123 on PrizePicks.

Yana Santos vs. Luana Santos Prediction for UFC Vegas 123

Fight Winner Payouts: Yana Santos 3.33x | Luana Santos 1.28x

Weight Class: Women’s Bantamweight (135 pounds)

Santos vs. Santos Model Results:

Surely, matchmakers did this on purpose, right?

For just the second time in official UFC history, two fighters with the exact same surname will face off on Saturday. Good luck keeping the commentary straight.

In the red corner, Yana (formerly Kunitskaya) hasn’t always been a Santos, but her marriage to former middleweight Thiago “Marreta” Santos has changed that.

Under either label, the Russian has been a top-10 bantamweight contender since her UFC debut in March 2018. That was a title fight against MMA Hall of Famer Cris Cyborg.

She’s very aware of what she is and isn’t. The kickboxer has just 1 knockdown in 12 UFC appearances, and all seven of her triumphs have come via decision. She’s slowly worked on her takedown defense (51%) at American Top Team, and those improvements were enough to turn back Macy Chiasson last October:

Takedowns have highlighted Luana Santos’ bantamweight journey, so this is a great next test for both ladies. The Brazilian has clearly benefitted from the move up from 125 pounds, where weight concerns plagued her first four appearances.

She’s landed 7 takedowns in three fights at 135 pounds, including a keylock submission finish against Tainara Lisboa:

The model’s result feels like natural conventional wisdom in this spot. Luana, 26, is a developing, improving fighter who could exploit her grappling advantages if she’s able to floor this fight at will.

But if Yana can stuff the takedowns, another high-output decision makes plenty of sense.

Predict the Santos vs. Santos Winner at UFC Vegas 123 on PrizePicks.

Santos vs. Santos Pick for UFC Vegas 123

Luana Santos’ career-high mark for significant strikes in a bantamweight fight is 15. On that basis alone, this projection expects some resistance from “Foxy."

To this point, Yana hasn’t been submitted in 12 appearances, and Santos’ career-high for ground strikes in any fight is 2. If this fight is taking place on the canvas, chances are neither woman is landing significant strikes.

Largely at distance, Santos landed just 2.73 significant strikes per minute against Casey O’Neill in a full fight. That means if at least 5 minutes of this fight takes place in the clinch, it may be tough for the Brazilian to post a "More" at her historical pace.

Luana Santos – 34.5 Significant Strikes

Make Your Santos vs. Santos Pick for UFC Vegas 123 on PrizePicks.

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Ode Osbourne vs. Cody Durden Prediction for UFC Vegas 123

Fight Winner Payouts: Ode Osbourne 1.92x | Cody Durden 1.81x

Weight Class: Flyweight (125 pounds)

Osbourne vs. Durden Model Results:

It’s a win-or-go-home showdown between flyweight veterans in this matchup of striking versus wrestling. We’ll see if either Ode Osbourne or Cody Durden has made the requisite adjustments to avoid a precarious position.

Jamaica’s Osbourne entered the UFC as a powerful kickboxer, but time and time again, grappling has been his downfall. He even did a nice job defending 10 of 15 takedowns from Alibi Idiris in his last bout, but Adiris’ 6:10 in control time was still enough to win a close decision.

That’s actually been reversed on Ode’s record due to a drug test, too.

At distance, we’ve seen moments of brilliance. He’s dropped two of his last four opponents.

Some might say that, because of Osbourne’s woes, this matchup was custom-made for “Custom Made." A few years ago, Cody Durden might have dominated this spot, but he’s 35 and has lost seven of his last nine fights. 

Attrition is mounting for the American Top Team product, but he’s still a grinder who's attempted 7.96 takedowns per 15 minutes and lands a decent clip of them (48%). The Georgia native is third among active flyweights in career takedowns (35).

My model looks at Osbourne’s improved grappling defense positively in this matchup. Perhaps as recently as three years ago, he wouldn't have survived a full-length battle with Adiris.

Durden has recently had issues maintaining his wrestling pace later into fights, which is an unfortunate symptom that “Father Time” is knocking on the door.

Predict the Osbourne vs. Durden Winner at UFC Vegas 123 on PrizePicks.

Osbourne vs. Durden Pick for UFC Vegas 123

This is one of those projections that should correlate to who wins the bout.

That’s been the story of Durden’s career. He’s averaged 4.14 takedowns in wins compared to 1.40 takedowns in losses or draws. He can either get his wrestling going, or his -0.62 SSR suffers.

Despite his reputation, Osbourne’s takedown defense (66%) is above the flyweight average (57%). He’s stuffed 24 of the last 37 attempts (64.9%) in a more recent stretch of six fights against tougher opponents, too.

Cody Durden – 2 Takedowns

Make Your Osbourne vs. Durden Pick for UFC Vegas 123 on PrizePicks.

Zach Reese vs. Mickey Gall Prediction for UFC Vegas 123

Fight Winner Payouts: Zach Reese 1.25x | Mickey Gall 3.70x

Weight Class: Middleweight (185 pounds)

Reese vs. Gall Model Results:

We’ve got a meme fight at middleweight on the main card!

There are a lot of things — and not all of them nice — that you can say about Zach Reese and Mickey Gall, but the two have brought the action a vast majority of appearances. Halloween night may not be any different.

Texas’ Reese has all the tools necessary to entertain. At 6-foot-4, he carries plenty of knockout power while averaging 1.2 submission attempts per 15 minutes. There’s a reason his average fight time is just 6:01.

But “Savage” Reese has proven to be lacking a necessary quality in three of his four UFC setbacks: the ability to take punches. He’s been KO’d in the first round, although this could be a more forgiving matchup against Gall, a grappler moving up from welterweight.

After a credentialed amateur career in the Northeast, Gall made his UFC debut at just 1-0 — unheard of in this day and age.

We’ve seen the bumps from a 6-7 career in the promotion, but one thing is still very clear. You better protect your neck.

That highlight from 2021 was Gall’s last win. He’s lost four in a row, leading many to question his roster spot. Reese (+0.47 SSR) has been successful enough that if the Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt can protect his limbs, he could win this bout.

That “could” is holding a lot of weight for a guy who's struggled mightily with damage absorption against various foes.

Predict the Reese vs. Gall Winner at UFC Vegas 123 on PrizePicks.

Reese vs. Gall Pick for UFC Vegas 123

Perhaps the odd foundational flaw in Gall’s style is that he just doesn’t really get the fight to a place where he can win it.

Gall’s accuracy (32%) on 3.59 takedown attempts per 15 minutes has largely kept him at distance. Here, I’m not certain he'd be losing. The New Jersey native’s striking defense is 6 percentage points higher than Reese’s — even if his accuracy is 5 percentage points worse.

Reese’s 0.37% knockdown rate isn’t near as high as you might think, and he’s only dropped one of his 10 UFC-affiliated foes.

If a shift up to middleweight helps Gall’s chin, could we see a longer fight that primarily plays out at distance?

Mickey Gall – 20.5 Significant Strikes

Make Your Reese vs. Gall Pick for UFC Vegas 123 on PrizePicks.

Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs. Farman Hasanov Prediction for UFC Vegas 123

Fight Winner Payouts: Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani 1.31x | Farman Hasanov 3.22x

Weight Class: Welterweight (170 pounds)

These two 170-pounders have yet to be turned aside in three total appearances, earning a spot on this main card at the Apex.

Ever since an explosive head kick on the Contender Series, Jean-Paul Lebosnoyani has wasted no time trying to take a page out of Moicano’s book. The upstart “Mufasa” has shown well-rounded skills and the ability to have a little fun showing them off:

Lebosnoyani’s 0.78 KD% is a bit of a surprise as a smaller fighter in the weight class. On the regional scene, five of his eight wins came via submission. He’s averaging 1.9 attempts per 15 minutes but has yet to catch someone in a choke.

Farman Hasanov is looking to avoid being the first. The wrestler from Azerbaijan put on a show in front of his hometown crowd at Baku earlier this summer, scoring 17 (!) takedowns in a win over Eric Nolan.

It wasn’t the most exciting fight with just 36 combined significant strikes in 15 minutes, but it was a business-like effort:

I love this matchup. JPL hasn’t been taken down in three UFC-affiliated starts with elite anti-grappling tools. Hasanov showed he could get takedowns against Nolan, but his top control and submission game were non-existent.

The American could welcome potential wrestling advances here.

Predict the Lebosnoyani vs. Hasanov Winner at UFC Vegas 123 on PrizePicks.

Lebosnoyani vs. Hasanov Pick for UFC Vegas 123

Hasanov has just five pro fights. Only his UFC debut was extended beyond the 9-minute mark.

This is a fight where those early finishes might return. Lebosnoyani has a dangerous guillotine choke and, clearly from his DWCS bid, a head kick that is no joke early as these two are fresh.

Lebosnoyani’s first two opponents had just 3 stoppage losses in a combined 35 pro fights, and he’s not the largest guy. Hasanov is actually the same listed height, which might allow for him to show off a little danger during this first main card appearance.

Lebosnoyani vs. Hasanov – 10.25 Minutes Fight Time

Make Your Lebosnoyani vs. Hasanov Pick for UFC Vegas 123 on PrizePicks.

Swaim’s UFC Predictive Model for UFC Vegas 123: How It Works

Above are the results from my predictive UFC model that uses historical UFC stats, fighter attributes, tendencies, and historical finishing outcomes to estimate a fighter's win probability, how often they win by finish, and the exact method of victory.

The results for each fight are listed above as "model results."

To avoid poor results from a small sample, both fighters must have 30 minutes of octagon time or 5 completed UFC fights to be included in the model, which is why some fights will be ineligible for a result.

Each eligible UFC Fight Night main card fight is listed with model data to help you make your UFC predictions on PrizePicks today.

‍Follow Austin Swaim for more UFC picks, predictions, and analysis.

All UFC predictions and analysis — model or otherwise — are the opinions of writers who are not investment professionals. Picks are not based on PrizePicks payout multipliers and are not recommendations to trade.

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Make UFC Vegas 123 Predictions on PrizePicks

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan goes down this Saturday, with a stacked card of fighters who are looking to climb up the ranks. Lock in your UFC predictions for today's main card, which starts at 8 p.m. ET on Paramount+.

Just go to the PrizePicks app and pick More or Less on two or more UFC fighter projections for UFC Vegas 123, headlined by Moicano vs. Nolan, and lock in your lineup to win real money on the fights if you're right.

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