Alexander Volkov vs. Rizvan Kuniev Prediction, Pick for UFC 333

Just four total fights into his UFC career, Josh Hokit is fighting for the title.

The pool of true contenders at heavyweight is shallow. That makes fights like this one between Alexander Volkov and Rizvan Kuniev of the utmost importance, as both have a claim to be next.

Volkov has a competitive two-part series with champion Ciryl Gane already, and Kuniev might just be 2-1 in UFC, but he’s fought in the top 15 the whole time. Which Russian can get their hand raised in Abu Dhabi?

This featured bout of UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev is expected to start around 2:45 p.m. ET on Paramount+, depending on when the other main card fights conclude.

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Alexander Volkov vs. Rizvan Kuniev Prediction, Preview for UFC 333 Featured Bout

Below are the payouts for who will win the fight via PrizePicks Team Picks. For example, a 2x means that the result will pay out $200 on a $100 entry. 

Alexander Volkov: 1.75x

• By KO/TKO: 4.76x
• By Submission: 16.66x
• By Decision: 2.70x

Rizvan Kuniev: 2.00x

• By KO/TKO: 5.88x
• By Submission: 14.28x
• By Decision: 2.94x

‍Team Picks payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks; a 1.5x payout is more likely than a 2x payout, which is more likely than a 4x payout, and so on.

For several years, I’ve been of the belief (due to Jon Jones’ inactivity) that Tom Aspinall and Ciryl Gane were the cream of the crop in this division before Aspinall’s eye injury, but I don’t know who else you’d point to besides Alexander Volkov as the bronze medal.

The 37-year-old has won six of his last seven fights. At 6’7” with an 80” reach, he presents an unusual challenge at heavyweight in terms of length that doesn’t feel “skinny.”

That length has allowed him to post and maintain a +1.94 striking success rate (SSR) despite fighting in the rankings for a decade. In this seven-fight stretch, a -4 differential against Gane was his only time getting outstruck, and many felt he won the fight anyway due to 4:32 in control time:

I’m not sure how many more wins he’s got to stack to get back to Gane, but the problem — just as it was against Waldo Cortes-Acosta — is that he’s got a dangerous fighter in front of him again on Saturday in a division where one punch can change everything.

Rizvan Kuniev’s debut fight was against Curtis Blaydes; Jailton Almeida and Tyrell Fortune followed. From the moment he stepped off the Contender Series, the PFL alum, who trains in Dagestan, was one of the most well-regarded big guys on the roster.

Now, Kuniev doesn’t wrestle as much as others from his native territory, but he’s got unusual quickness and lateral agility for the division, posting a +2.10 SSR himself. He’s also dropped two of his five opponents in UFC and has a 0.81% knockdown rate (KD%). There’s plenty of pop in those shots.

Ceding just four inches of reach to Volkov, this is an intriguing, dangerous fight for the aging contender — as PrizePicks Team Picks payouts suggest. Outside a dreadful fight, this should be the last marquee win either need to finally compete for the title.

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How Alexander Volkov Wins vs. Rizvan Kuniev at UFC 333

I think an Alexander Volkov win here is much easier to envision for most.

Volkov has long been a master of range, keeping Sergei Pavlovich, Waldo Cortes-Acosta, and more powerful strikers than Kuniev at arms’ length. Those two combined for exactly 100 significant strikes in 30 octagon minutes, which is well behind the pace Volkov (4.84 landed per minute) will put out on average.

Many might say Volkov needs to “defend takedowns” here, and that’s been a problem. He’s stopped just 5 of the last 14 attempts he’s faced. But Kuniev has energy-management concerns and has historically attempted just 1.05 takedowns per 15 minutes. It’s a bullet point, but not a featured concern.

Lastly, I think the kickboxer has to protect his chin. He’s 37 with 51 pro fights, and I think his movement was a bit mechanical in a clunky fight with Cortes-Acosta. He’s absorbed considerably more career attrition than Kuniev, and that matters at heavyweight.

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How Rizvan Kuniev Wins vs. Alexander Volkov at UFC 333

Kuniev’s mission or objective is to find himself where Pavlovich and Cortes-Acosta were but walk into the fire. It’s a tough mental hurdle to take a punch from a massive human being, and that’s why those two got picked apart at a safer distance instead. 

Kuniev’s reach disparity isn’t enormous, but he will have to crash the pocket because it’s where he wins. He has more power, according to knockdown rates, in the pocket and can easily push Volkov up against the cage from there.

Efficiency on his takedown attempts will be key, too. Early exertion into low-percentage attempts could leave him absolutely gassed and hanging on for dear life against a sniper if the fight is extended.

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Volkov vs. Kuniev Prediction for UFC 333 Featured Bout

Swaim’s Predictive UFC Model: How It Works

I’ve developed a predictive UFC model that uses pre-fight stats, fighter attributes, tendencies, and historical finishing outcomes to estimate a fighter's win probability, how often they win by finish, and the exact method of victory.

To avoid poor results from a small sample, both fighters must have 30 minutes of octagon time or 5 completed UFC fights to be run through the model, which is why some fights will be ineligible. 

Volkov vs. Kuniev Model Results

In a pick ‘em fight, I was delighted to get a pick ‘em result.

Kuniev’s sample, over 57 octagon minutes, isn’t the cleanest when roughly 16 of that came on the Contender Series against fringe-level fighters who aren’t anywhere close to Volkov, so I was expecting it to overvalue him, but it doesn’t really seem that way.

Of Volkov’s half of the pie, 35.2% is represented as a decision due to his low 0.32 KD%. He’s been to four straight decisions, as well.

Kuniev’s is much more interesting. It really is leaning into an attrition angle for an aging Volkov, who has been KO’d just once in UFC by Derrick Lewis in 2018. A 22.7% chance for a knockout seems appropriate if he can crash the pocket.

With just two total career submission attempts between these guys in 22 combined UFC appearances, a sub doesn’t seem extraordinarily likely.

Volkov vs. Kuniev Pick for PrizePicks UFC

Alexander Volkov – 55.5 Significant Strikes

The lower this number is, the better the fight has likely gone for Kuniev. With that, I think it translates to your preferred winner, and my model isn’t really helping out in a pick ‘em.

There’s no denying Volkov’s volume in his type of fight. He’s eclipsed 80 significant strikes in three of his last five, and projections favor this fight to go the full distance even more than my model.

But it comes down to space. It’s difficult to score significant strikes in the clinch, in bottom position from a takedown, or unconscious from a large man hitting you in the face. All of those will be the game plan of Kuniev, who is 1-0 in Abu Dhabi this year.

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UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev’s main card goes down this Saturday from the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi! Before the fight gets underway on Paramount+, lock in your UFC predictions for the fight.

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All UFC predictions and analysis — model or otherwise — are the opinions of writers who are not investment professionals. Picks are not based on PrizePicks Team Picks payout multipliers and are not recommendations to trade.