Uros Medic vs. Kevin Holland Prediction for UFC 334 Tonight

There’s a reason Uros Medic is on the main card of UFC 334— and will be for several others.

The Serbian knockout artist hasn’t seen a second round in six straight fights, and the action isn’t expected to die down against hyper-active finisher Kevin Holland on Saturday at UFC 334 from Madison Square Garden.

Will Medic find the button, or can Holland build momentum back toward the rankings?

This featured Uros Medic vs. Kevin Holland on the main card of UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit is expected to start around 9:45 p.m. EST on Saturday, November 14, live on Paramount+ — start time is dependent on when the other main card fights conclude.

Below, we'll breakdown our Uros Medic vs. Kevin Holland prediction for UFC 334, including winner, stats, a UFC pick for PrizePicks, and how each fighter can win.

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Uros Medic vs. Kevin Holland Prediction, Preview for UFC 334 Featured Bout

Below are the payouts for who will win the Medic vs. Holland fight via PrizePicks Team Picks. For example, a 2x means that the result will pay out $200 on a $100 entry. 

Uros Medic: 1.56x to win

• By KO/TKO: 2.04x
• By Submission: 14.28x
• By Decision: 7.69x

Kevin Holland: 2.27x to win

• By KO/TKO: 4.54x
• By Submission: 5.00x
• By Decision: 9.09x

‍Team Picks payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks; a 1.5x payout is more likely than a 2x payout, which is more likely than a 4x payout, and so on.

I’ll periodically use the phrase “don’t blink” when it comes to an action-packed fighter, but even then, there’s a feeling out process. Fighters try to get their timing and rhythm.

Not Uros Medic.

The Serbian’s 3:41 average fight time is the third-shortest on the active roster behind notorious lightweight finisher Terrance McKinney and former heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall. 

Medic is a kill-or-be-killed, lethally accurate kickboxer, and “The Doctor” seems to be performing surgery faster and faster as he progresses. He needed just 30 seconds on the dot to flatten Daniel Rodriguez to cap the first event in his native country:

His reputation is defensively void, but the numbers don’t really bear that out. His striking defense (56%) is better than Kevin Holland’s (50%). He has been finished three times inside 10 minutes in UFC, but that could be the cost of doing business in a deep welterweight division.

We’ll see if Holland has the right tools to make it happen a fourth time. “Big Mouth” has produced a career that could make the UFC Hall of Fame despite a 16-12 current record, depending on how it finishes.

When it comes to activity, many fighters talk the talk, but Holland is the gold standard. He’s fought a promotion-best 23 times since the start of 2020. He’s lost to fighters that he’s clearly better than over a long sample because he’s not given himself the opportunity to prepare or cut to this welterweight division that suits him better. That was the case in a 2025 setback to the aforementioned Rodriguez:

With such a large sample, Holland’s +1.03 striking success rate (SSR) is rock solid. It really has been his takedown defense (57%) that has lost him plenty of fights in both divisions — but especially at 185 pounds.

Both of these gentlemen average less than 0.80 takedowns landed per 15 minutes, so we should predominantly see a striking battle here, but Holland has five UFC submissions on his record should a scramble give him an opportunity.

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How Uros Medic Wins vs. Kevin Holland at UFC 334

Some question Medic’s longevity, but two of his eight UFC knockouts have come outside the first five minutes. I really don’t think he needs to finish this fight early, but he does need to keep it standing.

“The Doctor” was submitted by both UFC fighters to take him down, Jalin Turner and Myktybek Orolbai. Those two have 5 submissions in 16 UFC wins, so it’s not to say his grappling is horrible, but Holland is similarly dangerous.

At distance, he has to navigate a 10-inch reach disadvantage to get into the pocket, even if Holland’s striking defense is somewhat poor as I mentioned. That’s challenging for any fighter in any weight class. Leg and body kicks will help.

Pick Medic to win vs. Holland at UFC 334 on PrizePicks

How Kevin Holland Wins vs. Uros Medic at UFC 334

Whenever you’re facing a knockout artist, “not getting punched in the face” is the first strategy.

But, how does Holland prevent that? He cannot be lackadaisical in letting Medic close distance in the name of showboating. And, it’s something Holland will do, trusting his vision to win. If it doesn’t, Medic’s division-best 4.30% knockdown rate (min. 5 fights) will make him pay.

Holland has realized his jiu-jitsu and length are an advantage in this division, securing a takedown in three of his last four fights. Urgency of getting Medic to a clinch situation — even if it’s just to take some steam off his strikes — is a must.

Above all, “Big Mouth” needs to lock in. That seems obvious, but he’s almost always saying or doing something that isn’t directly related to the fight, and the consequences are dire if it happens on Saturday.

Pick Holland to win vs. Medic at UFC 334 on PrizePicks

Medic vs. Holland Prediction for UFC 334 Featured Bout

Swaim’s Predictive UFC Model: How It Works

I’ve developed a predictive UFC model that uses pre-fight stats, fighter attributes, tendencies, and historical finishing outcomes to estimate a fighter's win probability, how often they win by finish, and the exact method of victory.

Medic vs. Holland Predictive Model Results for UFC 334

Knockout artists are almost always overvalued because those highlights are replicable at a higher level of competition, but Medic is the rare exception.

The 100th percentile knockdown rate in your division will do that for you. Plus, Medic’s 4.30% rate is also the only one above 1.00% (using current career-long data) that Holland has faced in 28 UFC fights. You could argue he’s four times more dangerous than any previous Holland foe ever.

That’s how you arrive on such hefty odds for a guy to find a knockout (47.5%), and there’s not much else doing for the favorite’s win path.

Holland’s split is somewhat interesting between submission (14.2%), decision (14.1%), and knockout (10.7%).

A decision would be the first time Medic has ever hit the cards, but Holland’s own knockdown rate (0.51%) and submission attempts per 15 (0.6) aren’t very notable tools to finish fights. Four of the last five bouts for Holland have gone the distance.

Medic vs. Holland Pick for PrizePicks UFC

Medic vs. Holland - 4.99 Minutes Fight Time

This feels like the scene in the matrix with the different colored pills.

Medic hasn’t seen the stools in 9 of his 12 UFC-affiliated appearances, which is an obstacle.

Not to shy away from as much attention as possible, seven straight Holland fights in this 170-pound weight class have started Round 2.

The favorite might have a difficult time solving Holland’s reach issue initially, and the American’s primary plan of attack here has to be to extend the fight into clinch situations he can dominate.

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The UFC 334: Gane vs. Hokit main card goes down this Saturday from Madison Square Garden in New York City! Before the main event gets underway on Paramount+, we'll get Medic vs. Holland on the main card.

It's time to lock in your UFC predictions for the fights before they all get underway..

Head over to the PrizePicks app and pick More or Less on two or more fighter projections in Medic vs. Holland, and lock in your Lineup to win real money on the fights if you're right. You can also predict UFC fight winners, method of victory, and more on PrizePicks Team Picks, now available in 36 states.

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All UFC predictions and analysis — model or otherwise — are the opinions of writers who are not investment professionals. Picks are not based on PrizePicks Team Picks payout multipliers and are not recommendations to trade.