UFC Vegas 124 Predictions: Cortes-Acosta vs. Walker & All Main Card Fights Tonight

The UFC Vegas 124 main card features six fights, with Waldo Cortes-Acosta (1.42x) a moderate favorite over John Walker (2.70x) in the main event, according to PrizePicks payouts.

The heavyweight division is my favorite for many reasons, but I added a new one this week.

It saved this weekend’s main event from the Meta Apex. With the original one canceled due to injury, Dominican boxer Waldo Cortes-Acosta and Brazilian slugger Johnny Walker said, “Hey, we don’t have to cut weight. We’re ready to go.”

The end result? An absolute banger to cap a card loaded with top prospects.

In the co-main event, top-five strawweights look to stay in the championship mix duel as American wrestling standout Tatiana Suarez will test her ground game against Virna Jandiroba.

UFC Fight Night: Cortes-Acosta vs. Walker's main card starts Saturday at 8:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+, and we’re breaking down every fight with UFC Vegas 124 predictions, predictive model analysis, and PrizePicks UFC picks for Cortes-Acosta vs. Walker and the rest of the main card.

Make your UFC Vegas 124 predictions on PrizePicks and earn real money if you’re right on every fight, including on winners, method of victory, significant strikes, and more!

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UFC Vegas 124 Predictions for Cortes-Acosta vs. Walker & Main Card Fights

Before we get into our UFC Vegas 124 predictions for Saturday, here’s a brief intro on what you'll find below.

UFC Vegas 124: Cortes-Acosta vs. Walker’s main card is expected to start at 8:00 p.m. ET with the first main card fight. Here’s a full rundown of the proceedings:

• Main Event: Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Johnny Walker — Heavyweight
• Co-Main Event: Tatiana Suarez vs. Virna Jandiroba — Women’s Strawweight
• Davey Grant vs. Elijah Smith — Bantamweight
• Billy Elekana vs. Lucas Fernando — Light Heavyweight
• Priscila Cachoeira vs. Nina Milosevic — Women’s Bantamweight
• Mitch Raposo vs. Marcos Degli — Flyweight

We’ll list the payouts for who will win each UFC Vegas 124 main card fight, via PrizePicks. For example, a 2x means the result will payout $200 on a $100 entry. A lower payout multiplier signals a higher implied probability of that result based on user picks.

PrizePicks payouts are live at the time of writing and are subject to change. UFC winner markets are available in 36 states, including Florida, California, and Texas! 

Learn more about Austin Swaim's UFC model here, with all eligible results included below.

Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Johnny Walker Prediction for UFC Vegas 124

Fight Winner Payouts: Waldo Cortes-Acosta 1.42x | Johnny Walker 2.70x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Heavyweight (265 lbs.)

Cortes-Acosta vs. Walker Model Results:

Sean Brady and Gabriel Bonfim were supposed to clash at welterweight, but Brady suffered an injury. Left without many options, UFC brass gave a couple of “anywhere, anytime” big guys a call, and they’ll deliver.

I could understand Waldo Cortes-Acosta’s desire to get the bad taste out of his mouth. He’s lost consecutive close decisions to Alexander Volkov and Curtis Blaydes on the heels of winning eight of his previous nine to climb into heavyweight’s top five.

“Salsa Boy” is a former baseball pitcher that is still throwing heat. Nine of his 17 pro wins are by knockout with a 0.84% knockdown rate that can catch folks napping off his fundamentally sound jabs and low kicks.

His speed has allowed for a +1.59 striking success rate (SSR), and his 69% takedown D is well above the division’s average (53%). With the basics squarely in his direction, Johnny Walker will try to make this one wild.

Walker hasn’t usually had much trouble doing that. His 7:03 average fight time across 18 appearances indicates he’s here for a good time — not a long time. Mick Parkin was his first victim at heavyweight after a long-anticipated move up from 205 pounds at UFC 332:

Walker’s drawbacks are obvious, though. He’s been KO’d in four of his seven UFC losses with poor boxing defense (45%), and there’s really been a “feast or famine” quality to his aggressiveness, leaving him at a shockingly low amount of significant strikes per minute (3.98) for a heavyweight with so many early finishes.

Cortes-Acosta’s power is his first real “chin check” at heavyweight, and it’s not one many passed until the Dominican reached the top five. Walker’s divisional debut was interesting, but that 215-second sample isn’t enough to convince me he’s ready to take punches from more powerful foes.

Predict the Cortes-Acosta vs. Walker winner at UFC Vegas 124 on PrizePicks.

Cortes-Acosta vs. Walker Pick for UFC Vegas 124

Waldo Cortes-Acosta – 42.5 Significant Strikes

Walker fights are typically a car crash or the most boring sparring sessions you’ve ever seen. I really don’t know what approach Cortes-Acosta will bring because it’s not as if he’s not prone to a fight longer than it needs to be, per an 11:00 average fight time.

All significant strikes aren’t equal, and that’s why Waldo can land so many per minute (5.03) at heavyweight without dropping rivals. He has power; it’s just not utilized at all times.

A quick and dirty average of Cortes-Acosta’s significant strikes in his last five bouts (29.6) might make this line seem simple, but he didn’t have to conserve energy for five rounds on short notice in any of those.

Make your Cortes-Acosta vs. Walker pick for UFC Vegas 124 on PrizePicks.

Tatiana Suarez vs. Virna Jandiroba Prediction for UFC Vegas 124

Fight Winner Payouts: Tatiana Suarez 1.47x | Virna Jandiroba 2.50x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Women’s Strawweight (115 lbs.)

Suarez vs. Jandiroba Model Results:

I genuinely can’t believe these 115-pound contenders have dodged each other for so long — especially with different flavors of the same game.

Now, a lot of that has to do with Tatiana Suarez’s health. Suarez competed just twice between July 2019 and February 2025, battling various injuries. In that time, nine of Jandiroba’s 13 fights with UFC took place. There wasn’t really a crossroads, until now.

Jandiroba is still looking to get another crack at champion Mackenzie Dern after a competitive decision loss last fall, where she landed 9 takedowns. “Carcara” is a world-class grappler and jiu-jitsu player that averages 3.13 takedowns and 1.4 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

But if there’s been a downside, it’s that she’s been incredibly uncomfortable at distance. Her -0.59 SSR isn’t good, and that was how Dern boxed her way out of that jam.

I’m not sure Suarez has the upper hand there. She’s landed 15 or fewer distance strikes in nine of her 10 UFC appearances, and her career-high mark (42) isn’t convincing. But Suarez’s wrestling background has allowed her to land 4.52 takedowns per 15 with stellar accuracy (45%), and she’s posted over 8 minutes of control time in half of her starts.

All bets could be off if this is a 15-minute striking match, but it’s a fascinating battle of approaches on the ground. Suarez’s strength and her top game are excellent, but her overall takedown D (57%) is much worse than Jandiroba’s (72%) as a measure of who could dictate positions in this matchup.

You’d also have to give the edge to the underdog, a CBJJE world champion in jiu-jitsu, an edge in submission danger, too.

Predict the Suarez vs. Jandiroba winner at UFC Vegas 124 on PrizePicks.

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Suarez vs. Jandiroba Pick for UFC Vegas 124

Tatiana Suarez – 24.5 Significant Strikes

If there was ever a fight where you'd know in three minutes whether a projection cashed or not, it’s this one.

As mentioned, Suarez has a 90% rate of landing fewer distance strikes than this in her career, but she’s never faced an opponent where it’s even a consideration to avoid the ground. Is Jandiroba, posting 10 dangerous submission attempts in her last five fights, the right person to force it?

I genuinely wish I had a better answer, but Suarez does carry a two-inch reach edge in this matchup, which could be helpful if that answer is “Yes”.

Make your Suarez vs. Jandiroba Pick for UFC Vegas 124 on PrizePicks.

Davey Grant vs. Elijah Smith Prediction for UFC Vegas 124

Fight Winner Payouts: Davey Grant 3.33x | Elijah Smith 1.29x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Bantamweight (135 lbs.)

Grant vs. Smith Model Results:

It is sink or swim for star 135-pound prospect Elijah Smith on Saturday.

Smith, a second-generation UFC fighter who learned at the feet of his father (Gilbert), has put the division on notice with his freakish athleticism. He’s finished two of his three opponents in grappling exchanges, including a 2025 contender for “Knockout of the Year”:

As he’s crested model eligibility, I’m a little surprised how plain his metrics are — even knowing two of his first four UFC-affiliated starts went the distance. His striking (46%) and takedown (53%) are both below the divisional average. His margin for error is wide in firefights, but he’s also faced competition that is a combined 7-12 in UFC.

“Dangerous” Davey Grant is a massive step up. The Englishman is now 40, but he’s won five of his last seven, including Da’Mon Blackshear, as he was surging toward the top 15. He’s seemed to embrace the “gatekeeper” role and just slammed the door shut on Ecuador’s Juan Adrian Martinetti:

At distance, not many can keep up with Grant’s torrid pace (12.40 significant strikes attempted per minute), which has enabled a +1.54 SSR that ranks in the top 15 in the division (minimum five fights).

Smith’s path, like Blackshear’s, is through the underdog’s 65% takedown defense, but Blackshear landed just 1 of 5 takedowns against him. Grant also hasn’t been submitted since July 2018, bucking his career-long rate of losses via submission (62.5%).

If the prospect gets stuck in Dangerous’s dojo at striking range, I’ll be the first to put him on upset alert.

Predict the Grant vs. Smith winner at UFC Vegas 124 on PrizePicks.

Grant vs. Smith Pick for UFC Vegas 124

Davey Grant – 40.5 Significant Strikes

This projection seems set on how Grant should be performing at 40 instead of how it actually has gone.

First, seven of Grant’s last eight fights have started Round 3, including the bout with Blackshear. A first round club-and-sub by Charles Jourdain is the lone exception, and that’s pretty much what a “Less” is banking on here.

In those seven extended fights, Grant has averaged 110.3 significant strikes. That’s been full striking bouts, defending takedowns, and anything in between.

Vince Morales, who lost nine of his 12 UFC bouts, posted 40 significant strikes in a full decision against Smith just 19 months ago. How does the division’s best cockroach fare?

Make your Grant vs. Smith pick for UFC Vegas 124 on PrizePicks.

Billy Elekana vs. Lucas Fernando Prediction for UFC Vegas 124

Fight Winner Payouts: Billy Elekana 3.57x | Lucas Fernando 1.26x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Light Heavyweight (205 lbs.)

Top prospects at 205 will war in a striking-versus-grappling battle in this one.

At the very least, that better be the plan for “Son of Susie.” In a division not known for much grappling danger, Billy Elekana is riding consecutive submission wins and a three-fight streak of victories overall entering this matchup. Junior Tafa was his latest victim of come-from-behind fashion.

The 31 year old’s lateral quickness at distance is solid, but he’s failed to put out meaningful offense, landing just 2.71 significant strikes per minute. He’s also shown a susceptibility to leg kicks. The obvious (at least to me) strategy here would be to try and find Lucas Fernando’s back.

That’s because Fernando, at UFC 330 in Philadelphia, put on a kickboxing clinic against Rafael Tobias. His +56 striking differential was equally impressive as it was menacing. He stalked Tobias for over 11 minutes before a knee to the body did the trick:

But that was Fernando’s debut, and he’s shown some warts on main stages previously. He lost to Cesar Almeida on the Contender Series with a -43 striking differential, and Azamat Bekoev (2-2 UFC) easily controlled him for a win in LFA. Those fights were at middleweight, and he’s never even entered a grappling exchange at 205 pounds!

That ambiguity leads me to believe that Elekana could have more success than projections expect if he commits to the right game plan. However, if the American tries to test his fortunes at distance with Fernando, the Brazilian’s low kicks and jabs are extremely effective.

Predict the Elekana vs. Fernando winner at UFC Vegas 124 on PrizePicks.

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Elekana vs. Fernando Pick for UFC Vegas 124

Lucas Fernando – 31.5 Significant Strikes

Tobias showed enormous heart to fight through a beatdown in his debut, but I don’t have those same expectations for Elekana.

He’s realistically been dropped twice in four UFC appearances, even if Bogdan Guskov got credit for a choke instead of a knockdown against the wounded Vegas native. Elekana’s 46% striking defense is poor. Just a few minutes at range against a sniper like Fernando could be all she wrote.

But what if he grapples? Well, that will also curb striking totals — like the 28 total that Fernando mustered against Almeida. Fernando’s 6.90 significant strikes landed per minute at distance were more “good” than “special.”

One way or another, don’t be surprised if this is a quick night at the office.

Make your Elekana vs. Fernando pick for UFC Vegas 124 on PrizePicks.

Priscila Cachoeira vs. Nina Milosevic Prediction for UFC Vegas 124

Fight Winner Payouts: Priscila Cachoeira 4.54x | Nina Milosevic 1.17x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Women’s Bantamweight (135 lbs.)

A placement on the main card of this one makes me wonder if, win or loss, we’ll be saying goodbye to “Zombie Girl,” who is now 38 and will have made it through 15 completed fights on Saturday.

Priscila Cachoeira is the aptly named fighter. Her -3.10 SSR might stand as a women’s bantamweight record forever as the worst SSR among those with at least 10 appearances. Most fighters can’t take that much damage, keep coming forward, and even land a few knockout blows of her own.

But the gameplan has become very clear. She’s 0-5 as a pro to submission outcomes, so really, the power shots are all she has. She can’t win minutes at distance, and the floor is lava.

In any realm, Nina Milosevic will look to push through the “prospect” phase of her career at 2-0. She beat a winless fighter, Hailey Cowan, in dominant fashion during the UFC’s event in her native Serbia:

I was most surprised by her +2.17 SSR against Cowan, an Xtreme Couture product. Milosevic looked comfortable at distance when her regional tape was extremely ground-dominant. She’s tremendous with body triangle control and ground-and-pound but was still developing her submission offense.

Obviously, Cachoeira is a great measuring stick. She’s out of answers when the fight hits the ground, and that’s Milosevic’s preference for where this fight takes place.

Predict the Cachoeira vs. Milosevic winner at UFC Vegas 124 on PrizePicks.

Cachoeira vs. Milosevic Pick for UFC Vegas 124

Priscila Cachoeira – 36.5 Significant Strikes

At 9.88 significant strike attempts per minute, the one thing you can’t say about Cachoeira is that she’s not willing to take one to eat one.

I’m just not sure she’ll get the opportunity. Against fighters who scored multiple takedowns or ground finishes, she averaged just 22.4 significant strikes, topping 30 on a single occasion in 2019.

There have been times when striking matchups created a brawl, but Milosevic’s extreme urgency to get the fight into the clinch both against Cowan and on the regional scene imply she’ll take the smartest approach.

Make your Cachoeira vs. Milosevic pick for UFC Vegas 124 on PrizePicks.

Mitch Raposo vs. Marcos Degli Prediction for UFC Vegas 124

Fight Winner Payouts: Mitch Raposo 2.85x | Marcos Degli 1.38x (via PrizePicks Team Picks)

Weight Class: Flyweight (125 lbs.)

The main card opener is a flyweight debut for Marcos Degli, who I previewed on the Contender Series just over a month ago. Degli barely got a scratch on him in a second-round submission win with a +14 striking differential, so why not re-rack it for the actual bright lights?

As a friend and training partner of Carlos Prates, I wrote up all about Degli’s boxing, speed, and power… just for him to score 3 takedowns and find the choke instead. That’s a message, though, that he’s a well-rounded fighter who is comfortable wherever the fight goes.

He’ll look for a spot in the rankings against Mitch Raposo. Raposo last faced the late Allan Nascimento in June, so his return is a bit emotional for that reason. Raposo, despite getting dropped with a -20 striking differential, got a controversial nod in a decision. But that wasn’t new. Three of his last four have been split results.

The American has struggled on the feet, per a -1.01 SSR, but he’s been able to keep grapplers like Nascimento at range with his 68% takedown defense and win on pressure and optics. There’s nothing judges dislike more than a bunch of failed takedowns.

That’s why I think Degli is well-equipped to show out in this matchup. He doesn’t have to force the grappling. In fact, he rode a four-fight (T)KO streak into DWCS. I’m not sure about a finish, given Raposo’s striking defense (60%) and historical durability, though.

Predict the Raposo vs. Degli winner at UFC Vegas 124 on PrizePicks.

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Raposo vs. Degli Pick for UFC Vegas 124

Marcos Degli – 21.5 Significant Strikes

Projections seem to be leaning toward an early finish for Degli, which would be a bit of a stunner.

Raposo, a New England Cartel product, hasn’t been KO’d in 14 pro fights, and his last submission loss in 2021 was before a combined 45 octagon minutes against Nascimento, Azat Maksum, and Andre Lima. If it hasn’t happened yet, is Degli’s jiu-jitsu, his second pitch, really the skill set that gets it done?

That would thrust the Brazilian into superstardom, but all four of Raposo’s UFC appearances have gone the distance. Degli would top this mark even with 15 straight minutes in the clinch just based on what appeared to be a functional work rate.

Make your Raposo vs. Degli pick for UFC Vegas 124 on PrizePicks.

Swaim’s UFC Predictive Model for UFC Vegas 124: How It Works

Above are the results from my predictive UFC model that uses historical UFC stats, fighter attributes, tendencies, and historical finishing outcomes to estimate a fighter's win probability, how often they win by finish, and the exact method of victory.

The results for each fight are listed above as "model results".

To avoid poor results from a small sample, both fighters must have 30 minutes of octagon time or 5 completed UFC fights to be included in the model, which is why some fights will be ineligible for a result.

Each eligible UFC Fight Night main card fight is listed with model data to help you make your UFC predictions on PrizePicks today.

‍Follow Austin Swaim for more UFC picks, predictions, and analysis.

All UFC predictions and analysis — model or otherwise — are the opinions of writers who are not investment professionals. Picks are not based on PrizePicks Team Picks payout multipliers and are not recommendations to trade.

Make UFC Vegas 124 Predictions on PrizePicks

UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker goes down this Saturday, with a stacked card of fighters who are looking to climb up the ranks.

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